Fivethirtyeight: The basic reason is simple. Most of the 2,472 delegates with a vote in Cleveland probably aren’t going to like Trump.
Trump’s delegate problems stem from two major issues. One is his lack of organization: Trump just recently hired a strategist to oversee his delegate-selection efforts; Cruz has been working on the process for months. The other is his lack of support from “party elites.” The people who attend state caucuses and conventions are mostly dyed-in-the-wool Republican regulars and insiders, a group that is vigorously opposed to Trump. Furthermore, some delegate slots are automatically given to party leaders and elected officials, another group that strongly opposes Trump, as evident in his lack of endorsements among them. (read the whole thing)
All the Trump gaffes appear to show a man, as the pundit lingo goes, 'not ready for prime time'. Imagine that. The reason why you don't hear that sort of epithet said about Trump, however, is because it's inconceivable that a man who spent so much time on camera can be said to not be ready for it. And yet... the fact that Trump is not a polished politician is one of the most mentioned charms invoked by his loyal followers. A bit of a catch 22 Trump is.
Talked to my sis last night, the one who LOVES The Apprentice. I asked, from having watched him so long what do you think. She said the thought of him as prez scares her. She thinks he would try to do things that would be dangerous, like change rules with executive power, or the like. She understands about checks and balances. I said he was more likely, in my opinion to create gridlock.
She thinks he would try to do things that would be dangerous, like change rules with executive power, or the like. She understands about checks and balances. I said he was more likely, in my opinion to create gridlock
First, the media and the Democrats (including the Whigs) would discover a newfound reverence for checks and balances in a Trump administration.
Changing rules with executive power is what we have now. Executive orders, within bounds, aren't a bad thing, all Presidents have used them. It's what they're intended to accomplish that's the issue.
As for gridlock, that's not always a bad thing. McConnell promised an end to gridlock and he came through on it. Like the results?
Trump is a deal-maker and I think he would do just that. Reagan did it - he had to, he never had a Republican-controlled Hose and had to build coalitions to get things done.
I know April will have a conniption when she reads that, her fairy tale image of Reagan and all, but that's usually what it takes unless you have the kind of rubber stamp people like FDR and LBJ had. You know how swell things turned out with them.
rcocean said...
No doubt. Its sad that we allow women to vote. They seem to vote on emotion.
That's been my impression.
We could never have a President that looked like Andrew Jackson or Abraham Lincoln, only ones that look like Woody Wilson or Jack Kennedy or Franklin Roosevelt or our own little Pissy.
Ha! Man, talk about flashback, I really gotta lay off the mortadella sandwiches. I was sitting on a ski lift suspended in air not moving, they stop a lot, and a friend was teaching me how to ski better, I admit, he's the best that I know, quite powerful where everyone else is daintily shush shush shush cutting little "s" shapes with their skis, he will cut one single hard-edged completely controlled "C" shape over their multiple "S's". Can you picture this? He's trying to get me to ski the lower ski's edge. It's a one-legged form of skiing, back and forth alternating legs and inside ski edges on turns, crouched and holding the edge, and it's exhausting. F'n exhausting. So he's sitting there pointing out all the wrong things people are doing, "See? That guy is skiing his upper ski." I said, "I'm done learning today."
That became a catchphrase that endured for decades. "I'm done learning today."
There's only so much correction a guy can take in a day.
This video. Writer for SNL, a show I avoid with pre-programmed insistence of my own. Trumpets come on BLAM I'm gone. There is simply no point in enduring it.
Admitting to having a drinking problem in the past, he no longer drinks alcohol. Mulaney has referenced his drinking (often to "blacking out") in his stand-up routines.
How terribly funny. I see on YouTube if I would just listen then I'd know he's comparing Trump to an excellent contestant on Family Feud, another program that never gets watched. It must be Mulaney's conceptualization of Family Feud and not the actual rather boring Family Feud that has family members attempt to answer questions as the audience does.
"Things never to pull at party conventions"
"Um, let's see, steal the nomination from the clear will of the party base?"
*ding, panel flips* 2! Two audience members agree!
If I would only listen to the SNL comedian who drinks to black out, I must say, that's a lot of drinking, a thing I cannot do, if I would only just allow it and listen then maybe I'd learn he's describing an actual feud within a family, perhaps, or between families, and not a matching guessing game of categories and types.
Okay I watched. Got so far as, "To me Trump is not a rich man, he's more like what a bum thinks a rich man should be."
Point taken. Funny stuff right there. Based upon the upturned truth concerning wealth and perception of wealth, ostentatious wealth. Have a fun time imagining the thing that's not true. *click*
The show hosted is yet another show I've avoided actively. That's so many shows bundled together I actively avoided watching because they're too fucking stupid to bear. They're honestly too fucking stupid to bear.
SNL Family Feud Mulaney This host's show, Seth something, I think, The Apprentice.
A bundle of avoidance. Any one of those shows gets skipped right past in favor of straight up silliness and things that make even less sense like cartoon, Moms of dancing girls, prancing elite, treehouse builders, pool builders, aquarium builders, people in Alaska shooting bears, people in Louisiana shooting alligators, people in Iowa rummaging through barns, Adventure Time cartoons, all these ridiculous things more imaginative than some liberal twat's wearisome political opinions, especially their opinions of "the other." What's the comedian's take on Hillary's criminal activities of selling offices of state to foreign countries? What's the SNL black out drinking comedian's take on Democrat's straight up Socialist candidate, at this point their party's best option? Rhetorical, I don't want to know. It's not that I don't care, It's that I really don't want to know. )))) SLAM (((((
*Thinks* Jesus Christ, how many times do must I say no?
That's you all over, Troop. Trying to get out of the accusation that Lem invaded by sea with a joke.
I could write a whole essay now on the realization that you're not going to charm your way out of anything (that would be me) and should have concentrated on wealth building after which you don't have to charm your way either out of or into anything or anyone...but I won't because I'm old and you gives a s**t anyway.
That's why I admire you so much Lem. Risking so much to get to America by floating all the way here on an inner tube. I just don't know how you got to stay. I thought we only took short stops and bodega owners from the Dominican.
A couple days ago our community organizer lectured the world on how dangerous a man like Trump would be since he does not have knowledge of international relations. To date, I have heard no one lambast Obama on that horseshit comment. In my lifetime, the only Presidents w/ more experience than Trump were Ike and old man Bush. With all the Reality TV shit, people don't make substantive retorts. Maybe I missed a reply from The Egomaniac? But, I've not seen it and I've not seen anything from his lemmings here. But, I have seen sexy photos of a Fox personality. You could put a gun to my head and I would not vote for this buffoon. However, where there is actual substance it is lost in the Reality TV mentality of his campaign.
17 comments:
Nate Silver is a Lefty shill who works for the Gray Lady (he's also an economist, another reason not to trust him).
Thing is, how many conventions in recent history went to a second ballot? None that I can remember.
All the Trump gaffs appear to show a man, as the pundit lingo goes, 'not ready for prime time'.
By all means, we want some scripted, pre-programmed automaton who'll do exactly what the party bosses and Goldman Sachs tell him.
PS Gaff is something to hook fish. Gaffe is a political slip of the tongue.
Thanks for the correction Ed... once again.
Not trying to be a pain, but I saw gaff and thought fish.
FWIW a Surber post on some of the intricacies of the Silver method.
Considering the piece linked above, you can see why I don't trust the guy.
Actually Ed, I want people to correct me if I write something incorrectly.
I'm genuinely thankful for the help.
Ok Lem. Please don't say that the Red Sox are a real baseball team and are going to win the pennant. You know you are wrong.
Talked to my sis last night, the one who LOVES The Apprentice. I asked, from having watched him so long what do you think. She said the thought of him as prez scares her. She thinks he would try to do things that would be dangerous, like change rules with executive power, or the like. She understands about checks and balances. I said he was more likely, in my opinion to create gridlock.
"She said the thought of him as prez scares her."
No doubt. Its sad that we allow women to vote. They seem to vote on emotion.
deborah said...
She thinks he would try to do things that would be dangerous, like change rules with executive power, or the like. She understands about checks and balances. I said he was more likely, in my opinion to create gridlock
First, the media and the Democrats (including the Whigs) would discover a newfound reverence for checks and balances in a Trump administration.
Changing rules with executive power is what we have now. Executive orders, within bounds, aren't a bad thing, all Presidents have used them. It's what they're intended to accomplish that's the issue.
As for gridlock, that's not always a bad thing. McConnell promised an end to gridlock and he came through on it. Like the results?
Trump is a deal-maker and I think he would do just that. Reagan did it - he had to, he never had a Republican-controlled Hose and had to build coalitions to get things done.
I know April will have a conniption when she reads that, her fairy tale image of Reagan and all, but that's usually what it takes unless you have the kind of rubber stamp people like FDR and LBJ had. You know how swell things turned out with them.
rcocean said...
No doubt. Its sad that we allow women to vote. They seem to vote on emotion.
That's been my impression.
We could never have a President that looked like Andrew Jackson or Abraham Lincoln, only ones that look like Woody Wilson or Jack Kennedy or Franklin Roosevelt or our own little Pissy.
/ducks
Ha! Man, talk about flashback, I really gotta lay off the mortadella sandwiches. I was sitting on a ski lift suspended in air not moving, they stop a lot, and a friend was teaching me how to ski better, I admit, he's the best that I know, quite powerful where everyone else is daintily shush shush shush cutting little "s" shapes with their skis, he will cut one single hard-edged completely controlled "C" shape over their multiple "S's". Can you picture this? He's trying to get me to ski the lower ski's edge. It's a one-legged form of skiing, back and forth alternating legs and inside ski edges on turns, crouched and holding the edge, and it's exhausting. F'n exhausting. So he's sitting there pointing out all the wrong things people are doing, "See? That guy is skiing his upper ski." I said, "I'm done learning today."
That became a catchphrase that endured for decades. "I'm done learning today."
There's only so much correction a guy can take in a day.
This video. Writer for SNL, a show I avoid with pre-programmed insistence of my own. Trumpets come on BLAM I'm gone. There is simply no point in enduring it.
Admitting to having a drinking problem in the past, he no longer drinks alcohol. Mulaney has referenced his drinking (often to "blacking out") in his stand-up routines.
How terribly funny. I see on YouTube if I would just listen then I'd know he's comparing Trump to an excellent contestant on Family Feud, another program that never gets watched. It must be Mulaney's conceptualization of Family Feud and not the actual rather boring Family Feud that has family members attempt to answer questions as the audience does.
"Things never to pull at party conventions"
"Um, let's see, steal the nomination from the clear will of the party base?"
*ding, panel flips* 2! Two audience members agree!
If I would only listen to the SNL comedian who drinks to black out, I must say, that's a lot of drinking, a thing I cannot do, if I would only just allow it and listen then maybe I'd learn he's describing an actual feud within a family, perhaps, or between families, and not a matching guessing game of categories and types.
Okay I watched. Got so far as, "To me Trump is not a rich man, he's more like what a bum thinks a rich man should be."
Point taken. Funny stuff right there. Based upon the upturned truth concerning wealth and perception of wealth, ostentatious wealth. Have a fun time imagining the thing that's not true. *click*
The show hosted is yet another show I've avoided actively. That's so many shows bundled together I actively avoided watching because they're too fucking stupid to bear. They're honestly too fucking stupid to bear.
SNL
Family Feud
Mulaney
This host's show, Seth something, I think,
The Apprentice.
A bundle of avoidance. Any one of those shows gets skipped right past in favor of straight up silliness and things that make even less sense like cartoon, Moms of dancing girls, prancing elite, treehouse builders, pool builders, aquarium builders, people in Alaska shooting bears, people in Louisiana shooting alligators, people in Iowa rummaging through barns, Adventure Time cartoons, all these ridiculous things more imaginative than some liberal twat's wearisome political opinions, especially their opinions of "the other." What's the comedian's take on Hillary's criminal activities of selling offices of state to foreign countries? What's the SNL black out drinking comedian's take on Democrat's straight up Socialist candidate, at this point their party's best option? Rhetorical, I don't want to know. It's not that I don't care, It's that I really don't want to know. )))) SLAM (((((
*Thinks* Jesus Christ, how many times do must I say no?
I'm finished learning today.
Lem, your problem with Trump is that he's going to build a wall. Just say it. No ones going to faint
That's not Lem's problem. He came to this country in an inner tube. He would only be worried if Trump set up a net. Not a wall.
(Quick. Is he laughing? Dominicans carry knives you know. They will cut a bitch)
That's you all over, Troop. Trying to get out of the accusation that Lem invaded by sea with a joke.
I could write a whole essay now on the realization that you're not going to charm your way out of anything (that would be me) and should have concentrated on wealth building after which you don't have to charm your way either out of or into anything or anyone...but I won't because I'm old and you gives a s**t anyway.
and who not and you -- Oy.
I can't swim so Troops right. The net is the one i fear... Not.
That's why I admire you so much Lem. Risking so much to get to America by floating all the way here on an inner tube. I just don't know how you got to stay. I thought we only took short stops and bodega owners from the Dominican.
You are one lucky stiff.
A couple days ago our community organizer lectured the world on how dangerous a man like Trump would be since he does not have knowledge of international relations. To date, I have heard no one lambast Obama on that horseshit comment. In my lifetime, the only Presidents w/ more experience than Trump were Ike and old man Bush. With all the Reality TV shit, people don't make substantive retorts. Maybe I missed a reply from The Egomaniac? But, I've not seen it and I've not seen anything from his lemmings here. But, I have seen sexy photos of a Fox personality. You could put a gun to my head and I would not vote for this buffoon. However, where there is actual substance it is lost in the Reality TV mentality of his campaign.
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