Friday, October 21, 2016

Der Trick Ist Verloren

Overheard at Althouse and updated for urgency:
Hillary's only trick is to appear inevitable. That doesn't draw voters to the polls, but it attracts donors and discourages the other guy's donors. Her message during the primaries was not a counter to Sanders message, it was "I have already won." Breaking that idea is how Obama won against her in 2008. The only way Trump can win is to break the idea that Hillary is inevitable. He has fourteen three weeks. link
Can someone please explain how Electoral College voters are polled?

I'm not referring to civics lessons but rather, to how polls of EC members are cited in the press.

18 comments:

chickelit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
chickelit said...

I like Terry's quote. That's why I bookmarked it.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Ivanka Trump called me and asked me to go vote.

So how's them apples?

I will do so!

edutcher said...

You really don't vote for a President, you vote for an elector who, you hope*, will vote for the guy he says he supports. Electors go to DC sometime in January and cast their votes. The votes are then counted and only then is the election truly finished.

* There is no legal requirement that an elector vote for the person (s)he represented. In 1820, James Monroe won every state, but one elector refused to cast his vote for him on the grounds no election should be unanimous.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Make Electors Great Again

chickelit said...

Thanks, edutcher -- I did know that much -- but how in theory could there be a very lopsided popular vote vs. EC vote? Suppose the EC voters feel threatened by Trump's outsider status and vote for their own interest?

chickelit said...

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...
Ivanka Trump called me and asked me to go vote.

I will do so!


You were mooved!

AprilApple said...

It's not her only trick. Her other trick is to seem better, in comparison, to her opponent. This is easy when the opponent is Trump. What luck.

edutcher said...

chickelit said...

Thanks, edutcher -- I did know that much -- but how in theory could there be a very lopsided popular vote vs. EC vote? Suppose the EC voters feel threatened by Trump's outsider status and vote for their own interest?

Technically within the rules, but everybody would scream.

Anything like that would cause a real uproar in this country. Did the Demos rig it? Did the Whigs?

The media loves to hype things with the phrase "Constitutional crisis". That would be one for real.

If you think about it, we often have close popular votes, but wide electoral margins. This is the opposite.

People would demand some mechanism, probably an amendment, to ensure the elector had to vote for whomever he represented.

PS What would be interesting would be if all the states adopted what ME and NE do. An electoral vote goes to the winner of each Congressional district and the winner of the state gets the 2 Senatorial votes.

In such a way, the Demos in PA might get the electoral votes from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but the rest of the electoral votes would go to the R. Talk about a way to break the Democrats.

edutcher said...

Trump has forced the Beast to actually run for office, rather than lay down.

The pollsters are having to go to incredible lengths to give the illusion she's ahead. When you have to spot somebody anywhere from 10 to 20 points just to keep them viable, not to mention weighting your surveys with groups that are supposed to be sympathetic to your guy, that is a tough opponent.

Of course, the pathological never see that.

AprilApple said...

"Since the White House agreed to pay Tehran $1.7 billion in cash earlier this year as part of a deal bound up in the release of American hostages, Iran has captured several more U.S. citizens."



That would make a good Trump ad. Don't git yer hopes up.

edutcher said...

You think so?

People want to know about their streets, their jobs, their kids' education, their health care.

Foreign policy only counts when it's a front burner, hot button issue.

She has the political savvy of a rock.

chickelit said...

AprilApple said...That would make a good Trump ad. Don't git yer hopes up.

I agree with ed on this. The fact you cite should sway people like Billy Kristol, NRO and other foreign policy wonks who can't seem to fathom that Hillary is BHO II.

chickelit said...

Maybe Billy Kristol likes wars in the Middle East. But I have to ask, does he have any skin (kids, elders) in the game?

AprilApple said...

That's where you are wrong. Our government is wasting OUR tax dollars on ransom payments to radical Islamists, without our permission or consent. Then lying about it.

**Instead of spending our money on our people.**

should make any American angry.

Another opportunity - gone.

I don't see Trump ads that point out Hillary's pay-to-play/ State Dept as cash register. Those would also be effective.

All makes sense when you're trying to throw an election.

AprilApple said...

ADs that discuss the latest revelations about how Hillary WANTS obamacare to unravel -and then she plans to blame the republicans.

*crickets*

and on and on. So many missed opportunities.

AprilApple said...

Watched a Trump ad last night on the TV.

Started out OK - but the end was 'The whole world is in chaos!'... Oh brother. *slaps forehead*

Methadras said...

Likely voters are what legit pollsters are looking for from an electoral point of view. How they weight each one is still a fucking mystery.