"Kissinger, a longtime Putin confidant, sidles up to Trump"

"Back in the 1990s, Henry Kissinger, the legendary former U.S. secretary of state-turned-global consultant, encountered an intriguing young Russian and proceeded to ask him a litany of questions about his background.

As Putin climbed the ranks in the Kremlin, eventually becoming the autocratic president he is today, he and Kissinger kept up a warm rapport even as the United States and Russia grew further apart. Kissinger is one of the few Americans to meet frequently with Putin, one former U.S. ambassador recently recalled -- along with movie star Steven Seagal and ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, the likely next secretary of state."

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-kissinger-russia-putin-232925

If looks could kill, Putin would be dead

One assumes heads of state possess some degree of propriety, at least one should be able to presume such, but no, so many are just oafish chavs in expensive suits. 

The YouTube version is subtitled (cc) if this one is not. Check it out on YouTube if you like and see what this no-class jerk says.

Not knowing what Putin said had some viewers taking a stab at translation. One viewer on another site remarked that Putin said that he hadn't seen the Sia Chandelier video. That got a good laugh.

The Sia Chandelier video is controversial because it depicts a young girl of twelve years of age dancing in skin-colored leotard and to admit being fascinated, admit liking the video is tantamount to admitting being a paedo-perv.

So pretend you don't like it. 

The song is about Sia's addiction to alcohol. It is a powerful and beautiful song. The dancing is showing Sia's state of mind, the house, her spirit, in the grip of addiction, a naked girl buffeted between moods of happiness and depression. Swinging by the chandelier is doing whatever she wants under influence of alcohol, shown in the dance. Sia contemplates suicide in real life, shown by the curtains drawn to the girl's neck and waving goodbye. Finally calmed, still depressed but learning to live without addiction. The lyrics clarify the dance, the dance gives form to the lyrics and the immature girl appropriate. The dance is outstanding.

WSJ: "Russia Faces Harsh Criticism Over Malaysia Airlines Crash"

Mr. Putin said Russia would do everything it could to "ensure that an objective understanding of what happened becomes available to the Russian public," but reiterated his stance that Ukraine was at fault.

"This tragedy wouldn't have occurred if there were peace in that country, or in any case, if hostilities had not resumed in southeast Ukraine," he said at a Cabinet meeting on the economy, according to a Kremlin statement. "And certainly, the government over whose territory it occurred is responsible for this terrible tragedy." (read more)

A pro-Russian separatist at the site of a Malaysia Airlines crash

NYT: Putin Asserts Right to Use Force in Eastern Ukraine

"President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphasized on Thursday that the upper chamber of the Russian Parliament had authorized him to use military force if necessary in eastern Ukraine, and also stressed Russia’s historical claim to the territory, repeatedly referring to it as “new Russia” and saying that only “God knows” why it became part of Ukraine."

Speaking in a televised question-and-answer show, Mr. Putin also admitted for the first time that Russian armed forces had been deployed in Crimea, the disputed peninsula that Russia annexed last month immediately after a large majority of the population voted in a referendum to secede from Ukraine.

During the question-and-answer show, Mr. Putin stressed that he had the authority to invade Ukraine, but that he hoped it would not be necessary.

“I remind you that the Federation Council has given the president the right to use armed forces in Ukraine,” he said, referring to the upper house of Parliament. “I really hope that I do not have to exercise this right and that by political and diplomatic means we will be able to solve all of the sharp problems.” (read more)

WSJ: The West Leaves Ukraine to Putin

"'We're the chosen generation," says Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukraine's interim prime minister. He's referring to all those who made this winter's European revolution. For the first time since 1654, when Ukrainian Cossacks formed a fateful alliance with Moscow against Polish rulers, Ukrainians are heading back West."

Their timing is terrible. Two decades ago, when the Berlin Wall fell, the West embraced another generation of Eastern Europeans. Ukraine has gotten a different welcoming committee. An economically feeble European Union gorges on Russian energy and dirty money while lecturing Ukraine on Western values but refusing to defend it. Asking for Washington's help against Russian attack, Kiev finds a man "chosen" in the past two presidential elections to get America out of the world's trouble spots.

Vladimir Putin sees a West made soft by money, led by weak men and women, unwilling to make sacrifices to defend their so-called ideals. In the Ukrainian crisis, the image fits. Russia's president is many things, but most of all he is resolute. He took the EU and America's measure and annexed Crimea last month at minimal cost. Ignoring Western pleas for "de-escalation," Russia this weekend invaded eastern Ukraine. Just don't look for video of T-72 tanks rolling across the borders, not yet at least. (read more) 

The Unknown Known or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Don Rumsfeld

At the beginning of a documentary trailer, two time former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld is asked to read. He reads "All generalizations are false" and then he adds "including this one". It turns out, Rumsfeld was given to read a partial quote attributed to Mark Twain. I looked it up.

 

While thinking about the Hitler post from yesterday morning (I didn't add to it any thoughts of my own) it occurred to me that if all generalizations are indeed 'false', then, it follows that someday, some, if not all those generalizations, which guide and shape events today, might not be so (false) then. In other words, what we think we know today, what we think we are certain of today, may not be regarded as certain and true tomorrow.

There is no more rock solid generalization of moral certainty, today, than Hitler was evil. It's incontrovertibility is tantalizing. And yet, for the truth of Hitler's evil to be irrefutable, it seems to need to be constantly proven. We need to be constantly reminded of how evil Hitler was. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it said George Santayana.

We need to be reminded that there are certain things, we know we know. And we know we know them because they are true, well beyond the selfie photo op, meant to remind people, yet again, as if they needed to be reminded, that Obama is not Bush... My goodness gracious!

Loosing sight of the certainty of what we know we know, even if only so slightly as to be mistakenly interpreted, opened the door to someone who was also watching and interpreting. Putin had reset button ideas of his own. Putin can also take selfies.

"Satellites Show Russian Forces Poised Near Ukraine"

"NATO released satellite photographs on Thursday showing Russian military equipment, including fighter jets and tanks, that it described as part of a deployment of as many as 40,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. The release came the same day that President Vladimir V. Putin reiterated a threat to curtail gas sales to Ukraine."

"The photographs, taken by a commercial satellite imaging company called DigitalGlobe, offered some of the first documentary evidence of a military buildup that the West says Russia could use to invade Ukraine at any moment. They were released at a news conference in Belgium by Brig. Gary Deakin, the director of NATO’s Comprehensive Crisis and Operations Management Center." (read more)

NYT

Putin laughs

"When an interviewer recently confronted Vladimir Putin about Europe's American-made missile defense system the President of the Russian Federation couldn't help but laugh right in his face.

According to the journalist, NATO's missile defense system is pointed at and designed to protect Europe from Iran, not Russia."



via shtfplan

The Diplomat: "Interpreting Putin's Decision"

"So why has Putin risked Russia’s economic welfare and political space to swallow Crimea, push Ukraine out, and alienate the entire Western world? Is Putin “in another world” as German Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed he is? In my opinion, there are at least two considerations behind Putin’s decision."

The first is the realist, geo-political consideration. In Putin’s world, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Russia has lost nearly one fourth of its geography, one half of its population, and more than half of its GDP. Among the “lost” territories are those that are strategically important or militarily advanced, such as Ukraine and the Baltic states. With the eastward expansion of NATO, and the integration of former Soviet satellite states and republics in Eastern Europe and the Baltics into Europe, the traditional buffer zone between Russia and the West is increasingly squeezed and Russia’s space for strategic maneuvering becomes smaller with each year... (read more)

The second consideration is more psychological in nature. Following the end of Cold War, embracing the West was the first priority of Russian foreign policy. But to Moscow’s dismay, it found that the West still harbored strong reservations and considerable distrust. Years spent courting and wooing provided little of what Russia craved most: equal membership in the West and economic prosperity. Though Russia became part of the exclusive G8, it never enjoyed the full status and say of the other seven members, always remaining an “other.” Economically, the shock remedy proposed by the West and faithfully implemented by Boris Yeltsin didn’t bring the expected economic benefit. Instead, it took Russia’s economy into freefall, leaving the average Russian worse off than before.

It was Putin who saved Russia from its miserable condition. He readjusted both Russia’s domestic and foreign policies, and distanced the country from the West, instead seeking opportunities to resurrect past Soviet glories. As the Russian economy improved, the West found that its time was passing. The 2008 economic crisis hit the U.S. and Europe hard and they found themselves more reliant on the emerging powers, Russia included. It is Britain, France, and even Germany who are now busy appealing to Russian oil bacons to buy more and invest more. The balance of power between Russia and the West has shifted... (read more)

Russians, and especially Putin learned a hard lesson from the post-Cold War romance with the West: For all the talk of democracy and freedom, the fact remains that the strong dictate to the weak.

With Europe rotten and United States weakened, a resurgent and confident Russia will definitely not let a geo-strategically important former Soviet republic fall entirely into the West’s camp. By annexing Crimea, Putin not only secured Russia’s naval base and its strategic gateway to the Black Sea, he also sent a powerful message to Ukraine and the West: Ignore Russia’s legitimate strategic concerns at your own peril.

The Diplomat via ZeroHedge

Merkel backs US on the sanctioning of Russia

“If Russia continues on its course of the past weeks, that will not only be a great catastrophe for Ukraine. It will cause massive damage to Russia, both economically and politically,” [Chancellor Merkel] said. “None of us wants it to come to this, but we are determined to act. Let me be absolutely clear; the territorial integrity of Ukraine is not up for discussion.”

...Russia cannot suspend oil and gas exports without cutting off its own source of foreign revenue. Any such move would destroy its credibility as a supplier of energy, accelerating Europe’s long-term switch to other sources.

Russian companies have $653bn (£392bn) of foreign dollar debt, and must roll over roughly $150bn this year. Yields on five-year bonds have already spiked 200 basis points, even for blue-chip firms. The rouble has fallen 11pc this year after dropping 8pc last year, making dollar debts harder to repay. “It is going to be very difficult to roll over these bonds, and it will be at much higher cost,” said Mr Ash.

Capital flight reached $63bn last year. Former finance minister Alexei Kudrin said this could reach $50bn a quarter as the crisis deepens. The central bank has already raised interest rates sharply to stem outflows, pushing the economy into recession.

...“Russia could cut off 2.5m barrels a day of refined products such as diesel that are hard for Europe to replace since it has run down its refineries,” he said.

Germany is in an awkward position since it exports $50bn of cars, machinery and industrial goods to Russia each year. There are 6,200 German companies in the country with vast sunk costs. Last year alone they invested $105bn. Germany’s trade group BDA said a tit-for-tat sanctions war would be “painful” for Germany but “life-threatening” for Russia.

Igor Rudensky, head of the Duma’s Economics Committee, said sanctions will boomerang. “They are a double-edged sword, and Western states should be very careful,” he said.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Beyond the tinkering the US and NATO have committed in Ukraine, there is the larger issue of encroachment. Yes US and NATO have made a move to bring Ukraine toward the west, with Russia's sharp retort being the stealth occupation of the Crimea to protect the integrity of their only warm water naval base at Sevastopol.  As far as I know, Putin still denies the troops in Crimea are Russian, as he did in this press conference:

"QUESTION: Mr President, a clarification if I may. The people who were blocking the Ukrainian Army units in Crimea were wearing uniforms that strongly resembled the Russian Army uniform. Were those Russian soldiers, Russian military?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: Why don’t you take a look at the post-Soviet states. There are many uniforms there that are similar. You can go to a store and buy any kind of uniform.

QUESTION: But were they Russian soldiers or not?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: Those were local self-defence units.

QUESTION: How well trained are they? If we compare them to the self-defence units in Kiev…

VLADIMIR PUTIN: My dear colleague, look how well trained the people who operated in Kiev were. As we all know they were trained at special bases in neighbouring states: in Lithuania, Poland and in Ukraine itself too. They were trained by instructors for extended periods. They were divided into dozens and hundreds, their actions were coordinated, they had good communication systems. It was all like clockwork.  Did you see them in action? They looked very professional, like special forces. Why do you think those in Crimea should be any worse?

QUESTION: In that case, can I specify: did we take part in training Crimean self-defence forces?

VLADIMIR PUTIN: No, we did not."


Does this necessarily mean Russia has cause to annex Crimea, if Crimea itself votes to become part of Russia? Ukraine is a buffer country for Russia, so naturally it is one for Europe. 

Zero Hedge: "Vladimir Putin Nominated For Nobel Peace Prize"

"It would appear the Norwegian Nobel Institute is starting to lose it. Just a few years after President Obama won the Peace Prize (while mired in overseas wars), the director of the prestigious entity announced today that Russian President Vladimir Putin, accused of invading Ukraine - suspiciously un-peaceful action - has been nominated for the Peace Prize. Putin joins NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and Pakistani schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai as a nominee for the award to be announced in October." read more

I thought this was some kind of early April fools. It is not. It appears to be very real.

"Edward Snowden to Speak at SXSW Interactive Via Videoconference"

"On Monday, March 10 at 11:00 am, join us for a conversation between Edward Snowden and Christopher Soghoian, the principal technologist of the American Civil Liberties Union. The conversation will be focused on the impact of the NSA's spying efforts on the technology community, and the ways in which technology can help to protect us from mass surveillance. Hear directly from Snowden about his beliefs on what the tech community can and must do to secure the private data of the billions of people who rely on the tools and services that we build."

This session will be moderated by Ben Wizner, who is director of the ACLU's Speech, Privacy & Technology Project and Edward Snowden’s legal advisor. Audience members will have the opportunity to ask questions.

However, if you cannot be at SXSW Interactive on Monday, March 10 at 11:00 am CST, then you can watch a free livestream of the session courtesy of The Texas Tribune.

If you had the opportunity, what would ask Snowden?

I would ask Snowden for his thoughts on his obfuscating, neighbor invading, missile test lunching host, Vladimir Putin. But, maybe, I would not be allowed to ask that.

SXSW Interactive

Hillary on Putin, Ukraine

"In a speech at a health care forum in Florida last week as the [Ukraine] conflict was unfolding, Clinton said she was still talking to some of her former governmental colleagues and predicted Putin would “look seriously” at consolidating his country’s position in eastern Ukraine.

Putin “sits as the absolute authority now in Russia and it is quite reminiscent of the kind of authority exercised in the past by Russian leaders, by the czars and their successor Communist leaders,” she said, according to CNN. She added that it was imperative for the U.S. to back a “unified Ukraine.”

On Monday night, the pro-Clinton group Correct the Record, which hadn’t weighed in on the Ukraine issue before, came to her defense."

“Secretary Clinton worked to successfully secure Russia’s cooperation toward anti-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan, and worked with Russia to secure critical, crippling sanctions against Iran. Not to mention, Secretary Clinton oversaw passage and enactment of the New START Treaty reducing nuclear weapons and making us all safer. This is another case of selective memory lapses by Republican opportunists,” communications director Adrienne Elrod said in a statement, after the group posted tweets to that effect."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

If Hillary were to be inaugurated into the presidency in January 2017, Putin would be president of Russia until May 2018, and possibly six more years after that if he chose to run again and won. Wouldn't that be cute?

"Crimea dispatch: 'There will be no war. We're not going to point our weapons'"

"Colonel Sergey Starozhenko walked out of the gates of the 36th border guards brigade base in Perevalnoye on Sunday afternoon, and trudged down a grassy slope toward a line of 20 huge green Volga trucks."

Backed by a mobile radio truck with a towering antennae, half a dozen armoured jeeps, a field ambulance and a handful of UAZik's – the Russian answer to the snatch range rover – this line of trucks was the command post of the Russian invasion force that has held his base under siege since morning.

But the Colonel was calm, despite the standoff.

"There will be no war," he said, after climbing back up the hill from a meeting with his counterpart.

"After negotiations with the Russian Federation, we have agreed not to point our weapons at one another, and that they will not enter the base."

Meanwhile, president Obama wants everybody to know he is on his phone... minus his pen.

"Kiev on Edge After Russia OKs Putin's Military Intervention Plan"

"Kiev was on edge Saturday after Russian parliament’s upper house unanimously approved President Vladimir Putin’s request for a military intervention in Ukraine, according to a Kremlin statement."

The approval came within two hours of Putin appealing to parliament, saying the move is needed to protect ethnic Russians and the personnel of a Russian military base in Ukraine's strategic region of Crimea, a peninsula the size of Massachusetts where three out of four people speak Russian.

However, the vote does not specify that Russian troops are authorized to enter Crimea; instead, it states Russia's military force can enter "Ukraine," giving themselves a legal cloak to target more than Crimea.

NBC

CNN: "Sarah Palin may be having a bragging rights moment"

"In 2008, when she was the GOP vice presidential nominee, Palin questioned in a speech whether then-Sen. Barack Obama would have the foreign policy credentials to handle a scenario in which Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine."

After the Russian army invaded the nation of Georgia, Senator Obama's reaction was one of indecision and moral equivalence – the kind of response that would only encourage Russia's Putin to invade Ukraine next," she said in Reno, Nevada on October 21, 2008.

The former Alaska governor was happy to highlight her prediction on Friday and scold those who criticized her 2008 comments.

"Yes, I could see this one from Alaska," she said on Facebook. That remark was a reference to a 2008 interview in which Palin argued that Alaska's proximity to Russia helped boost her foreign policy experience.

Left leaning publication The Wire is having to grudgingly acknowledge that Sarah Palin was right.

So some of these things did happen! Administration officials sat down with Iran and worked out a temporary agreement to curb the refinement of uranium. The United States violated Pakistan's sovereign territory without its knowledge — to kill Osama bin Laden. And he is drawing down troops in Iraq. Whether or not you think that all of these things resulted in "crises," in Palin's evocative terminology, is up to you.

But it doesn't really seem like she deserves credit for the Ukraine thing. For one thing, calling what's happening at the moment an "invasion" is overly strong...

Overly strong? Palin's predictions, coming to be as a result of the election of Obama, have come to pass, just as she had predicted them. Watch the video after clicking Read More below.

Meanwhile, former Defense secretary Gates, "dismantles Joe Biden’s elder statesman status*", declaring in his recent memoir that Biden had been “wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”

CNN, The Wire, Politico *6th paragraph

We've arrested the wrong Bieber

Obama Talked out of Threat of Force

"Obama’s playing checkers. Putin’s playing Phizbin."

President Obama will not insist on a United Nations resolution threatening the use of force against Syria if Damascus does not turn over its stockpile of chemical weapons, according to reports.

The White House telegraphed the president’s strategy Friday amid ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Russia over a proposal to disarm Syria strongman Bashar Assad’s chemical arsenal to avert a threatened American military strike.

According to the reports from the Associated Press and New York Times, Obama is not ruling out a military strike. The president though believes that any resolution including such language would be vetoed by Russia on the Security Council. The president will reserve the right to strike Assad without UN support if Syria fails to follow through and hand over its chemical weapons.

Administration officials would not directly confirm the reports to the Washington Examiner.

Instapundit , Washington Examiner

"Putin: Rhymes With Rasputin"

Flashback on the world stage to the moment when Vladimir Putin first appeared to us and William Safire memorably quipped: "Putin: Rhymes with Rasputin."

Put your way back machine on to 2000 and reread Safire's NYT article; it's well worth it -- from a time when I still read that paper religiously. I picked out a few excerpts:

Acting President Putin (pronounced POO-teen, rhymes with Ras-POO-teen) rocketed to popularity on Russian jubilation about the massacre of dark-skinned Chechens who dare to demand independence. He needed a snap election before the blood lust cooled and Russian body bags began returning home.

Was Safire pro-Chechen or just sympathetic? The question is clouded by the Brothers Tsarnaev who were Chechens; remember what they did here: atrocities to bring attention to…? Well, not exactly to bring attention to al-Qaeda...but what then?

It is the Chechens who seek to liberate themselves from Russian rule. The Russian militarists are the ones raining bombs and shells on people who want the same independence as Georgians and Ukrainians. For Clinton to characterize the rape of Grozny as ''liberation'' is an abomination.

Al-Qaeda first appeared on our radar in Afghanistan. But they did fight the Russians (Soviets) before us. It's all so confusing. And Bill Clinton, siding with Putin's take on Chechnya? What will Hillary say and do?

Their task, after last week's coup de main, is to present Putin (means ''born on the road'') to the electorate as a man on horseback out to crush the terrorists trying to tear Mother Russia asunder. 

I would have never guessed that. Safire was very good at etymology; I didn't know he covered Russian etymology too.

Putin is in a race with disillusionment -- that moment when Russians realize that the Chechens won't be beaten without heavy losses, that the flight of capital will continue under Chubais-Berezovsky, and that military spending robs Russia of its ability to compete.

Can I recast that?:

Obama is in a race with disillusionment -- that moment when Americans realize that al-Qaeda won't be beaten without heavy losses, that the flight of capital will continue under Cloward-Piven, and that military spending robs America of its ability to compete.

It's a mixed-up, muddled-up, shook-up world.

Realpolitik

SecState Kerry is in Geneva today to discuss the Russian suggestion that Syria voluntarily give up her stores of poison gas, rather than be plied with incendiary devices by the US. Assad asserts that his compliance is because of Russia, and not US threats:

"Syria is placing its chemical weapons under international control because of Russia. The U.S. threats did not influence the decision," Interfax quoted him as telling Russia's state-run Rossiya-24 television channel. 

A version of the Russian plan that leaked to the newspaper Kommersant described four stages:Syria would join the world body that enforces a chemical weapons ban, declare production and storage sites, invite inspectors, and then decide with the inspectors how and by whom stockpiles would be destroyed.

Reuters