No, rcocean, they extrapolated that number from other numbers they fudged and rounded the result, a guess actually, real round, super round, not just regular round, nice round greased up with roundest numbers of all, zeros for ease of pulling from one's butt ))) pop ((( There's your number of years, a thousand.
But understand, that does not mean that such a flood happens every one thousand years, no, this is more scientifically butt-pulled probabilistic than that, what this claim means is each year has one in one-thousand chance to be such a butt-pulled thousand year flood year. So it's possible to have two such tremendous butt-pulled thousand year flood years in a row.
This is the problem with probabilities. The way I see the problem is how the question is asked, what question is being answered. If the question is what are the chances of this year being a flood year then the answer in the butt-pulling cosmology numbers says, "one in one thousand." Just like last year and just like next year.
But if you asked the question, what are the chances of having two or three consecutive butt-pulled thousand year floods years in a row, then the answer would be one in some billions.
Same with dice. But the science of probabilities insists the next roll has the same chances independent of all previous rolls, because the question is; what are the chances of this roll, not what are the chances of two or three rolls in a row.
7 comments:
Gladii, not gladius.
Gladius is a roman sword by the way. Also, the proper use of Gojira along with the River Monster guy requires the pronouncement of "FISH ON!!!"
I hope Sixty got his ark built in time.
The rains came back today.
Sunny in NE Ohio.
Wow, so the Indians were taking Rain measurements from 1015 to 1607? Who knew?
No, rcocean, they extrapolated that number from other numbers they fudged and rounded the result, a guess actually, real round, super round, not just regular round, nice round greased up with roundest numbers of all, zeros for ease of pulling from one's butt ))) pop ((( There's your number of years, a thousand.
But understand, that does not mean that such a flood happens every one thousand years, no, this is more scientifically butt-pulled probabilistic than that, what this claim means is each year has one in one-thousand chance to be such a butt-pulled thousand year flood year. So it's possible to have two such tremendous butt-pulled thousand year flood years in a row.
This is the problem with probabilities. The way I see the problem is how the question is asked, what question is being answered. If the question is what are the chances of this year being a flood year then the answer in the butt-pulling cosmology numbers says, "one in one thousand." Just like last year and just like next year.
But if you asked the question, what are the chances of having two or three consecutive butt-pulled thousand year floods years in a row, then the answer would be one in some billions.
Same with dice. But the science of probabilities insists the next roll has the same chances independent of all previous rolls, because the question is; what are the chances of this roll, not what are the chances of two or three rolls in a row.
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