Monday, July 25, 2016

"Donald Trump bounces into the lead"

CNNDonald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.
    There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

    12 comments:

    Chip Ahoy said...

    That is to say, she kept her job.

    The difference? Donations to candidates are limited but donations to parties are not. Before Wasserman's displacement Wasserman shunted all Democrat donations to Hillary that should have been spread to all candidates and to help candidates down ticket. All Democrat money to Hillary. Now it is not. That's the difference.

    "At this point, what difference does it make?"

    None. Because that corruption worked to get Hillary as candidate.

    Well done, Debbie, from the capo's point of view. All it took was cracking up the entire party. The Democrats who remain are fine and dandy with Democrat corruption, so long as Democrats win.

    Thus Trump.

    Leland said...

    With those qualifications, how could Hillary's campaign pass on DWS?

    AllenS said...

    Contrary to a lot of people, Trump's speech was a total win-win.

    bagoh20 said...

    There could be no better outcome than for big name corrupt politicians to lose big time precisely because of their corruption, and I hope that's the message that is sent. This time the opportunity presents to send that message like never before. It's the one clear and helpful message you can send with your vote, especially having the unlikely candidate Trump winning. Don't vote for or against a person, but rather against a system, a set of tactics, a strategy, a disease in our nation. Yes, Repubs, Dems and Independents, vote your conscience, which we can all agree that is against corruption. The best outcome would be if Hillary came in third, or at least lose a bunch of votes to all other candidates.

    AprilApple said...

    Yet- Bernie still speaking at convention.

    AprilApple said...

    Money-grubbing corruptocrats stick together. It's called loyalty.

    Lem said...

    "NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today"

    Methadras said...

    The corrosion continues. We are long past corruption.

    edutcher said...

    Give it a week and see if (and it really may be an if) Cacklepants gets a bounce.

    One thing to keep in mind is last week was the first time a lot of people got to see The Donald, the family, Pence, and get an idea of the vision. First glance, a good many liked what they saw.

    Lem said...

    "NATE SILVER: Donald Trump would most likely win the election if it were held today"

    Silver was sure Trump would never win a primary, too.

    edutcher said...

    Anent negatory bounces, Bernies in Fluffia chant, "Lock her up! Lock her up!"

    edutcher said...

    PS Lem, here's a Surber post highlighting Silver's electoral map.

    I don't trust Silver worth anything, but take a look at all the light blue states.

    and consider the possibilities.

    Amartel said...

    Remember back all those days ago when "lock her up" was a hateful thing to say. The nerve of those troglodytes! Hateful! Now not so much. Unexpectedly. For once you can say "unexpectedly" without it being ironic.
    The Hillary mouthpieces are trying to promote the campaign theme of "love." How cynical is that? What moron is going to be, oh okay I'm in favor of that so I'll vote for Clinton. They do not respect their voters. Cory Booker's speech was incoherent. "Love" means voting for Democraps seemed to be the takeaway. Completely unclear how he got from point A to point B.