Friday, September 30, 2016

Bloomberg Chart Predicts Trump Will Win, Unless the S&P Rallies in October

October is the bad boy of the stock market. The Panic of 1907, the Crash of 1929, Black Monday in 1987.

It's notable for another reason, too. The performance of Standard & Poor's 500-stock index from July 31 to Oct. 31 has a curious way of predicting the winner of the presidential election. 

As with every prediction, take it with a giant grain of salt. But the pattern is solid, as shown in this chart by Sam Stovall, equity strategist for S&P Global Market Intelligence. When the stock market ends up for the three-month period, the Democrat wins. When it's negative, the Republican wins. Since this July 31, the S&P is in slightly negative territory.

Via Drudge: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-30/this-chart-predicts-trump-will-win-unless-the-s-p-rallies-in-october

10 comments:

edutcher said...

In this case, you'd probably need a real rally to help the Demos.

An '08 style crash (not out of the question[look at what's going on in Deutschland]) or anything like it would be the final nail in Frumpty's coffin and, yes, she had another coughing fit and, yes, she needed help getting down some stairs.

XRay said...

You know, Ed. You almost make me want to vote for Hillary just to show how your prognostications are so wrong. Cripes it gets boring. This is a wide open race, and no one, in so far as I can see, has a clue about how it will end up. It will be a surprise to many of us, I think, no matter the outcome.

edutcher said...

No, it looks like the Demos really are in that much trouble.

I hate to break it to someone who knows better than everyone else, but, when a candidate gives up on Ohio, things are not looking rosy.

In any case, I made no prognostications, but merely noted that, to boost her campaign in economic terms, a hot rally would be necessary and a crash would kill it like it killed McCain's. All was in the realm of the condition

So you need to go look up the definition of the word prognostication.

XRay said...

No, I don't think I do. Good night.

AllenS said...

Watched another short video of Hillary, yesterday, and she needed help to get started to walk down a short set of stairs. She is not well.

edutcher said...

Regarding that, an interesting piece on Frumpty's ongoing vision problems

AprilApple said...

Hope based on superstition.

edutcher said...

Some people can't stand good news.

On that note, consider this item, The Donald has demanded President Pissy not pardon Frumpty.

I wonder what he knows.

ricpic said...

I just read that Hillary mocked Bernie Sanders supporters for "living in their parents' basements." Who knows, maybe she'll out self-destruct Donald.

edutcher said...

He hasn't been self-destructing much lately.

In fact, his needle on Twat is just as sharp, as he stung her about Benghazi yet again.

FWIW Came across this piece by Dr Crowley on how he won Monday. The money quote is, "Debates, however, are less about the nuances of policy and more about style, tone, well-timed zingers, and demonstrating the ability to think on one’s feet", as anyone who remembers 1960 can attest.

In a lighter vein, it's noted men who support Frumpty suffer from low-T and her support among college grads, for all of us who've been told she's the choice of smart people, is mostly from those making less the 35 grand.