Thursday, March 24, 2016

Nate Silver Electoral Map as of today

Meanwhile...
Republicans have cast 19.8 million votes at primary and caucus elections this year, and Democrats have cast 14.8 million. But there’s a third force that has once again dwarfed both of these numbers: the great American tradition of disinterest and apathy.
In the states that have held elections so far, about 106 million eligible voters have opted out of the whole thing. Only about a quarter of the voting-age population, or 40% of registered voters, have turned up to the polls. This is true even though Republicans have turned out in record numbers this year.

47 comments:

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

CO will not push Clinton over the edge here. Trump may not be popular, but Hillary is hated here, by anyone with a weft of moral thread.

AllenS said...

Here's what the map might look like...

So, it might not.

bagoh20 said...

And I'm the one being accused swimming in the Nile.

Jim in St Louis said...

“about 106 million eligible voters have opted out of the whole thing”

Wiki (yes I know) has an interesting article on voting for no one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/None_of_the_above

I have sat out elections (rarely), or thrown my vote away on a third party (usually), but if there was a none of the above option I wonder what the results would be? I also think that it is stupid to have elections on a freaking work-week Tuesday. Polls are open 6 to 6 and I am at my desk working by 6am, and often do not get home in time to vote. Absentee is a hassle and in St Louis is mostly a scam anyway.

I'm Full of Soup said...

I like Jim Webb as a VP for Trump. He could help win VA, PA, GA and FL, AZ and some other states.

Methadras said...

This tweet is designed to do one thing, dishearten the republican electorate. It's a propaganda piece.

deborah said...

Two opinionated white guys with racial baggage, not good.

Nate is scary. He was right on last time.

deborah said...

No, bags, you're the one in the Cleopatra barge sipping a mimosa...Just kidding :)

Lem said...

With that kind of enthusiasm gap i dont see how the democrats... change that, how Hillary can pull it off.

No way hose.

deborah said...

How about Hose B?

Dems will turn out in hordes in the general.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

I think it's off, but the reality that Hillary can beat Trump remains. Hillary has free super PACS in hollywood and free positive spin press on major network news.
+We are a nation that no longer cares about the law.

Calypso Facto said...

Check out this primary map from April of 2008 showing Clinton walloping the unknown Barak Obama and remember how much things can change in 7 months ....

http://jutiagroup.com/20080423-democratic-primary-election-map-clintons-pennsylvania-win-keeps-her-alive/

Meade said...

Trump should have run as a Democrat.

deborah said...

Nice find, CF.

Meade said...

If he had run as a Democrat, Hillary would already be out and he would have a real chance at winning in November. But with the Republican stink on him he won't get above 47% in the general.

AllenS said...

Thanks, Calypso Facto.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Americans need to rise up and beat the corrupt democrat media industrial complex.

bagoh20 said...

It is true that running as a Democrat magically makes almost anything acceptable to Dem voters. Just like being named Trump does for Trumpers. So a Trump running Democrat would probably get 80% of the vote with all the Dem voters plus all the current Trumpers, who I assume would still vote for him - same policies, same history. Just keep playing that douche bag card, and Dems would swallow it while Trumpers swoon.

bagoh20 said...

"Check out this primary map from April of 2008 showing Clinton walloping the unknown Barak Obama..."

True that, but the important word is "unknown". Everyone knows both these candidates all too well. I don't expect much movement when we learn more. The most unknown stuff is dirt on Trump, and the Dems have it locked and loaded.

AllenS said...

Well, take your best shot, antis'.

Calypso Facto said...

Trump is a natural, big-government Democrat, but the Clintons would never have pushed him to run as a Democrat whereas they outright encouraged their friend Trump to jump in and disrupt the Republicans. The only question now is will the Frankenstein monster of the Clintons turn on its creator too?

ricpic said...

Article admits turnout has been 50% higher in Republican primaries but, you know, Cankles is inevitable.

AllenS said...

If Trump had run as a Democrat, he'd have zero super delegates.

Methadras said...

Remember, the DNC nominee will have a started electorate count of 240 to begin with. That's just the way it is. If Hillary wins, the nation is fucked.

AllenS said...

A video shows Chelsea Clinton blasting the "crushing costs" of President Barack Obama's signature legislation. In the video, Chelsea Clinton tells a crowd that her mother, Hillary Clinton, is open to using executive action to reduce "crushing costs" of Obamacare.

Those Clinton's sure get brave at bashing Obama when he's out of town. If I was Obama I'd have her arrested when I got back in town.

edutcher said...

Hmmm, Looks like the One True Ted is making Kasich an offer he can't refuse.

Even though it probably does him no good.

Also like to hear from DBQ about this one. She thought Cruz would take CA, but PPP shows Trump 10 up. It is PPP, of course and it's 2-1/2 months to the primary

deborah said...

Two opinionated white guys with racial baggage, not good.

Nate is scary. He was right on last time.


no, he was shilling for the Gray Lady and they already knew the vote fraud machine was up and running and how many flipped votes and dead people there would be.

Methadras said...

Remember, the DNC nominee will have a started electorate count of 240 to begin with. That's just the way it is. If Hillary wins, the nation is fucked.

Not necessarily.

Cruzzers and Libertarians notwithstanding, but I think Trump puts a lot more places in play.

Meade said...

"If Trump had run as a Democrat, he'd have zero super delegates."

Actually, he'd have quite a few. Super delegates are nothing more than party establishment delegates — the Chuck Schumers, Harry Reids, Charles Rangel type party insiders. In other words, establishment Democrats who Trump is friends with and has given millions and millions of dollars to.

If Trump had run as a Democrat, by this point, low energy Hillary would be home being a grandma, Bernie's wife would have the beans spilled on her, and, with the Repub nomination sewn up, Jeb would be staring and blinking at the the electoral college map wondering how in the world he can avoid the inevitable Trump landslide coming in November.

As it is, Trump will be serving in the next Clinton administration — probably designing tariffs, immigration amnesty, or single-payer health care.

cliff claven said...

Who is a bigger pompous asshole, Silver or this Meade pussy whipped cunt?

Calypso Facto said...

Gary Johnson now polling in the double digits (Monmouth Poll), taking more votes from Hillary than the Donald in a 3-way. His third party interest/popularity is building just as overexposure and fatigue sets in with the others.

Meade said...

Cool, Facto! I could get behind Gary Johnson. I'm so sick of Hillary and Trump I could puke.

edutcher said...

Looks we have 2 Ritmos.

Trooper York said...

Gary Johnson is a great alternative for the low information moron voter who wants to virtue signal and run from all of these horrible microaggressions that you get when you chalk Trumps name on a sidewalk. Or when you throw an "All in for Hillary" sanitary napkin on the walk. Bernie fans can line up and not vote for a capitalist raider like Trump or a Wall Street Whore like Hillary.

All the cool kids will love Gary!

Methadras said...

Meade said...

Cool, Facto! I could get behind Gary Johnson


Of course you'd get behind him. Maybe if he found out, he'd let you become an insider too.

Meade said...

Oh. Okay, I'll vote for Trump then. Because Trooper York's vagina needs douching.

ricpic said...

Meth said....

"Remember, the DNC nominee will have a started electorate count of 240 to begin with."

Not if Trump takes New York. Forget the false bravado of Democrats and their lackey MSM. Trump petrifies them and a large part of it is his excellent chance to take New York. Not to mention other big count northeast states like New Jersey and Pennsy.

edutcher said...

Um, does anybody know anything about thIs?

If he wasn't here writing about Maureen O'Hara and Geraldine Page, I'd swear it was Troop's work.

Trooper York said...

The National Enqurier is one of the few honest papers left.

They were on the money with John Edwards.

Everybody knows Trump was a dog. Now Teds beans are getting spilled.

Trooper York said...

Ed please pass the popcorn.

edutcher said...

Listen, I'm agnostic on this one - innocent until proven guilty and all.

What's going to look bad is Dad's history.

Methadras said...

ricpic said...

Meth said....

"Remember, the DNC nominee will have a started electorate count of 240 to begin with."

Not if Trump takes New York. Forget the false bravado of Democrats and their lackey MSM. Trump petrifies them and a large part of it is his excellent chance to take New York. Not to mention other big count northeast states like New Jersey and Pennsy.


If he takes New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Florida, then he wins. He needs at least 2 to 3 out of those 4. I think.

chickelit said...

I think Trump has to take New York in the primary and the general. Otherwise, he's a pussy.

edutcher said...

The black vote isn't enthusiastic about Hillary, nor is the Hispanic, men's, or even women's votes.

10% of the black vote going R or staying home is a disaster for the Demos and it seems a lot of black people do like The Donald.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Hillary leads Trump in NY by 17.

Meade said...

"Hillary leads Trump in NY by 17"

No importa. 1. Hillary will be in jail any day now, 2. another terrorist attack at just the right time in just the right place... presto — President Trump!

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Hillary gets to give herself permission to skirt the law. She won't ever land in jail.

Hillary doesn't need to ask permission. She is above the law.

Calypso Facto said...

Trumper York spouts nonsense (again) about the macro- and micro-aggressions both Hillary and Emperor Donald would love to selectively protect us from through the benevolence of more intrusive gov't. Tellingly, Johnson is the only candidate who doesn't give a damn what you write on the sidewalk.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Heidi Cruz Is More Qualified to Be President Than Donald Trump

I like "The Frequently bankrupt Vulgarian." heh.

Trump is an established misogynist. In his world, a woman’s physical attractiveness—measured by his own subjective standards—is the most important thing about her, and unless that attractiveness is off his personal charts, her value is zero.

that's sure to get the fem vote and the youth vote. go Trump!