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Is Donald Trump hiding those fingers because
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http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2016/03/ed-morrissey-asks-is-wisconsin-waterloo.html
Friday, April 1, 2016
EBL: things are definitely getting interesting
http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/2016/03/ed-morrissey-asks-is-wisconsin-waterloo.html
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45 comments:
Just for the record, we already have a head cheese. That would be Dave Sinykin.
Do you have a Big Cheese?
We will have to see but as I understand it the entire Wisconsin Republican party is lined up behind Cruz. Governor Walker and Paul "Hey I am not running but I should be the nominee"Ryan and the rest of the Republicans in the state are all lined up behind Cruz.
So if Trump wins should Cruz concede the election and step aside?
Trump gets in trouble because he is not a politician. He doesn't have a smooth lie to tell when he is hit with a gotcha question. He is too honest. He shoots from the lip and hits his own foot.
On the other hand the fact that he is not a politician is the real basis of his appeal.
Evi is the cow with the links.
Also the question: Is Wisconsin a Waterloo for Trump... or the GOP?
Whether Trump takes Wisconsin or not, the GOP is shooting themselves in the hoof.
Another factor that's going to make things interesting, involves a media that is fired up about something besides global warming and enjoying the energy and sense of purpose they're feeling with Trump in the race and available for press conferences that can be wingy, controversial, and off the rocker. If he wins, they'll have four years of waking up with a mission and how exciting would that be compared to listening to Hillary delivering another round of canned corn? Whatever goes down in Wisconsin or the GOP, there's no going back to the way things were.
Trump is provoking conflict because his values and vision come into direct opposition with the political establishment. And every conflict holds potential, for growth or destruction as outcome. It's more apt to result in growth if it is talked about among those involved. And that's what's I see happening now with the help of the media who can't help themselves or control what's happening without exposing their own values and agenda.
For the record, Michael Haz said he doubted Cruz could take WI with > 3 and he was curious about the data. Haz, if you're around, here's the Marquette data.
Given the PPP, he may be right (Evi's resting her hopes on the Marquette poll, which is asking a lot).
For those interested, Milwaukee, where 70% of the respondents came from, only has 1/9 of the state's population.
On what may be considered a related front, back when Glenn Reynolds was still in contact with reality, he suggested a rapprochement between Trump and Cruz might be the only way to keep the Whigs from winning.
Well, it begins...
Headlines off Drudge:
Looks like Kasich is making his move for the second ballot.
RNC Lays Groundwork for 'Other'.... Technically, other than Trump, but...
Rove: A fresh face might be best for the GOP. And, no, he's not talking the Colossus of Ted.
Trooper York said...
We will have to see but as I understand it the entire Wisconsin Republican party is lined up behind Cruz. Governor Walker and Paul "Hey I am not running but I should be the nominee"Ryan and the rest of the Republicans in the state are all lined up behind Cruz.
So if Trump wins should Cruz concede the election and step aside?
It's considered a must win for him. BTW, it's an open primary, so all those Democrat union guys can vote against Walker.
Tuesday, so close yet so far away.
Wait a minute? It is an "Open primary?"
That means blue collar Dems and independents can vote for Trump?
Well that settles it. If Trump wins it doesn't really count and is just another reason to take the nomination away from him at the convention. How dare he reach out to Non-Republicans!
Can't the blue collar Wisconsin cheeseheads see that the Establishment's beloved so-called free trade is killing them? Trump is the only one who won't rollover to China and Mexico and maybe will even revive the tariff walls America grew behind for....a lot of years. What, you expected me to know exact dates?
Who pays the cost of tariffs?
Reagan didn't like free trade and hiked tariffs significantly.
@edutcher: Thanks for the link to the MU poll data. One-in-nine survey respondents residing in Milwaukee County is odd, to say the least. Milwaukee County is heavily Democrat, and that influences a level of bias in that poll, in my opinion. Also, we aren't given the geographic spread of the remaining respondents. A heavy WOWW response will favor Cruz; and out-state response will favor Trump. Color me skeptical of the 10% spread between Cruz and Trump. I still think Cruz will win, by not by 10%
The private polling must show the spread to be very slim. Otherwise, why would Trump be loading up on rallies and town halls for the next few days? If he was truly 10% behind, he'd be working NY to maintain his lead in that primary (like Hillary is doing).
Schedule per the Trump website.
Saturday 12:00 Racine
Saturday 3:00 Wausau
Saturday 7:00 Eau Claire
Sunday 7:00 West Allis (Greta Van Sustren)
Monday 10:00 LaCrosse
Monday 7:00 Milwaukee (Sean Hannity)
@Trooper - Wisconsin has an open primary. Any registered voter with a photo ID can vote for any candidate in either party.
Michael Haz said...
@edutcher: Thanks for the link to the MU poll data
We live to swerve.
The private polling must show the spread to be very slim. Otherwise, why would Trump be loading up on rallies and town halls for the next few days? If he was truly 10% behind, he'd be working NY to maintain his lead in that primary (like Hillary is doing).
You read my nasty little mind. PPP (second para) and the Optimus poll (the latter a week old) show things much tighter.
You know the ground, but a lot of people would like a free shot at Scott Walker and, as Troop has noted, Trump does well in open primaries.
Who pays the cost of tariffs?
Initially? The public will in the form of increased cost of manufactured goods and items imported from those countries that have tariffs placed upon them.
If those same or equivalent goods are manufactured in the US or can be obtained from countries that are not under the tariff restrictions, then people will move to purchase from other sources. Other countries. Other similar goods.
Fungible goods. Fungibility is the property of a good or a commodity whose individual units are capable of mutual substitution. That is, it is the property of essences or goods which are "capable of being substituted in place of one another."
If the product is not a necessary one, like many of the chotchkies people buy from China, then the people will stop buying. They aren't necessary.
IF the products are needed, wanted and the people will pay the price to make it feasible, then manufacturing will arise to replace the goods that are now too expensive to be purchased because of the tariffs. Thereby creating jobs and keeping cash within the US and decreases the negative trade balances where our cash is going OUT and not coming back into the country. Businesses will need to look very carefully at whether the demand is there, if the cost of production can complete with the manufactured overseas products.
If "some" things are more expensive, people will find substitutes and if the components in production are not available elsewhere, the products manufactured will also be more expensive.
However, if the end result...IF!!!....is that there are more people working in higher paying manufacturing jobs, it may ..for the entire economy be a plus. For some individuals, it will probably suck.
It gets weirder. Cruz just announced a Monday morning town hall with Megyn Kelly in Madison. It's odd that he'd so a town hall in a heavily Democrat city, but maybe there is some crossover voting being projected.
I'm looking forward to EBL (the cow, not the whatever) providing on scene reporting.
And now Sarah Palin has landed in Wisconsin to stump for Trump.
https://www.facebook.com/sarahpalin/photos/a.10150723283643588.424640.24718773587/10154104784118588/?type=1&theater
Cruz has proposed a 16% tax on all imports.
WI has been built up so much that, if it's any kind of squeaker, it's still a win for Trump. The Uni-party wants a blowout and, if they don't get it, they get to look stupid and, worse, impotent.
Michael Haz said...
It gets weirder. Cruz just announced a Monday morning town hall with Megyn Kelly in Madison. It's odd that he'd so a town hall in a heavily Democrat city, but maybe there is some crossover voting being projected.
In PA, lots of Demos are crossing over so they can vote for Trump. If WI Demos hate Walker as much as claimed, embarrassing him by going for Trump after he endorsed Cruz would be one way to nail him. This piece would seen to indicate that.
Ha! I'm driving around and heard a Cruz radio ad in which he promised to "bring back our jobs from China". I laughed so hard I almost hit the curb. His campaign is morphed into "Being Donald Trump."
He wasn't doing too well being Ted Cruz.
Maybe it's a lot closer than we think (Last Refuge had a good piece on the principle of trust nothing and it's probably good advice).
The last piece I linked showed the RCP average as Cruz 33 Trump 32 (maybe in one of the links). I dislike the RCP average as it's easily skewed, but who knows right now?
I can only speak for myself. I do get some pleasure seeing the MSM constantly piss on both legs getting shrill about Trump. I do love seeing the politicians and operatives shitting their pants over Trump. But, that does not, and never will, make me have an ounce of respect for that egomaniac buffoon.
If Trump is smart he'll eat a fish fry tonight and have prime rib tomorrow @ a supper club. However, he has one big drawback. He's a teetotaler.
Many a good man has scorned demon rum.
edutcher, I have no problem w/ abstinence. I'm on the wagon for about a year now. I've gone through long periods of abstinence getting and keeping my diabetes under control. It's just that WI. is an alcoholic state and some Cheeseheads won't abide Trump being a nondrinker. Does Cruz drink?
It's crazy but shit like this is what many people use to decide for whom to vote.
We still have a 25% tariff on imported light trucks and truck-frame SUV's. It is continued for 13 years by the TPP after which time it will be subject to renegotiation.
ndspinelli said...
edutcher, I have no problem w/ abstinence. I'm on the wagon for about a year now. I've gone through long periods of abstinence getting and keeping my diabetes under control
Many congrats.
My dad had a drinking problem and it took most of his life to kick it, so I know what it means.
The Blonde can give you chapter and verse on the importance of staying on the wagon if you're diabetic. Her experience on Med-Surg and other floors brought her into contact with a great many diabetics.
It's crazy but shit like this is what many people use to decide for whom to vote.
They're called single issue voters.
Does Cruz drink?
Cruz, or his wife, is Seventh Day Adventist, so no booze.
Officially.
Oh I bet Cruz has a snort when he is consorting with hookers. It stands to reason.
More: FNC's Chris Wallace will have Trump for the full hour Sunday morning. Greta reports on her blog that she and her staff have made numerous requests of the Cruz campaign that she host a town hall with Cruz. Cruz has not responded to any of those requests.
Speaking of tariffs, remember when President Reagan imposed a tariff on imported motorcycles while Harley Davidson got back on its feet? People were pretty okay with that, as it increased American jobs in one sector.
edutcher, I am blessed. I can drink or not drink. It takes virtually no willpower. Here's my conundrum. My grandfather was a teetotaler and died of a stroke @ 57. My old man drank very little and stroked out @ 72. Neither had diabetes. I didn't drink for almost a decade but decided to go back to 1-2 drinks a day in 2008 because of the stroke risk. But, my sugar #'s were up in early 2015 so I quit drinking again. But, I am not totally confident not drinking. It's all about balance.
Great answer to my question, DBQ, but there is one part everyone seems to forget about tariffs. They call them trade wars for a reason. The other countries fight back. Everything we export then gets tariffed by the importing countries destroying our export markets thus killing the best jobs we have, as well as other markets we export like agricultural products. The worst part of this is that once their tariffs restrict our products to their markets, their domestic investment in those markets takes off, and then we never get them back and they eventually take the worldwide market from us in the only things we have left that we dominate. You can see what happens. We get back obsolete jobs, and sacrifice our best ones. War is hell.
"Cruz, or his wife, is Seventh Day Adventist, so no booze."
OK, now that actually does hurt my opinion of Cruz, because I believe it, and it's damned-near unforgivable, especially on FRIDAYYYYYYY!.
Tariffs are not equal to trade wars. We have tariffs today, we had them yesterday, and we'll have them tomorrow. A 236% tariff on Chinese made steel is one thing, a 10% tariff on Chinese made autos is another.
Import duties don't have to be prohibitive to be effective.
Love the visual, Deborah. Spot on. Faux cheese with a Napoleon complex.
It's EBL's, if you dared to look, imported from his/her blog.
ndspinelli said...
edutcher, I am blessed. I can drink or not drink. It takes virtually no willpower. Here's my conundrum. My grandfather was a teetotaler and died of a stroke @ 57. My old man drank very little and stroked out @ 72. Neither had diabetes. I didn't drink for almost a decade but decided to go back to 1-2 drinks a day in 2008 because of the stroke risk. But, my sugar #'s were up in early 2015 so I quit drinking again. But, I am not totally confident not drinking. It's all about balance.
So you have to watch your circulatory problems.
The Blonde is in the exact same place
I would put big dollars on the chance that we end up w/ a fucking NYer as President. Funny, the candidate[Sanders] who has been out of NY for 40 years has the strongest NY accent. Tough to get rid of that stink.
nd, the country is sick of dynasties and the Uni-Party.
For good or ill, that puts us in the Empire State.
Bernie's economics and politics notwithstanding, I do have to admire the guy.
The time was he was an afterthought. It was all Queen Cacklepants, but, give him credit, he hung in.
The last New Yorker who was President was FDR.
Was there ever one from Wisconsin?
Ha,ha,ha,ha. Seriously? Ha.
Virgina is the State with the most Presidents. Ohio is second. New York is third. Tied with Massachusetts. Two Roosevelt's. Martin Van Buren. Millard Fillmore.
Millard Fillmore. A very underrated President.
He opened trade with Japan.
His night clubs in NYC and SF were totes awesome.
If you liked Napoleon Dynamite, you might like Bernie in Brooklyn
I did like Napoleon Dynamite. Mostly it was the joy of watching it w/ my kids and their friends. Having kids opens up your horizons.
bagoh20: The worst part of this is that once their tariffs restrict our products to their markets, their domestic investment in those markets takes off, and then we never get them back and they eventually take the worldwide market from us in the only things we have left that we dominate.
This process of losing markets and market dominance occurs (is occurring right now) under "free trade" conditions, too. Also, you seem to be saying that reciprocal tariifs and domestic investment works positively in the long run for one trade partner and not the other. Or perhaps only that free trade can prevent losing markets that we now dominate. Also not true.
Jus' sayin'. No expert, but interested enough in the topic to have concluded that a lot of people "know what ain't so" when it comes to how free trade and protectionism play out empirically and historically rather than theoretically. Free trade works best, except when it doesn't, and protectionism doesn't work, except when it does.
The thing is the pressure will be just as bad on China as it is on us. They have developed an nascent consumer society that would not take well to a big drop in income. So they might be willing to make an accommodation. Especially if a loose cannon like Trump is in charge. The Chinese hate unpredictability.
They are going to realize that we live in interesting times.
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