Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Choking The Chicken

Should Trump win big later on today, the reaction to watch is not the media's meltdown -- it will be China's reaction. They are watching very closely.
I wish I knew more about economics in order to predict the fallout of a Trump Presidency.

14 comments:

chickelit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rcommal said...

I am listening to the Frank Sinatra/Count Basie version of "Fly Me to the Moon" and contemplating the notion of the NYCMETROLI election: HRC v. DJT.

Oh, well, what the hell. Why not, after all?

Is that what I'm supposed to think? I guess it is what I'm supposed to think.

chickelit said...

Is that what I'm supposed to think? I guess it is what I'm supposed to think.

Only if you're referring to what you read here at Lem's and if you connect a lot of unconnectable dots.

Otherwise, I'm clueless.

chickelit said...

It's so easy to imagine any number of nightmare scare scenarios--ones which the Dems will surely play up--that's why it's perhaps worth getting them out on the table.

rcommal said...

chickelit:

This is what I wrote:

I am listening to the Frank Sinatra/Count Basie version of "Fly Me to the Moon" and contemplating the notion of the NYCMETROLI election: HRC v. DJT.

Oh, well, what the hell. Why not, after all?

Is that what I'm supposed to think? I guess it is what I'm supposed to think.


To which you said:

Only if you're referring to what you read here at Lem's and if you connect a lot of unconnectable dots. ...

Nonsense: You know that's not how it is.

... and Otherwise, I'm clueless.

Bullshit: You are far from clueless.

rcommal said...

I am not responsible for the rise of Hillary R. Clinton and I am not responsible for the rise of Donald J. Trump. I am not responsible for the likely outcome I stated up-thread.

Which outcome, just to remind everyone, is this: the NYCMETROLI election (in which, again as a reminder, is HRC and DJT pitted against each other).

bagoh20 said...

I believe it's "chocking" the Chicken now.

Dad Bones said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
edutcher said...

The Donald's dislike of Red China is well-documented and his Administration would do them no favors.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

China has been manipulating its currency to our detriment and to play the numbers to their benefit for decades. It has become especially egregious in the last 15 years. It boost their own economic growth and causes ours, especially in manufacturing of small goods, to crash.

Here is a link to an economic site that sort of explains it. It is quite complex. http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2388/economics/chinese-currency-manipulation/
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Mexico is playing this game as well. Manipulating its currency and exports while offloading many of its own undesirable citizens and allowing the rest of Central America to flood through the country into the US.

Trump is correct in that we are losing against not only China and Mexico but the rest of the world as well in exports, currency and foreign policy.

How to change it and regain the balance or upperhand that will increase our own economic health, expand jobs, manufacturing and get a better trade balance is EXTREMELY tricky. How to do it without creating a rubberband effect, crashing our economy worse, starting trade wars if not actual wars. Verrrrry difficult.

It isn't as simple as the stump speeches make it sound. Win again. Build the wall and make Mexico pay for it. It can be done and it takes time,negotiation and international economic gyrations. Those stump speeches are emotional sound bites to get people to think about the macro aspects of the problem. The micro aspects would make your eyes roll back in your head and make most of the voters comatose. This is why those things are not able to be articulated or distilled into a 15 second sound bite.

When it comes to the nuts and bolts of the process, the negotiations, the deals....it will be a team of experts and be handled very delicately and yet firmly. It is damned difficult to out negotiate the Chinese, they've been at it for thousands of years and are the best. The issue is that the tactics we, Westerners, have been using do not work and they are playing us for fools. It can change. We have to change.

Lem the artificially intelligent said...

Trump is a lot of talk and no there there.

ricpic said...

"Trump is a lot of talk and no there there."

You'll find out. First six months in office the Chinese, who probably agree with that assessment will test Trump. They'll probably try something cute in the South China Sea. Trump will do a Reagan on their ass. After that they'll be much more, uh...malleable in many areas, not least trade. Same for the lovely Iranians, Mexicans, North Koreans, etc., etc.

rcommal said...

edutcher & dbq:

Thanks for your last-minute, so-called insights.

Too late.

rcommal said...

DBQ:

Also, just for the record, I spent time in the mid-80s working for a guy who earned every certification to which you have referred, DBQ, and probably one more. I am pretty certain that he earned all of that before you earned whatever it is that you think entitles you to crap all over financial skepticism.