Friday, July 22, 2016

Donald Trump……..Reagan….or Goldwater?


After a raucous convention we have to answer the essential question: Donald Trump the Republican nominee can either be Reagan or Goldwater. Which will he turn out to be? What will the actions of the party faithful and just regular everyday voters do to influence how he turns out in the view of history.

My view is that he can turn out to be a Reagan. Someone from the entertainment world who was dismissed and ridiculed by the elitists. Dismissed as dumb. Stupid. Not worthy of being President. Not capable of being President. Just not up to their standards of pompous gravitas. The only thing he has is the support of the common people. He is bringing something different to the table. Just like Reagan he is speaking the truth about things that the establishment and media want to hide or gloss over. With Reagan it was the Cold War and the effect of government over everything we do. With Trump is the importation of all the world’s problems with unregulated immigration and the crime and terrorism and loss of jobs that it entails to the benefit electorally of the Democrats and financially to the Corrupt Chamber of Commerce Establishment Republican types. Trump is far from perfect. Just as Reagan was far from perfect. He is a vessel not a messiah. He is bringing something that has been missing for many years in our politics. Nationalism. America First, Last and Always.

Now the dual establishment look at Trump as Goldwater. When I say dual establishment I mean the competing yet cooperative wings of the Republican Party. The Rhinos and the True Blue Conservatives.

There is the Rhino establishment that fought Trump tooth and nail but has now surrendered. They are halfhearted in their support of the duly elected Republican nominee. They are weak so they could not stand against him and have been co-opted by the Trump juggernaut. They have always been weak. But they have a lot of money so they can buy the whores like Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell who will bend over and spread for campaign cash and the illusion of power. But they won’t stand up. They see Trump as Goldwater who is heading to an epic defeat. You hear them every day. Even here at Lem’s Levity. Everything Trump does is wrong. Everything he does is stupid. He is really in this to throw it to Hillary. He will lose fifty states and both Houses of Congress. The Sky is falling. But they will still provide lip service to the Party because they are frauds and that is what they do. That is their rice bowl.

The Conservative Establishment also see Trump as Goldwater. They also think he will lose to Clinton. They have a sinecure that they have to protect. To be the permanent beleaguered opposition. To sell books and magazines and get votes by being true to their Conservative Principles. Now they never enact these principles into law. They only specialize in Failure Kabuki Theater. That is their rice bowl. Their High Priest Ted Cruz just gave an epic performance at the convention. He thought he channeled Reagan but he really channeled Nelson Rockefeller. Rockefeller lost the nomination in 1964 to Goldwater another insurgent. He never got over it. His personal ambition meant everything to him just like Ted Cruz. So he went down giving he delegates the double middle finger. Just the way the One True Ted did this week. Of course he never amounted to anything other than a short stint as an appointed Vice President. Cruz would be lucky to get that in the future.

Now the thing is I don’t know who Trump will turn out to be. Nobody does. If he turns out to be Reagan and gets two terms then it would be a mitzvah and the best possible outcome. He could be a very successful President. He is not bound by an ideology either Liberal or Conservative. He is a pragmatist. A Pro-American pragmatist. He might change the dynamic and the direction of our country. He won’t fix everything. He will be lucky to fix 20% of what is wrong. But it would be a start.
I think it is also possible that he turns out to be Goldwater. He could go down to a massive defeat. I think he would be the John the Baptist figure. The guy or girl who follows him will be Jesus. He will take the issues that Trump articulated and refine them and help set up a new party. Because I think the dynamic of our elections has changed. It has changed from Ideology to Identity. People will be voting on the basis of their tribes. Your race and your gender is your uniform. You can’t change. Obama and Hillary have pushed identity politics and will continue to do so. They have favored classes who get special rights and privileges. Not equality. Not a fair chance for everyone. Affirmative action with the governments thumb on the scale. Nothing will interfere with that. Not the laws on the books….they will ignore them. Not the customs of government….they will trash them. Not the religious belief of the people….they will fine and regulate them to confirm to their preferred social policies. You are marked by your race and your economic status. You have to give up your privilege and share what you have. You have to change your views of life, liberty and how you pursue happiness to make sure it conforms to their politically correct world view.

If Trump is Goldwater the person who follows him will be a totally different kettle of fish. Trumps voters will not go away. They will not acquiesce to the same old bromides whether they are sold by the Rhino Establishment or the Conservative Establishment. They will be seeking a different way. A way they can identify with in a visceral way. Someone will rise up to take the mantle of leadership of this movement. Someone slicker than Trump. Less bumptious. Less clumsy. Less Human as a matter of fact. Most likely he will also come from an area outside of politics. Popular entertainment in some way. An actor or a ballplayer. Or even a member of Trump’s family. Most likely Ivanka. You see it in France and Italy where the attractive daughters of the original leaders take up the cause and ride it further than the old man could ever do.  You can see this coming a mile away. History always repeats itself.

Time will tell. Trump will either be a Reagan or a Goldwater. It remains to be seen which way he will go. What do you think?

25 comments:

Sixty Grit said...

He is neither, times have changed and he is his own man. Quit trying to turn this into a rerun, Rerun.

ricpic said...

Who's The F**king Fairest?!

Trump is far from perfect.
So am I.
But the mirror reflects
A wonderful guy.

Trooper York said...

I know he is neither Sixty but people always seek historical parallels as a frame of reference. I mean the media frame him as Hitler. The peeper tried to frame him as Mussolini.

I think Trump tracks one of these two extremes. He is nothing like Bush, McCain or Romney. If anything he resembles an old timey candidate like William Randolph Hearst or Huey Long. But I do think it is an interesting discussion.

Trooper York said...

People forget that Reagan was dismissed as a joke. That every commenter brought up Bonzo and asked if this was the type of guy that we wanted as President.

Goldwater lead an ideological movement. Trump is leading an identity movement. It is not explicit yet. But as the campaign goes forward it will become more explicit. The identity he is pushing right now is American. Nationalist. Just as Goldwater pushed conservative. His efforts lead to an intellectual movement just as Trump is with the alt-right. There are many parallels.

Sixty Grit said...

He's more Rockefeller than Rocky, that's for sure - inherited wealth, halfway a commie, New Yorker, goofy looking, I could go on, but we won't know for sure until Megan Marshak rings down the final curtain.

ricpic said...

I'll bet Melania sees him as just a heavy heavy weight she has to bear when the headache excuse no longer works.

Trooper York said...

Trump has a lot in common with Rockefeller actually. That is a good comparison. Except that Trump inherited some of his money and multiplied it many times. He was involved in the rough and tumble of the real estate business that Rocky never experienced. Rocky was always in government and never worked for a living. I think his closest historical parallel is William Randolph Hearst.

edutcher said...

Reagan, definitely. Goldwater was always mad, took things a little too seriously.

Reagan and Trump are both happy warriors.

Trump knows how to have fun, likes girls (and they've always liked him right back) knows how to enjoy himself. Reagan had some of that - he got tired of Jane after a while, another Hillary.

Sixty Grit said...

He's more Rockefeller than Rocky, that's for sure - inherited wealth, halfway a commie, New Yorker, goofy looking

Rocky was always a shirker, just like Jay. Trump didn't coast with his money.

As for almost a Commie, that's Teddy Kennedy.

Sixty Grit said...

I am good with the Hearst thing, but does that mean that Trump's daughter will end up in the SLA robbing banks?

Is she shacking up with a dude named Steven Weed? Does she know anyone like Donald DeFreeze, which, I must say, just doesn't have the same, oh, I don't know, je ne sais quoi, as Cinque Mtune - which I must say is a name that screams male dancer in off-Broadway shows.

I won't be concerned until Trump's campaign slogan is changed to "Death to the fascist insect that preys upon the life of the people." Then I will know that The Donald has morphed into The William. Hell, they are already tied in bad taste in interior decorating.

Trooper York said...

No his granddaughter will rob the bank. I bet Tiffany's kid.

Ivanka's are Jewish so they will rob banks just without a mask or a gun. Just sayn'

Trooper York said...

I mean he does talk about Melania's rosebud all the time.

ricpic said...

We'll never know the dynamic in the Reagan-Jane Wyman marriage or why it failed. She was one magnificent looking woman. Must have been torture for him when it ended even if he did tire of her. That's right, it's a regular soap opera at Lem's place!

edutcher said...

Reagan fooled around on Jane, sorry.

Apparently, though he was a New Dealer, she was a closet Communist and quite the harridan.

He sought a lot of solace.

Trooper York said...

Reagan was a player back in the day. In fact he met this sexy young factory worker named Norma Jean when he was doing some photographs for the Army during the War. We could have ended up with Marilyn as the First Lady.

She would have given Melania a run for her money as the hottest first lady. Otherwise it is no contest.

Dad Bones said...

Ironic that some of the best satire on Trump can be found right here among his supporters.

Trooper York said...

Well Dad real Trump supporters are confident that he is going to win. Handily.

Trooper York said...

The Trump haters are humorless scolds.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Maybe he'll be neither one.

Maybe he'll be like Herbert Hoover, actually.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Sixty said it better. Rockefeller.

Rockefeller with a side of gild, the mouth of Jimmy Hoffa and the panache of a straight-man's Liberace.

edutcher said...

No, Rocky skimmed off the family money.

And it's a straight Liberace, but Ritmo's got it wrong.

Trump is elegant, not fabulous.

edutcher said...

For those interested, Cacklepants didn't wait a day out of respect.

he picked Kaine. What was it April said about 2 gray hairs?

One thing that may make it rough on him, he's a Pelosicrat and tries to have it both ways on many issues. He'll take one side of an issue to please the traditionalists, the other to please the Lefties, hiding behind a very flexible Cafeteria Catholicism.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Trump is elegant, not fabulous.

I thought he was a "blue-collar billionaire," edward.

Which is it?

Elegant or blue collar?

I didn't know this was the sort of thing in which your working class betters prided themselves, being "elegant."

Were Trump's "guarantees" about his penis size elegant?

Yup, ed. When I think of you I definitely think refined.

Rhythm and Balls said...

No, Rocky skimmed off the family money.

Where did Trump get the $500 million he used to continue his slower-growing-than-the-rate-of-the-market business?

Trooper York said...

He made in real estate and casinos. He is a smart guy. He only got one million from his dad. He made the rest himself. He did some of the biggest deals in NYC real estate history.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Trooper you know that's not true. His dad's business was worth $500 million. He grew it at a slower rate than the economy. Bags is a better businessman than both of us combined. He knows the truth. Support Trump if you must (hell, I might even have to do that now), but don't feel compelled to make stuff up for him to do it. That just makes him look like he's getting his supporters to do the things that Hillary supporters would do. No one needs to do that.