Cold Weather Causes Higher Rate of Gun Homicides

The question of how temperature levels impact the urban homicide rate in major urban areas has vexed criminology researchers for decades. 

Part of the problem is that there is no effective model, no workable framework, that allows for a comparison of any two cities unbiased by culture and country.  Comparing gun homicides in Winnipeg with those in Wichita, to use two examples, isn't completely accurate because of cultural differences, but more so because of differences in laws between the two countries.

The identification of climatic opposites - cities with high and low average winter temperatures - is fairly simple.  Weather data is reliable and abundant.  And the methods of collecting temperature readings and then norming them into a seasonal average are consistent city-to-city, largely because of NOAA.

Recently criminal scientists have reached consensus that the populations of Houston and Chicago share so many common traits and are composed of nearly identical demographic and economic strata, that meaningful theories of behavior can be tested. 

The results of the studies are here (excerpted from a paper presented at a symposium in November):

Look at the differences in Average January High Temperature.  Houston's average temperature is fully 32F above Chicago's, while Huston's homicide rate is nearly 400% (give or take) below Chicago's.  This is a remarkably inverse correlation.

There can be little doubt that Chicago's lower average temperature is a primary cause of Chicago's far higher homicide rate than Houston's.  The data is damning.    And what's more, the need for global warming in northern cities like Chicago has never been more apparent.  Global warming reduces homicides.  What Chicago needs right now is more coal-burning electric plants to kick-start the rise of average temperatures and simultaneously drop-kick the homicide rate.

The science is settled.