The deference cascade has already begun, but the electorate still hopes that they will voice their own "preference cascade." They will be disappointed.
I think it unlikely that both parties will cave to their insurgents: There is simply too much at stake for the established parties to cave. Their delegates can and will pull out all stops to install their choices to oppose any preference cascade. The established media will continue colluding with one or the other delegated candidates; insurgency media will back Trump, Cruz, or Sanders according to their preference.
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Added: Expect a couple of these moments at this year's conventions:
19 comments:
GOPe wants neither. They'd settle for a Kasich/Cruz ticket if they could get it, or a Ryan/Kasich ticket which would make them cream their pants. The idea that Ryan went into his don't pick me, but please beg me to do it appeal and that the GOPe would even consider it is only symptomatic of how utterly corrupt the system is. Your vote means nothing anymore. They proved it with CO.
If they wanted your vote to count, they'd make it illegal. -Emma Goldman (A quote from a radical leftist anarchist. Yes, hell froze over)
By "deference" I mean the RNC delegates deferring to the donor class. I don't think they want Cruz any more than they want Trump. The latter, especially, cannot be controlled. There isn't going to be a "gosh, we just can't have our candidate because the people reject him" moment. There's going to a very real, very unpopular force-feeding this season from both parties
So this RNC member Randy Evans' comment that clearing 1100 would be enough to secure Trump the nomination, that counts for nothing? I mean I don't know but the guy is connected.
Well, the Demos have already done it, but second thoughts still creep in about Hillary and her health, sanity, freedom from incarceration, and just general repulsiveness. Bernie's an even worse choice, but he's all the field they've got, thanks to Black Narcissus.
in the face of the Trump/Cruz insurgencies
This assumes Cruz was ever an insurgent and not merely a second Bush candidate
Problem with the theory is that they'd lose 40% of their vote if Trump and his people walked and with it, their control of Congress which is where the power and the goodies are.
And I think that 40% would stay sufficiently enraged to make sure the ones that escaped their wrath (remember, it takes 4 years to re-elect the whole Senate) this time would be cleared out in '18 and '20.
I agree they wanted to neutralize Trump with Cruz and dump him for a Whig, but it's clear Cruz has gotten awfully toxic, so they couldn't run him even if he was a more convivial excuse for a human being. And Ryan went over like a lead balloon, as I noted in another post. Who could they get to just bring in at the last second with any credibility?
The Demos are stuck with Hillary unless there is a meltdown or indictment, but the Rs have a real problem in that they ran 10 Whigs who, between them, garnered 40% of the votes actually cast and won but 2 states. Not a whole Hell of a lot to hang you hat on.
You're right about the Demos, but I think the Rs have no choice, but to go with The Donald .
And that's how they are beginning to see it.
ricpic said...
So this RNC member Randy Evans' comment that clearing 1100 would be enough to secure Trump the nomination, that counts for nothing? I mean I don't know but the guy is connected.
He said it, it's on the record. This isn't like one of the voterless things Cruz set up where the details are supposed to be secret.
If they try to renege, it blows up all over them. Remember, they're all looking at Cruz' numbers collapse.
An NY Congressman feels confident Trump can make better that 1237 and I think they're going on taking nothing for granted.
A very fair assessment of what we have in store.
Don't leave out lefties going completely bat shit crazy outside of the convention in Cleveland (possibly Philly too).
The RNC figure this election is lost. They just assume mitigate the harm. Why Ted? They figure he will crash and burn and that will shut up conservatives. They may go with Trump, figuring he will crash and burn too, but they are worried for the long term damage to the brand and a complete civil war in the party (there is less so with Cruz). But that could happen with Cruz too.
It should prove fun. Aren't you having fun yet?
The last couple time the total physical thing the Dr. gives me includes a thing to take home. It includes a popsicle stick I'm to use to transfer a smear of poo to an area of a prepared sheet, then close the flap and send off to lab to have looked at through a microscope.
How's that for a job?
I'm in the habit of saying, "Thank you. I'll do that." Then throw away the kit when I get home.
I can use the ballot for a new lab sheet that folds to protect the unpleasant smear, and GOP state headquarters for my new lab.
Their party has a very serious problem with this whole representation thing. It doesn't mean what they think. Now that I relax and think of fresh vengeance I realize how wonderful it is seeing their party ripped asunder like this. I should have expected it to be this messy.
We'll see. But the thing is, I've seen real passion to the point of head bashings, blood, and bullets and this is not that. And worse, when those voices from those times speak out now they sound so lame and lost and behind. I was listening to Goldwater's grandson and even he sounded threadbare worn out tired and lame. And my only thought was why are they dragging out F'n Goldwater name? Live! In person. A real live American dynastic name. Just the thing to make sense of the moment. Apparently no Udalls or Daleys, Rockerfellers, available today.
Ed, are you talking about Peter King? Seriously, I don't trust that guy.
I think I screwed up here accidentally.
I think I published Deb's scheduled post momentarily. I'm not sure. While I was scheduling mine, I saw hers scheduled then posted with a comment from Ed.
I rescheduled it back. Apologies if that was me. The rescheduling it back is definitely me. Apologies.
"There's going to a very real, very unpopular force-feeding this season from both parties."
And it will be legal. What are the legal avenues voters have, state by state, to compel the two parties to change their delegate rules? Will the judges just refuse to hear the cases for lack of standing? Will they say, a la John Roberts, participate and change the system from within.
No worries.
Evi L. Bloggerlady said...
The RNC figure this election is lost. They just assume mitigate the harm. Why Ted? They figure he will crash and burn and that will shut up conservatives. They may go with Trump, figuring he will crash and burn too, but they are worried for the long term damage to the brand and a complete civil war in the party (there is less so with Cruz). But that could happen with Cruz too.
It should prove fun. Aren't you having fun yet?
Evi, this is the last best chance we have of trying to stop the cementing of RMPC, but I've said this before, any republican who wins is only going to be pushing back the inevitable. Conservativism as we know it politically is dead. RMPC is too much of a tsunami to hold back anymore when you look at the demographic shift of who is a voter and what the pols are promising to those voters. If republicans lose, and I suspect they will, the GOP/GOPe will be fucked for good. There is no repairing the brand. It's a dead party walking. it will either have to transform to DNC light, or leap frog them in total, but even then it will take 25 years to do so and by then this country will be well on the road to Democratic Socialism. Long live the Constitutional Republic.
Methadras said...
Ed, are you talking about Peter King? Seriously, I don't trust that guy.
You must be joking.
If I meant King, I would have said it.
Evi L. Bloggerlady said...
The RNC figure this election is lost. They just assume mitigate the harm. Why Ted? They figure he will crash and burn and that will shut up conservatives
Wrong, but I understand your panic now the the Anointed One's chicanery is blowing up in his, and your, faces.
You thought he was going to outsmart everybody, but he just outsmarted himself. And the Conservatives aren't his property. He, and all his little acolytes have been trying manfully to convince the world of that, but when your top arbiters of who's a Conservative are a couple of Libertarians, you're going to to have a rough road.
The DC crowd would like to keep control of Congress, if possible, but it doesn't happen if the ticket goes down.
You guys thought you could ram Cruz down everybody's throats as the indispensable man, but it just hasn't worked and now, you're going to go all sorehead on everybody and run around screaming, "We're doomed!". don't be surprised if it turns out to be a small party.
deborah said...
There's going to a very real, very unpopular force-feeding this season from both parties.
And it will be legal. What are the legal avenues voters have, state by state, to compel the two parties to change their delegate rules?
Only pressure from the rank and file. I'm sure there are some state regs, but most of it is up to the party. Right now, the Demos are rethinking the whole superdelegate thing because, while it gave them the Choom Gang and the Ozark Mafia, it also gave them Walter Mondale, Dukakis, Lurch, Albert Gore, and now Hillary. It changes if there's a change at the top, the rank and file get restless, or if there's a long stretch in the wilderness.
Cruz is on a long slide to oblivion for what he's pulled and he'll take a lot of people with him. The more of the delegate poaching and voterless elections people see, the more the money dries up, the angrier they get, and maybe seats in Congress and state houses are lost (that's where the power is and the Whigs are in real danger of losing it). Right now, I think Rinse's job is hanging by a thread and a lot of state chairmen with him. There's a reason all this was kept on the QT, kind of like how the death camps weren't common knowledge.
Now that it's in the open, you're going to see people trying to find some cover as the light shines on them. Gateway and Last Refuge and Trump handed it to Drudge and Drudge made the whole world see it. Once the money dries up, the machines will, too. Stick around, this thing is just getting started.
Keep in mind, parties reinvent themselves or they die and something else takes their place. I hear a lot of people who can't wait to start a lifetime of complaining about how terrible everything is, but they also can't let go of the chance to give up now because everything isn't perfect.
You want perfect, put a bullet in your head, and go to Heaven.
Unless you're Catholic, in which case you go to Hell.
I had an insight that went like this: Kabong.
And now I've go a splitting headache and I'm not kidding. I really do need to stop thinking and do something productive like make a pop-up book or something. Maybe headaches are like a compass that way.
The insight came from being annoyed with Jeff Goldstein who made an appearance on his own blog after a very long absence. I think. But who is active on Twitter running continuously on about never Trump and traducing Trump supporters. Endlessly every night. Nothing else. Hostile even to neutral comments. A very real hostility. Now brought together on his blog in one brilliant post. It's music to the ears of antitrumpites.
The the linking thread on Insty, same thing.
Now. We have the YouTube video of Colorado civic-minded citizens come forward, traveled, spent time becoming familiar with the strange ways of becoming delegate, so mud enthusiasm the halls overflow, too many actual civic-minded and concerned citizens seek involvement, actual involvement with all this horesh}t to do their part, answer their call to duty, to save their communities, their state, their country.
But the Republican party in Colorado is too small to handle them all. All that effort and all they will have it 10 seconds to make their case. That's no discussion at all, where discussion is demanded for participation.
Please, do not counter Trump did not visit and satisfy the conceits of GOP state egos, there are plenty of people on video attempting access. My point stands, there are too many conservative people for the GOP to contain. The guild is too small. And they say so. Repeatedly. They say, "Get out!"
And "Shut up," and "You're stupid," "he and you are not really conservative," and a whole list of fresh epithets.
Confession of outlier: I've never had representation. Not once. Not one single time has either of these parties represented me and my lovely heart and my soul goes unrepresented politically on Earth my whole life. Le boo le hoo.
And now I think there are a lot more people like myself in this way, people concerned about things I'm not concerned about but still in the same trap, people concerned for protecting our border! Jesus Christ, what is so hard of comprehension about this? Very large swaths of voters remain unconvinced wide open borders for and for the U.S. alone is not a very good idea, and after decades the still do want representation on this very important subject and they're not getting it. Both parties are resolutely denying it. Resolutely! Where are these people to go?
They're tearing a new @sshole that's where they're going. They're going full on goatze pulling GOP wider. The party is too small to contain them. Is that graphic enough? Now they're screaming, "Get out!"
So many demographic shifts gone unrepresented by both of these present day parties. My goodness, neither party is large enough to encompass even a single individual fully.
In my case, none of my fibers align with either party. No issue I consider, no feeling, or moral instinct aligns with either party satisfactorily and never did. I've always considered myself such an oddball for not being able to fit. Not being able to align myself. And now the party, both, have diverged so far from their core constituencies and remained so small and so tight in they process and their willingness to accept a broader base while the voting public and active civic-minded conservative citizens all clamoring for notice and representation simply cannot be accommodated. The Republican party cannot grow, it can in numbers but it cannot expand outward to encompass more socially liberal, more sovereign-minded, more conservative with public money, more concerned for their family's future while maintaining other American ideals such as openness to immigration and free trade.
My insight is, "Wow, blow me down, this really is a guild and it really is precious, and it really is demanding, and it really is exclusive, and it really would rather be small than accommodate you. I meant me. Us. Let's say hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of people. Too small to accommodate us for one reason or another. Jeff's essay provided this insight.
Apologies for typos and autocorrect, but for nothing else.
Is Deference Cascade better than regular Cascade? I find just a little bit of that stuff goes a long way. You can actually feel how much of it makes water slippery. Then anything beyond that is overkill. And that turns out to be a lot less than I originally thought. Plus it's very strong and works great for other things too.
GOPe is pulling the same shit they pulled cycle after cycle after cycle, at this late juncture they're recycling their recycles and they're not even recyclables. They're in the wrong bins. It's ass uh nine.
The same shit aaaallllll over again. *rolls eyes so hard it takes my head with them* Again! Were we to track this GOPe repeated activity it would look like this:
poo ---->poo ----> poo ----> poo ----> poo ---->
The exact same poo all over again. Easy to read and to track. The very old Milquetoast Switcheroo for the fail the only candidate that can win they all say as a chorus they sing the same songsheet over and over and over as hymnal. Their tiny church too small to hold all the conservatives struggling to comply for the right of representation.
People of Cuba have more representation than they. People of China have more direct representation, people of Russia, name a State and they most likely have more representation than conservative American voters who don't fit Republican stringent strident antique template that has no room for them and tells them straight up, "Get out. Just go."
Eventually, it will dawn upon the sitting members of Congress, that if they steal or connive the nomination from Trump (or Cruz) that a HUGE portion of their voting base will be royally ticked off.
The result of this ticking off will be that they, the ticked off, will not vote in the Presidential election and then will make it their quest to kick every last one of those mealy mouthed, back stabbing, traitorous politicians out of their cushy seats. Even those who weren't actively involved in the theft will feel the burn.
The last thing any politician wants is to lose their power and therefor their money honey pot. In their own self interest, I believe that when push comes to shove, they will support Trump. Not because they want or like Trump, but because they like their own asses to be firmly ensconced in their Congressional seats.
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