Going to Iran

At RCP George Friedman of Stratfor recounts the reason we went to China (to counterbalance Soviet aggression), and why it is important we go to Iran.  Although they consider us the Great Satan who staged a 1953 coup against them, and we consider them religious extremists who have worked with other countries to thwart us, he brings home the point that pragmatism trumps ideology saying, "In the early days of the Islamic republic, whenever Tehran was confronted with  American interests, it would pull closer to the Soviet Union, an atheistic country...a counterweight to the United States and put ideology aside, even in its earliest, most radical days."

Concerning the recent breakdown in nuclear talks, he believes the actual goal of the talks will be restructuring the balance of power:

The real negotiations will come after the nuclear and sanctions issues are addressed. They will pertain to U.S.-Iranian relations more broadly. Each side will use the other to its advantage. The Iranians will use the United States to repair its economy, and the Americans will use the Iranians to create a balance of power with Sunni states. This will create indirect benefits for both sides. Iran's financial woes will be an opportunity for American companies to invest. The Americans' need for a balance of power will give Iran weight against its own enemies, even after the collapse of its strategy. 

The region will of course look different but not dramatically so. The balance of power idea does not mean a rupture with Saudi Arabia or Israel. The balance of power only works if the United States maintains strong relationships on all sides. The Saudis and Israelis will not like American rebalancing. Their choices in the matter are limited, but they can take comfort from the fact that a strictly pro-Iranian policy is impossible for the United States. The American strategy with China in the 1970s was to try to become the power that balanced the Soviet Union and China. After meeting with the Chinese, Henry Kissinger went to Moscow. Thus, in terms of bilateral relationships, U.S.-Saudi and U.S.-Israeli relations can stay the same. But it now creates another relationship and option for the United States. In the end, Iran is still a secondary power and the United States is the primary power. Iran will take advantage of the relationship, and the United States will manage it. 

The U.S., Iran, Israel, Russia, China, and Europe all have problems with Sunni radical extremism, and as Saudi Arabia is a large exporter of it, this shifting of power will likely be of great benefit.