Wednesday, July 13, 2016

It's a Mystery......nobody I know is voting for Trump!

Swing-state stunner: Trump has edge in key states

Did Donald Trump really just surge past Hillary Clinton in two of the election's most important battlegrounds?

New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

The race is so close that it's within the margin of error in each of the three states. Trump leads by three points in Florida — the closest state in the 2012 election — 42 percent to 39 percent. In Ohio, the race is tied, 41 percent to 41 percent. And in Pennsylvania — which hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1988 — Trump leads, 43 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton's campaign responded to the surveys by cautioning that while the swing states were always expected to be close, the urgent stakes of a possible Trump election remain high.
"We know the battlegrounds are going to be close til the end. That's why we need to keep working so hard," Clinton press secretary Brian Fallon tweeted Wednesday morning. "Trump is a serious danger, folks."

Trump, meanwhile, thanked his supporters for the strong showing, tweeting a celebratory series of images featuring Fox News graphics showing the Quinnipiac results. "Thank you!" Trump tweeted, adding "#ImWithYou," an implicit shot at the Clinton campaign's initial slogan, "I'm With Her."

In another blow to Clinton, a McClatchy-Marist poll of registered voters nationwide released on Wednesday showed Clinton's lead over Trump slip to three points, 42 percent to 39 percent, after leading by six points in a Fox News poll conducted in late June.

But other polls give Clinton an advantage in all three states. Including the new Quinnipiac surveys, POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average — which include the five most-recent polls in each state — gives Clinton a 3.2-point lead in Florida, a 2.8-point edge in Ohio and a larger, 4.6-point advantage in Pennsylvania.

While the Quinnipiac results are eye-popping, they don’t represent any significant movement — except in Florida. In three rounds of polling over the past two months, the race has moved from a four-point Trump lead in Ohio in the first survey, then tied in the next two polls. In Pennsylvania, Clinton led by one point in the first two polls and now trails by two.

(Of course polls don't mean anything this far out. There are two many things that will happen between now and the election. The conventions. More murders of policeman by the Black Lives Matters criminals. Another terrorist attack by an immigrant let in by Obama and Paul Ryan. Lots of stuff can happen and I think they all will work in Trumps favor. Not in the eyes of the sleazy media. Not in the eyes of people who can't get over that the both the Rhino establishment and the conservative establishment has been rejected in favor of a new America First Nationalism. There is a long way to go and jumping up and down about polls is just plain stupid)


Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

It is not so much Trump surging, as Hillary collapsing (which is even more astounding given the disparity of their ad spending), but Trump could start surging if he exploits her weaknesses. She is exceedingly weak.

Trooper York said...

I know right. It is never about Trump. The guy can't do anything right. All of those wins in the primaries are because of the other guys not being any good. Nobody votes for Trump because they like what he is saying and how he is saying it. Nobody likes how he is telling the politically correct to stick it.

It is a mystery how he gets any votes at all. All the right people say he is a clown and a short fingered vulgarian. A con man and a joke. Who are all these stupid people who are supporting him. I don't get it.

It's a mystery.

edutcher said...

Shades of Pauline Kael.

It seems to be a trend. Both the Peacock and Marist are showing the same thing.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

It is not so much Trump surging, as Hillary collapsing (which is even more astounding given the disparity of their ad spending), but Trump could start surging if he exploits her weaknesses. She is exceedingly weak.

Your point is well-taken. That Crooked Hillary tag has already taken root and now it metastasizes.

They're still fighting over Huma testifying, so Comey's testimony really ended nothing and the agents who worked on the investigationhad to sign NDAs.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

You are a tad defensive Troop. Trump is behind on fundraising like Romney was during the summer when he faced 0 so a ad campaign on Crooked Hillary has not happened yet. I assume it's coming, with Comey quotes. I am not criticizing Trump, just pointing out he really hasn't even begun to realty attack her, and when he does I suspect he might start surging.

edutcher said...

A good Surber piece on the point of ads.

Cacklepants is outspending him (are you ready?) 15 - 1 and Trump is within the MOE.

Very similar to Jeb! in the primaries (I know, I know...).

And keep something in mind. Yes, old media is watched by old people (the number of TV sets in this country is shrinking, an unbelievable stat for any Baby Boomer), but everything is more digital every day and even 4 years ago may turn out to be ancient history.

As for attacking Hillary, he may just be letting events attack her for him and thus lets him save his ammunition (sounds like Ivanka, Manafort & Co again). Right now, I have a feeling they're focusing on getting the ticket set up and that stuff.

Come next week should be different.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Trump support runs about 40% in polling and I suspect real support for him may be higher. I also expect he has room to grow.

Leland said...

Agree with Evi, and don't be defensive Troop. Hillary's numbers are dropping, she's the mover in the latest polls. Trump's parade of VP candidates haven't factored in, but I would say that will be a positive (AoS is perking up with the VP choices). Then we will have the convention, and fundraising will pickup. I see it as a good sign.

Until the parade of VP candidates, Trump was fairly quiet for a week going into the July 4th holiday. He wasn't the story. The story was corrupt Hillary. She got negative press, he got almost no press. Hence she moves down, he stays steady.

Leland said...

Heh! Rush just made the same point. It's Hillary going down, as Trump hasn't done much prior to these polls.

edutcher said...

E, I would agree. Puffington did a piece on the primaries in wwhich it interviewed several of the campaign managers and they all found Trump had a much more solid floor across the spectrum. Hillary probably doesn't have that. She can't count on the Bernies and she can't count on the Reagan Democrats.

A big issue is how many people were really paying attention during the primaries and how many in the last month. My guess is more are watching Hillary.

And that ain't good for her.

Now, something that plays into Trump's hands.

BlackLives want to pack heat to Cleveland for the convention. I also heard on the radio, they're blocking traffic in Minneapolis.

Trooper York said...

I don't think I am being defensive but of course it is possible. The thing is there is going to be a major "Bradley" effect in this election where a lot of people who will not say they are going to vote for Trump will do so in the privacy of the voting booth.

Hillary is only going down on Huma let's get real.

She has a base of support that she will not go down below that number. I think that ongoing events will favor Trump because he is on the right side of the issues. Law and Order. Trade. Immigration. Economics. Nationalism.

These polls show the effect of her attacks on coal miners and the white working class in general. It is only going to get worse for her. Especially if there are debates. He will beat her like a baby seal. Just the way he did with those so called great debaters in the primaries. Plus he won't let the moderators Candy Crowley him. So that is still to come.

If they debate. I don't think Hillary is going to agree to debates. Lets see.

edutcher said...

Trooper York said...

She has a base of support that she will not go down below that number

She has a floor, but where is it is the issue. There's still wrangling over how much of Bernie's platform she adopts and some of the Bernies supported him because they didn't want to perpetuate a dynasty any more than a lot of Rs did.

My guess is it's not as high as Pissy's 4 years ago.

PS Supposedly there will be debates, the schedule has been announced, but I agree with you. Too many unknowns for Cacklepants - another coughing fit, another 2 hour bathroom break and it's over.

I also can't wait to see how she gets to the podium to deliver the acceptance speech. Willie is in no shape to carry her.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Trump is behind on fundraising like Romney was during the summer when he faced 0 so a ad campaign on Crooked Hillary has not happened yet.

While fund raising is important and getting the word out about the candidate is even more important, people are missing the really big important point. This isn't the campaign of yore. Not your grandfather's campaign. It is a different world and if Trump were to continue to play by the "old" game plan rules, like McCain and Romney did, then he would most certainly lose.

Spending millions or even a billion dollars on glossy mailers, television ads, phone robo calls, giant billboards is basically throwing money down the toilet.

People throw the mailers wasted.

People do not watch 'live' television anymore. They stream their entertainment over services like Netflix, Amazon, Hulu. They record the shows and watch later. They SKIP over the commercials and any political ads will be fast forwarded at light speed. More money wasted.

People, especially young people, do not have land lines like they used to. They use cell phones. We have caller ID to screen out calls we don't want. Ours even shows up on the television IF we are watching it via the satellite connection. You can see who is calling and don't have to pick up. Robo calls or solicitations from fund raisers are just a giant annoyance and irritant. Wasted money.

Twitter, Facebook,many blogs, Youtube, Reddit The internet is the main sources of information for many. FREE face time on the 24/7 news media is great as well. Using the more modern forms of communication, and capitalizing on the internet/connectivity of people is a much more efficient use of money.

The amount of money raised, while nice and important in some ways, is NOT as important as how you use the money. I guess we could make a small hands analogy here in that it isn't the meat, it is the motion that gets the voters to rock and roll :-D

Trooper York said...

I just have a feeling there will not be any debates. Hillary is arrogant enough to think that she is above it. Unless the polls are tanking for her and I don't think that will happen because the polls are not really accurate because of the "Bradley effect." There are just too many people who will vote for Trump but will not admit it for one reason or another. Hillary might think the poll numbers are good enough so she doesn't have to risk a debate. She is very risk adverse and the media will not hold her to the same standard they would to a Republican. So she can skate without doing a debate at all.

edutcher said...

This is where we diverge. I think, having agreed, walking out would look awful, especially after the email mess.

Yes, she is that arrogant, but not to show up raises the "what is she hiding" thing.

The problem is, 4-1/2 hours on live TV in an Armani potato sack with only one bathroom break (if that) may be more than she could handle. I think we agree, but for different reason.

oopsy, another point is what that fundraising goes for.

Left out of the equation is the large, clunky staff and hangers on that Clinton's campaign must finance.

So he is also thinking like a good businessman.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Debates are dangerous for Hillary. It is too close for her to simply not do them, but expect a lot of gamesmanship to make them less risky for her. Trump needs to be careful on this so he is not set up by hostile questioners.

I know it will happen anyway (to some extent), but Trump can't redo Megyn Kelly in the general, because then the contrast is Trump vs. the hostile media. Trump has to go hammer and tongs on Crooked Hillary (and if he can tie in the crooked media are her henchpersons, all the better).

And yes there are some voters who will not say they are supporting Trump, but are going to vote for Trump. What percentage that is I do not know.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Dust Bunny Queen, agreed that media buys should be 2016 not 2000. Less traditional TV (although you want some in key demographics and markets) and more internet. Hopefully Trump's campaign is on that.

Hillary will have the support of the DNC which is far better than the RNC on GOTV.

edutcher said...

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

I know it will happen anyway (to some extent), but Trump can't redo Megyn Kelly in the general, because then the contrast is Trump vs. the hostile media.

interesting point made by Peggy Noonan (of all people), namely that, at a certain point, the media ganging up on Trump creates a sympathy factor (yeah, it does exist).

Hillary will have the support of the DNC which is far better than the RNC on GOTV.

Mostly when it comes to graveyards and importing people from out of state. Trump will be doing his own, I think, in the fashion of the primaries.

The RNC will get out the party faithful for the downticket candidates.

edutcher said...

This is off Fox, the Bernies are very angry.

Would you believe a SelloutSanders hashtag?

Suddenly, that old poll about 25% of the Bernies jumping to Trump is no joke.

Do I believe he'll get that many?

Probably not, but even 10% could hurt Hillary.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Even if the Bernie supporters don't jump to Trump (hey that rhymes!) I believe that many will just sit out the election. The passion in the black community is also very low compared to the voter turn out for Obama. I think this is why Obama is stirring up the racial war and trying to get the Blacks to be all ginned up to come out at vote.

They don't care who gets killed or murdered as long as they can play the blacks against the whites and against the police. Votes. Cynical of me. But that's how I see it.

Trooper York said...

The reason the conventional wisdom is that it is a catastrophe that Trump isn't raising and spending vast amounts of money is because he isn't hiring the consultants and the media teams from all of the other loser candidates. That is how it usually works. You know. The Nicole Wallace and Karl Roves and Rick Wilsons who are all over the place saying that Trump can't win because he is not hiring them to spend his money.

edutcher said...

oopsy, if the BlackLives crowd makes it another Long Hot Summer (I think you remember those /ducks), there will be an element of the black vote that will come out for him, if only to make the streets safe.

As was the case with Nixon. Comparisons are being made and I don't think it's an accident.

PS It's pretty well acknowledged that even a loss of 5% of the black vote would be a disaster for the Demos.

Leland said...

I think Hillary's floor with the base is far lower than anyone wants to believe or let on. True fact; Hillary garnered 1.2 million less votes in the 2016 Primary than the 2008 Primary, a 7% drop despite her winning. Bernie Sanders in 2016 actually had more delegates than Hillary 2008 (and Hillary actually won the popular vote over Obama in the 2008 Primary).

Hillary has an amazing following in the press and amongst the 1%. That may well be enough. But as Evi and DBQ noted, these people don't have the same power that was around in 2008. I think Hillary is the weakest Democrat candidate since Dukakis. John Kerry would have a better chance than her.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

No need to duck. I remember it well. All the chaos. Although there were some pretty good songs that came out of that era

There's something happening here
What it is ain't exactly clear
There's a man with a gun over there
Telling me I got to beware

I think it's time we stop, children, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down

There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speaking their minds
Getting so much resistance from behind

It's time we stop, hey, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down

What a field-day for the heat
A thousand people in the street
Singing songs and carrying signs
Mostly say, hooray for our side

It's s time we stop, hey, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down

Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
You step out of line, the man come and take you away

We better stop, hey, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
Stop, hey, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
Stop, now, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down
Stop, children, what's that sound
Everybody look what's going down

Everything old is new again. Sigh....this is one of the problems of getting old. You live long enough to see history repeat itself and watching all the stupid young people who have not learned a damned thing from the past. That and having to get up and pee in the middle of the night. Amirite?

Trooper York said...

That's the thing DBQ. I have seen this movie before. Trump has Nixon's momentum. Hillary had Nixon's personality. It is Nixon vs. Nixon so to speak.

edutcher said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
edutcher said...

But in '68, it was the New Nixon.

I think you were a little young to have seen him on Laugh-In.

oopsy, you are so right. It's why the Lefties have banned history - except People's history - from the classroom. You get a chance to learn from everybody else's stupid mistakes.

Anybody here can do some kind of Google search and they'll see how many time I brought up '68 in the last 5 months.

FWIW ; )

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

ed, 5% of sanders supporters going to Trump in a few battleground states gets Trump elected. Just a significant number Bernie supporters staying home (which is probably more likely than they voting for Trump) hurts Hillary badly.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Troop, If you have to choose Nixon vs. Nixon as you framed it, Trump by far has the better hand.

edutcher said...

We agree partly.

There have been rumblings of defections on the grounds part of what makes the Bernies the Bernies is they didn't want Hillary under any circumstances.

We're still 4 months out, but the thing I've noticed about them is they are extremely passionate.

You see more Bernie stickers than anything else. On that ground I take it as a wait and see.

Trooper York said...

Hey I was rubbing one out with Judy Carne in a bikini with the best of them.

Dad Bones said...

The Trumpinator, if you haven't seen it.

bagoh20 said...

Well it is true that he is a clown and a short fingered vulgarian, but he'll still get my vote. I'm not sure who really has more secret voters who are holding their tongue in shame. Both candidates have plenty to make you hold your tongue about what you must do, and I think that's how most people of both inclinations see their vote - something they must do to prevent the alternative.

I don't see much movement for Hillary no matter what she does. It's all up to Trump. He could run away with this thing if he started bullshitting the moderates and conservatives like he has the populists. Hillary can't move anybody away from Trump or toward her, and her negatives are so priced in already that she can't do anything else to blow the support she has. But, Trump could destroy her, if he was just smart and disciplined enough. She's a sitting duck, and he's shooting from the hip. He needs to take aim, control his breathing, and squeeze the trigger precisely and continuously. His magazine is high capcity on this lady. It should be an easy mission. I hope he gets some better help. He needs a huge lead in the polls for it to end up close, because we all know how that works.

bagoh20 said...

Bernie is such a sell out. I expect Trump will get plenty of his people, if he plays it right.

rcocean said...

"I expect Trump will get plenty of his people, if he plays it right."

Doubtful. With liberals/Leftists hatred of centrists/conservatives trumps everything.

edutcher said...

Some of those people really don't like Hillary.

that may trump a shaky loyalty to the Democrat party.

Remember, a lot of the Bernies were kids and, having no real knowledge of history, the Demos are just another brand to them.

edutcher said...

Back to the subject of Trump's running mate.

Saw a tweet saying it wouldn't be an attack dog. Of course that could be another red herring, but it occurs to me, if true, no Newt or Christie.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Some anti-Hillary Bernie supporters will go to Trump. But the majority know that the snake oil he's selling is as slippery as hers.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Any of you prognosticators actually live in purple states?

Re: Bradley - I think there's a difference between being embarrassed by your vote and being embarrassed for your country and the president you voted for.

With a mayoral election there's more leeway for error. Trump's lack of experience will probably sink him unless he somehow orders one of those Trump University Crash Course in Brain Surgery CD's on Being Presidential.

Trooper York said...

I think quite a few Bernie supporters will sit it out. That's a win for Trump because his voters are motivated.

edutcher said...

The only snake oil is Ritmo's, as always.

And the Ozark Mafia's goon squads are still roughing up Bernies, so a vote to spite Cacklepants is definitely a possibility.

Much will turn on what happens in the City Where The Brothers Love Each Other.

edutcher said...

Rhythm and Balls said...

With a mayoral election there's more leeway for error. Trump's lack of experience will probably sink him unless he somehow orders one of those Trump University Crash Course in Brain Surgery CD's on Being Presidential.

Ritmo's been binging on CNN again.

What grand experience does Madame Defarge have, pray tell?

Trump has run a successful enterprise for 40 years.

Her terms as Senatrix and Education Czarina of Arkinsaw were a bust, like wise he terms a Co-President and SecState, unless, of course, one considers Labia and Syrial successes.

Rhythm and Balls said...

These are state-by-state elections.

Trump will not win New York. He will not win any blue states.

His prospects in purple states don't look good, either. There are some conflicting polls and it's still very, very early but the majority have her beating him and I'm buying those odds.

Trump has two big things going against him: A visible lack of experience or even interest that he seems ok with not improving on and the fact that he only goes partway on blue collar issues, as well. It's great to hear him going on about trade and stuff like that but he never seemed as all-out committed to the plight of the low-wage worker as Bernie did.

He's anti-PC and makes that the centerpiece of his campaign. It's refreshing, but I'm not sure how much presidents can do about that stuff. It's symbolic. I'm skeptical about what "culture warriors" can do in that office. It really is a job, at the end of the day. The symbolic stuff only goes so far. It only went so far with Bush and it only went so far with Obama.

These are all just my intuitions and premonitions as someone who lives in a purple state, and as someone who supports neither candidate I realize I could be wrong - but at least have less of a stake in it. Which of course makes me less of a true believer than a guy like ed who confuses propaganda and campaigning with a simple, potentially helpful observation from afar. But his track record on guessing election outcomes speaks for itself (not good, from what I recall).

And we still don't know which purple state he's broadcasting his Carnac-like predictions, backed up as they are by force of threat and insult - from.

But he tends to be secretive that way. Like the man behind the curtain whom Dorothy wasn't supposed to be paying attention to.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Trump has run a successful enterprise for 40 years.

Her terms as Senatrix and Education Czarina of Arkinsaw were a bust, like wise he terms a Co-President and SecState, unless, of course, one considers Labia and Syrial successes.

You sure do have your talking points well rehearsed and drilled into that busy little cabeza of yours, ed. Maybe you could write them down on 3 x 5 cards and yank them out during that debate you'll be conducting on their behalf.

If you repeat them loudly and often enough (and insult enough independents and undecideds) you will surely win over all the Trump voters that you need. Maybe.

In the meantime those of us who actually have money aren't impressed with a quadruple bankrupts financial acumen, nor the fact that his business grew at less than the rate of the market generally over the course of his tenure over it - from when he inherited it from daddy till now.

Nor has he released his tax returns. Sounds like he's hiding something. Not that the guy ever exaggerates or anything. Surely he's a billionaire. Or almost a billionaire. Or a ten billionaire. It's so hard to tell when you're "rich. Really, really rich."

I suggest you show all those independents and undecideds the poster you keep of him over your bed, spout some more questionably misogynistic fixations regarding Hillary's foreign policy, and then you'll have this one in the bag.

Hatred and blind faith is always convincing to the non-believers, ed. And you sure do have plenty of that going for you now, don't you.

If that fails, you can always smoke out those Infidels to the Trumpian Religion.

Rhythm and Balls said...

I know one other thing.

Lately Hillary has been getting out there and doing something that Trump has never done and will never do.

She's admitting that she's made some mistakes.

Being humble and able to learn is a crucial component of being both presidential and a successful president.

edutcher said...

We heard it all before. "Mistaykes have bin mayde!".

Whenever the Ozark Mafia gets caught with its hand in the cookie jar, they "admit their mistakes".

And, as usual, Ritmo sounds off, rather than looking at the text of the post; otherwise, he'd know Trump is doing quite well in purple states.

Clearly, no news penetrates his gated community.

AprilApple said...

LOL - Balls, are you falling for her BS?

AprilApple said...

Lie and cheat now, ask for forgiveness later. (ahhhh she's only human) That's the Clinton way.

Rhythm and Balls said...

LOL - Balls, are you falling for her BS?

Are you falling for Trump's "never apologize!" crap?

Hey, I'm just looking at this from the outside. Or as Baghdad ed calls it, the Trump-like wall built by Mexico around my "gated community".

Rhythm and Balls said...

Oh, and ed - fuck you. You never met, let alone mingled with anyone who didn't either agree with you or fit right into your broken home lifestyle. You're as sheltered as a caged bird, you never amounted to anything. Your inability to succeed at anything in life is its own isolation.

Trooper - if he keeps with this "gated community" bullshit I reserve the right to wallop. I told him again and again that this is bullshit, he knows it's bullshit, I even offered him the opportunity to tell me his zip code so that we could compare "gatedness" between wherever I live and wherever Mr. Thousand Mile Wall Fortress America Supporter lives. I live in one of the least segregated places in America. There are no gates anywhere. Alleys lead right between housing for every income level imaginable. I have never seen anyone barred entry to any of the so many easily accessible events regularly and ubiquitously occurring here on account of income, appearance, anything. The guys is such an ignorant and offensive bastard that his only move is to lie like a rug about me, and if it comes down to hating me for doing economically better than him (or whatever it is), then I'll give back every bit as good to his insanely insecure self. I'm sick and tired of his bullshit. No one else here is as consistently ignorant, offensive and just a plain old dipshit.