Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Razib Khan predicts Trump will win Utah and the general election

Poll: Utah would vote for a Democrat for president over Trump. I don’t accept this poll. I think Trump will get nominated, and he will win Utah. But, this poll, and results from Idaho, suggest that Mormons have a particular antipathy toward Donald Trump. Reiterates that though Southern Evangelicals and Mormons are allies in the political realm, there are deep cultural differences between the two groups.

http://www.unz.com/gnxp/open-thread-3202016/

27 comments:

edutcher said...

The Deseret News is the paper of record in UT, but that poll is off the wall.

As I wrote yesterday

If you're a Mormon in UT, there's no such thing as out of work because of something called Deseret Industries, a cross between the Salvation Army and Goodwill. You need something to do, the LDSers get you a place there, so Bernie would have very little attraction in UT.

Bernie would have little attraction there.

"Reiterates that though Southern Evangelicals and Mormons are allies in the political realm, there are deep cultural differences between the two groups."

If you've ever been to UT, you know the Mormons wallow in their history of being persecuted at the hands of Southern fundamentalists, so all of this strikes me as odd, to say the least.

Of course, if you could trade UT in the Electoral College (6 votes) for MI (17) or NY (31), wouldn't you?

PS Question: According to AP, the delegate count is

Trump 680
Cruz 423
Kasich 143

According to the RNC it's

TRUMP 690
CRUZ 414
KASICH 144

I thought the RNC hated Trump.

chickelit said...

The repulsion for serial polygamy vs. parallel polygamy could be the deciding factor.

deborah said...

I just thought it was interesting that Razib was predicting a UT win for Trump, so I threw it up there. I was thinking the same thing last week.

edutcher said...

chickelit said...

The repulsion for serial polygamy vs. parallel polygamy could be the deciding factor.

Believe it or don't, there's a lot of that going on in the southern part of the state; call it Mormon fundamentalism.

BTW polls in UT don't close until (are you ready?) 1 AM EST, so they've had a long day to chew on today's news.

chickelit said...

CNN was just showing long, long lines live, mostly young people (probably people who actually work during the day).

I think Sanders will prevail over Mrs. Clinton.

chickelit said...

Ted really did some low-blow negative campaining, showing the photo of Melania. JMHO

chickelit said...

Believe it or don't, there's a lot of that going on in the southern part of the state; call it Mormon fundamentalism.

I think that too, edutcher. But the Cruz campaign apparently thinks otherwise.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

I just read a list of celebrity musicians and the politicians they endorse.

Hillary Clinton endorsers:
Sting (my opinion of him just went down the toilet)
Katy Perry (cotton candy wealth pop - I'll pass)
Bon Jovi - I hate the band, I detest the members, I cannot stand their music. Pure over-rated crap.
Mariah Carry (She spends all her time shopping, and stuffing her closets, so this makes sense)

lots of others... All ultra rich celebrity musicians. hmmmm.

Grittier musicians support Bernie: Flea, Neil Young, Lucinda Williams, Bonnie Raitt
(sp/etc...)

only 2 admit they support Trump - Kid Rock and Ted Nugent

edutcher said...

April, who cares?

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

It's a culture wars thing. All the popular kids like Hillary. All the wealthy popular kids are cool with her corruption.

deborah said...

1AM Eastern!? Don't know if I'll make it.

deborah said...

Scott Baio endorsed Trump...said his dad raised them to be republicans.

edutcher said...

deborah said...

1AM Eastern!? Don't know if I'll make it.

As it's a caucus, you might as well see how it turns out in the morning.

The big issue will be, if terror attacks work to Trump's advantage (YMMV), will this rob Cruz of his 50+% in UT and make it proportional?

FWIW, CNN and Fox have called AZ for Trump.

chickelit said...

April wrote Grittier musicians support Bernie: Flea, Neil Young, Lucinda Williams, Bonnie Raitt (sp/etc...)

I like the term "gritty." Oceanside is gritty in view of the tonier coastal cites to the south in San Diego County. We have the best beaches, a pier, and a harbor here, yet the tourists never come. It's too "gritty." Lots of Trumpfolk here though.

deborah said...

Your description only makes me want to return more. I prefer basic.

deborah said...

You're right, Ed, good observation. At the time they called AZ for Trump, Cruz and Kasich combined didn't come up to his total...like still 30-40K apart lol.

chickelit said...

deborah said...Your description only makes me want to return more. I prefer basic.

I mean gritty in the sense of "not refined" or "less refined." People still fly American flags here. Proudly.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

So gritty is good. I think so.

deborah said...

OIC. It's strange it's not more popular, it's such a pretty little town. I imagine Pendleton isn't a draw for the tony set, either. I prefer less crowded, even slightly run down seaside venues.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Utah is a caucus state. Interesting how Cruz seems to take the caucus states compared to those where the people actually vote.

In a caucus you have no privacy of your vote and are actively met by others who want to persuade you to vote or not vote. It is the most patently UNdemocratic system ever invented. I might have been workable in the 1880's but today, it is ridiculous.

If the Church Elders want you to vote for Cruz...you WILL vote for Cruz in the caucus whether you want to our not because otherwise you will be subject to being shunned. I have friends who are Mormon and they are mostly nice, even if sort of weird, people. But. It is a cult.

In addition it is subject to being manipulated and full of fraud.

Take a look at this guy's post and the other responses to it about the fraud in Utah.

deborah said...

RAZIB, WTF?! That's alright, you're still one of my favorite geeks :)

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Remember when it was decided that Heidi Cruz's mental health was not fair game?

Well....after seeing how the Cruz campaign is going after the wife of Trump, who has zero political connections of any kind. What do you think now?

What is fair game? I don't know anymore.

deborah said...

DBQ, remember Hillaryites being really pissed in 2008, claiming the Iowa(?) caucus was man-handled by aggressive pro-Obama caucus goers.

Thanks for the link. An especial sham in a cult-run state.

deborah said...

It could backfire. Her cause could become depression. Ted could be all, this is what the current state of American politics has done to my dear, God-fearing wife.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

It could backfire. Her cause could become depression.

So...you don't think that Trump's wife might be depressed by being slut shamed for what was honest modeling work in her previous life? It isn't like she was a porn star or anything. She was a top model and using your body to advertise clothing or other products is part of the job.

If Heidi Cruz is that fragile and unstable, how the heck is she going to handle being first lady and the target of all sorts of bad publicity and journalism. Boo hoo. Just look at the vitriol that Michelle Obama has had hurled at her. She probably isn't depressed about it though. More like angry, like a provoked water buffalo see..what I did there :-)

If Cruz doesn't want to have his wife or family attacked, I would suggest that he not do the same to others. What goes around comes around.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

If Cruz wants to get past this.....he needs to come out loudly and strongly against ads that target candidates wives and children. So far, he hasn't done this. Ted Cruz is a horrible person based on what he has done to his own wife, forcing her out of her chosen career to be a prop for his own ambitions. The more I hear from him, see his prissy mouth and old granny looking nose and his creepy smile with those itty bitty weird teeth, the more creeped out I am by him.

Plus his misrepresenting attacks on his opponents. Basically telling lies. For example: Trump did NOT say get out of NATO. He said, that our NATO partners in Europe need to take up more of the burden. Yet. Cruz goes out to try to blame Trump for the Brussels attacks. It seems to me that Cruz is a man who will not let anything or anyone or any principle stand in the way of his overweening ambitions.

He'd BETTER get a handle on this.

If not... what goes around comes around

deborah said...

DBQ, I said the other day that I thought Heidi's depression was fair game. Just now I said it could backfire. Make her an object of pity. Maybe that's the plan now, give people a reason to vote against Trump on the second ballot, if there is one.

As far as NATO, Cruz will say anything and bank on the confusion of the election season to see what sticks.

As far as Heidi being 'forced' to give up her career, or whatever, I didn't read the article, something tells me she's not averse to becoming First Lady.