Friday, October 21, 2016

45% of the Republican Grass Roots have the election figured out ....and it just pisses off the establishment and their media lapdogs.

Poll: 45% of Republicans say they’re unlikely to, or definitely won’t, accept the election result if Trump loses


This is a problem for the GOP long-term and for Trump in the short-term.
Why is it a problem for Trump? Because there’s evidence that the more people are convinced that their political system is corrupt, the less likely they are to vote. Trump is out there every day telling his fans that the election is rigged, sometimes in terms of the media being in the tank for Hillary but in other cases in terms of actual cheating at the polls. I’d bet cash money that Kellyanne Conway has asked him privately to tone that down, not just because it’ll make it harder to put the party back together after the election but because she knows he’s inadvertently suppressing his own turnout. To have any chance at an upset, Trump needs working-class whites who typically don’t vote in elections — “undercover Trump voters” — to feel it’s worth their time to turn out next month. If instead they’re now convinced that the election’s rigged, guess what happens to turnout?

2012 study looked at this phenomenon:
Among Americans in the 2012 ANES survey who believe that votes are “very often” counted fairly, over three-quarters (77 percent) reported that they voted. By contrast, among those with strong doubts about this process, just two-thirds (64 percent) bothered to vote, generating a net 13-point gap.
When asked whether they thought that electoral officials were fair, similar patterns can be observed, where greater trust is significantly associated with higher voter turnout. None of the other claims about electoral malpractice was observed to have a similar effect on turnout, including problems of media bias, lack of genuine choice and campaign finance…
In September 2016, a Gallup poll found that only 6 in 10 Americans were very or fairly confident that their vote would be accurately cast and counted in the U.S. election, down from around three-quarters of all Americans a decade earlier. But among Republicans, the proportion who were confident dropped to around half, the lowest which the Gallup poll has ever recorded on this question when asked in a series of surveys. Other polls have found that Trump voters are especially likely to believe that voter fraud occurs often.
As noted, Republicans generally and Trump fans specifically are already inclined to believe that vote-rigging is going on, even before Trump started using his megaphone to hammer that point. Independents, who vote less regularly than strong partisans, are also unusually likely to see turnout drop if they’re convinced that the election isn’t fair, which is bad news for a candidate like Trump who’s targeting indies with his own independent, anti-establishment brand. Giving your target constituencies a good reason not to vote by crying “voter fraud” seems like a bad play for a guy who’s relying on enthusiasm from his base rather than traditional ground-game mechanisms to get people to the polls. And for the larger GOP, it’s a disaster in the making if perceptions that this election was stolen linger among the Republican base, as that might suppress turnout in 2018 and beyond. If “they” can steal the presidency from Trump, some will say, why bother participating in the system at all, even in a midterm cycle two years from now that looks primed for a Republican blowout? That’s a big reason why so many GOP apparatchiks, from establishmentarians like Reince Priebus and Paul Ryan to Trump recruits like Conway and Mike Pence, will be pushing back on the “rigged!” narrative next month. The party’s already alienated too many other voters to lose parts of its base as well to the suspicion that voting is meaningless.
Here’s Rush Limbaugh this afternoon wondering if there’ll be riots if Clinton gets 500 electoral votes. Or does he mean riots by the left if Trump gets 500 electoral votes? It’s hard to tell. Nothing to worry about either way, although I’m curious what he thinks will happen if Clinton gets 400. That’s highly unlikely too, but not quite completely off the board.

(Allahpundit is the name April writes under at Hot Air so she can spread the joy. It's transgressive or transsexual or something like that there. It is just the same old same old protection of the status quo.)


chickelit said...

I know with near certainty that my CA vote for Trump won't count (maybe won't even be counted). That's not going to stop me, though. The thought of being discouraged doesn't occur to me. Plus there are other issues on the ballot, right bags?

Trooper York said...

Same with me and every one of my family and friends in New York. We are going to vote for Trump no matter what.

There are a lot of people like us. I don't think that there are a lot of people as committed to Hillary.

This is just more propaganda by the Nevertrumpers.

We are cultists remember. We don't care what the media says.

edutcher said...

If HotAir put it out, I'd be skeptical of how valid it is, generally.

And, if the base thinks the Whigs go along with this rotten system because they're getting compensated, I'd say it would make them more eager to go for someone who fights back.

You can make a case that, in '12, the base, seeing Romney as an Establishment Republican, would be discouraged if they thought the Demos would pull every trick imaginable and Romney would say nothing.

PS Who can't make a post without mentioning (someone)?

chickelit said...

For me, voting is like standing for the anthem. I've only missed one election (1992) but I had the excuse of living overseas. Still, I've voted for some turkeys in my lifetime. Live and learn.

chickelit said...

PS Who can't make a post without mentioning (someone)?

Whom are you asking?

rcocean said...

"If HotAir put it out, I'd be skeptical of how valid it is, generally."

Right on. Boy, if this election has shown anything, its shown me who the cucks/false conservatives are.

Bill Kristol was on TV, almost crying over the thought of Hillary losing. National Review, Red state, Hot air, The Weekly, Glenn Beck, are all pulling or Hillary.

Et tu Brutus?

rcocean said...

I'm voting for Trump. Not only that, I'm willing to give money to anyone who runs against McConnell or Ryan if/when they run for re-election.

I'm cutting all the cucks out of my life. Cable TV - gone. National review - gone. RNC - gone.

The Republican establishment is writing its own death warrant by its behavior. But guess what? They don't care. The California Repubs in the 1990s didn't care either.

AprilApple said...

You can only trust pro-Trumpy.

edutcher said...

Sounds like somebody's gone All Hildabeast All the Time.

ricpic said...

God knows how many dead will vote or how many will be driven around from polling place to polling place to vote several times. That's especially true here in New York. Doesn't matter. I committed to vote for Trump, I'll vote for Trump and let the chips fall where they may. Yes, I know chips fall is a cliche but so what, I'm a cliche. I haven't voted for twenty years, maybe more. What was the point? Trump said "I will build a Wall." That was it. He had me. Has me now. Not that that's going to save the country. Only that Trump is not INDIFFERENT to my fate, the country's fate. And that's enough.

chickelit said...

ricpic wrote: Yes, I know chips fall is a cliche but so what, I'm a cliche.

You're a poet
though you don't often (lately)
show it

Chip Ahoy said...

the more people are convinced that their political system is corrupt, the less likely they are to vote.

Such nonsense. I cannot believe what I'm reading. Hasn't this man been paying attention? What has he gone non compos mentis, what is he no lo comprende psicología conservativo?

Let's get one thing straight. Trump supporters realized to overcome the built in corruption they MUST vote and vote with a vengeance. Vote NOW and vote often.

If anything, knowing of systemic corruption just might induce them to indulge in voter fraud themselves, knowing full well now what Democrats do, to compensate the abuse they receive. They're quite worked up, you know.

Sometimes I wonder if those writer over there understand Trump supporter's psychology at all. So far they are wrong about everything!

Jesus Christ, what a stupid conclusion.