The Diplomat: "Interpreting Putin's Decision"

"So why has Putin risked Russia’s economic welfare and political space to swallow Crimea, push Ukraine out, and alienate the entire Western world? Is Putin “in another world” as German Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed he is? In my opinion, there are at least two considerations behind Putin’s decision."

The first is the realist, geo-political consideration. In Putin’s world, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Russia has lost nearly one fourth of its geography, one half of its population, and more than half of its GDP. Among the “lost” territories are those that are strategically important or militarily advanced, such as Ukraine and the Baltic states. With the eastward expansion of NATO, and the integration of former Soviet satellite states and republics in Eastern Europe and the Baltics into Europe, the traditional buffer zone between Russia and the West is increasingly squeezed and Russia’s space for strategic maneuvering becomes smaller with each year... (read more)

The second consideration is more psychological in nature. Following the end of Cold War, embracing the West was the first priority of Russian foreign policy. But to Moscow’s dismay, it found that the West still harbored strong reservations and considerable distrust. Years spent courting and wooing provided little of what Russia craved most: equal membership in the West and economic prosperity. Though Russia became part of the exclusive G8, it never enjoyed the full status and say of the other seven members, always remaining an “other.” Economically, the shock remedy proposed by the West and faithfully implemented by Boris Yeltsin didn’t bring the expected economic benefit. Instead, it took Russia’s economy into freefall, leaving the average Russian worse off than before.

It was Putin who saved Russia from its miserable condition. He readjusted both Russia’s domestic and foreign policies, and distanced the country from the West, instead seeking opportunities to resurrect past Soviet glories. As the Russian economy improved, the West found that its time was passing. The 2008 economic crisis hit the U.S. and Europe hard and they found themselves more reliant on the emerging powers, Russia included. It is Britain, France, and even Germany who are now busy appealing to Russian oil bacons to buy more and invest more. The balance of power between Russia and the West has shifted... (read more)

Russians, and especially Putin learned a hard lesson from the post-Cold War romance with the West: For all the talk of democracy and freedom, the fact remains that the strong dictate to the weak.

With Europe rotten and United States weakened, a resurgent and confident Russia will definitely not let a geo-strategically important former Soviet republic fall entirely into the West’s camp. By annexing Crimea, Putin not only secured Russia’s naval base and its strategic gateway to the Black Sea, he also sent a powerful message to Ukraine and the West: Ignore Russia’s legitimate strategic concerns at your own peril.

The Diplomat via ZeroHedge

Kerry: "There Will Be a Very Serious Series of Steps on Monday.”

Secretary of State John F. Kerry is in the final stage of training for the Hustle Up The Hancock April 13 in Chicago.  Mondays are especially heavy training days in his routine.  He's serious about this.

Oh.  Wait.  I need to read the complete article.  Here it is.

Well, this makes more sense.  He's not running stairs; he's talking about what will happen if Russia grabs up Ukraine because of a phony referendum to be held in Crimea this Sunday.  Crimeans will vote whether they want to (a) become part of beloved mother Russia, or (b) be invaded, crushed and destroyed before becoming part of beloved mother Russia.

The U.S. and Europe on Monday would then unite to impose sanctions on Russia, Kerry told a Senate Appropriations subcommittee Thursday during a hearing on the State Department's budget.

Kerry responded carefully, saying “we have contingencies – we are talking through various options that may or may not be available.”

“Our hope is not to create hysteria or excessive concern about that at this point in time,” he said. “Our hope is to avoid that, but there's no telling that we can.”

If I was Vladimir Putin, I'd be quaking in my сапоги.  Kerry has contingencies, and also various options that may or may not be available.

U.S. authorities are closely monitoring the number of Russian troops in Crimea, as well as their movements, he said, noting that Moscow is allowed to have a total of 25,000 troops in Crimea.

Allowed by whom?  By the US?  Seriously?  And what will the US do if Putin deploys, say, 30,000 troops to Crimea?  Demonstrate the same courage and leadership as the Obama administration regarding the "red line" and the civil war in Syria, probably.

Vladimir Putin understands that "there will be a very serious series of steps on Monday" is as much a threat  to him as this

Good luck, Crimeans.