Betting on election outcomes

Recently I caught a tech program hosted by John Stossel that talked about betting on predictions, which he claimed yielded the wisdom of the crowd in predicting winners. At one time the government looked into crowd-prediction betting to help foresee events of war, terrorism, etc., but the kibosh was put on it by outraged senators.

While looking for Stossel's tech program, I came across the predictions he touted the afternoon of the Iowa Caucuses. He jauntily said how well prediction markets do, pooh-poohed polling that was saying Hillary and Bernie were neck-in-neck, and said the prediction markets were breaking 70-30 for Hillary.

Betting markets are illegal in the US, so Stossel has created his own site, based on British crowd-prediction odds: ElectionBettingOdds.com .

Ya wanna bet?

Breibart News November 11, 2015 by Daniel J Flynn

The office of New York’s attorney general fired off cease-and-desist letters to FanDuel and DraftKings fantasy sports websites.

Tuesday’s letters conclude that FanDuel and DraftKings’ “operations constitute illegal gambling under New York law.” The nearly identical missives order the sites to cease accepting money from residents of the Empire State.

“FanDuel’s customers are clearly placing bets on events outside of their control or influence, specifically on the real-game performance of professional athletes,” the attorney general’s office holds. “Further, each FanDuel wager represents a wager on a ‘contest of chance’ where winning or losing depends on numerous elements of chance to a ‘material degree.'”

ESPN: "Where is the ethical line between advantage play and cheating?"

"[N]o one should feel extreme sympathy for losing gamblers. In all cases, they have no one to blame but themselves, as they could have walked away at any time. They are complicit in this transaction."

But casinos also have an obligation in this agreement. They get to create the game and set the rules -- all of the rules. They can refuse service to you. They can kick you out. They can change the rules of the game. They have all the power. What they don't ever say explicitly is that in their minds, part of this agreement is that you (the gambler) will lose.

So when someone figures out how to beat the game that they created, how can that be unethical? (read the whole thing)

The 17 Most Ridiculous Bets Of This Year's Super Bowl

There are actual betting lines for these events.

Seventeen.  What kind of hat will Bruno Mars wear during the half-time show?  Fedora is such a heavy favorite that you have to bet $100 to win $66. It’s for good reason too. Bruno Mars showing up without a fedora is like Peyton Manning taking the field without a helmet or Joe Buck going live without a can of Aquanet holding his hair in place. It’s possible Mars could rock a fur hat (11/2) or a tuque (5/1), but the “wears no hat” option at 5/2 is absurd.

Sixteen.  Will Richard Sherman get a taunting penalty?  The odds are 4:1 on Yes.  Two weeks ago, maybe. But after his Super Bowl week conversion to NFL statesman, there are better odds Sherman plays a down wearing Bruno Mars’ fedora.

Fifteen.  Coin Toss - heads or tails?  Even.  RJ Bell of Pregame.com says this is the most popular prop bet of the Super Bowl because it’s easy to understand for people who don’t know much about point spreads and over/unders. “There’s also a perversity to it,” he said, “and it’s a topic of conversation.” Plus, bettors like a little action before the game even starts.

Fourteen.  Peyton Manning total passing yards over/under 289.  If coin toss is the most popular novelty, the yardage for the game’s most popular player is always one of the biggest on-field props. Manning threw for over 289 yards in 14 of 18 games this season. Of course, he wasn’t playing the Seahawks defense in any of those.

Thirteen.    Even.  Will the player who scores the first touchdown have a jersey number above or below 79.5?  You’ll push if a player wearing No. 79.5 scores first.

Twelve.   2,500:1.  Seattle or Denver to score exactly two points.  Since the merger, a team has scored exactly two points in a game eight times. But two of those games happened in the past 24 months. I’m just saying.

Eleven.    20:1.  Red Hot Chili Peppers to announce that they have renamed themselves Chili Peppers during the show.  This is a weather related bet, obviously.  Novelty props are easy to bet and the limits on the wagering (often as low as $50 on the quirkiest of props) invite light action.  There’s also another motive for setting ridiculous offerings, like the one above.  The word of mouth and viralness of these is an important consideration, the sports books are thinking if all these media outlets are talking about this, it’s free advertising.