Well, That's A Relief

Observations made in March enabled astronomers to determine that the asteroid Apophis, which had been given a 2.7% chance of hitting the Earth on April 13, 2029 (Friday, of course), will in fact miss us.

Apophis is a stony asteroid about 1,100 feet across, weighing around 60 million tons. If it struck the Earth it would release the equivalent of 1,200 megatons of TNT -- that's 75,000 Hiroshima bombs, or 24 of the biggest nuclear weapon ever exploded, Tsar Bomba. It would, I'm guessing, make for a really bad year, and a pretty bad next five years or so, but wouldn't be a civilization-killer. By contrast, the Chicxulub impact, which wiped out the dinosaurs and 75% of everybody else, is rated at one hundred million megatons.

It won't miss by much, though -- about 20,000 miles. Which, in astronomical terms, is about one-fifth of a cat's whisker. In fact, we have hundreds of active satellites (those blue dots in the video above) in geosynchronous orbit, which is 22,500 miles out. I want to know what the chances are that Apophis will perturb some of their orbits and make them useless, or even hit one. That would be fun to watch.

Life on Venus?

Maybe. Not giant lizard-fish, but possibly, conceivably, microbes way up in the atmosphere. Here is a good look at the story.

It won't be easy to confirm the existence of those microbes, but if it can be done, it will have large implications for SETI, the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence. If I know that you own a television, that tells me almost nothing about your neighborhood. But if I know that both you and your next-door neighbor have one, it's a good bet most of the other houses do as well. Finding that life arose on Venus as well as Earth will strongly suggest that life on rocky planets is common.

Which has implications for this:

That's Drake's Equation, which will be 60 years old next year. It's a way to estimate how many technological species are in our galaxy. Each of the seven variables is the answer to a question. We're working toward solid answers to the first three; for the others, we just have no idea. Finding life on Venus would move one of them -- fl, "on what fraction of suitable planets does life appear?" -- from "wild-ass guess" toward "solid answer" and push the equation's result in the "sentient life may be common" direction.

Which in turn would bring up Enrico Fermi's famous question, asked in 1950: Where are they?

Finally, A Cool Spaceship

What We Were Promised

What We Got

SpaceX Starship

The SpaceX Starship may begin orbital flights as early as next year.
Fins, wings, and stainless freaking steel. Thank you, Mr. Musk.

Space Act of 2015

The recent passage of the Space Act of 2015 in the U.S. House and Senate [still needing the president's signature] marks a key milestone for the commercial space industry. Ever since the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, nations have been banned from claiming or appropriating any celestial resource such as the Moon or another planet. Formally titled the “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies,” the nearly fifty year old agreement has formed the basis of international space law ever since.

...It’s been estimated that a single platinum-rich asteroid 90 feet in diameter could be worth as much as $50 billion. Though these are still early days, there’s considerable speculation that space mining could eventually become a multi-trillion dollar industry. While many of the key players have been hesitant to publicly state specific timetables, some indications have been given for when active space mining might be expected. A recent study sponsored by the Keck Institute for Space Studies determined that a 500 metric ton asteroid could be captured and delivered to high lunar orbit where it would be mined for resources by 2025. That study was co-authored by two members of the asteroid mining operation, Planetary Resources. Another space venture, Deep Space Industries (DSI) has said it is planning to use materials made from mined asteroids, including fuel, water, metals and alloys, for in-space manufacture by the 2020s. Currently, a number of these companies are in the process of testing equipment on earth and in orbit, as well as surveying, identifying and analyzing prospective target asteroids.

...Will this truly launch a new industry of space mining? Only time will tell. But as Eric Anderson, co-founder and co-chairman of Planetary Resources stated following Congressional passage of the Act, “Many years from now, we will view this pivotal moment in time as a major step toward humanity becoming a multi-planetary species. This legislation establishes the same supportive framework that created the great economies of history, and it will foster the sustained development of space.”

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-dawn-of-the-space-mining-age/

First Ever Vine From Space

Astronaut sends first ever Vine from space http://t.co/5sQH2NHbb1 https://t.co/duKcylMNzQ
— Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline) June 9, 2014

Bill Richardson, genius?

Well it's about time!

If the FAA approves we'll have Virgin Galactic spaceships launching from New Mexico.   The only thing sort of nearby is Whitesands, but I'm assuming they've got this figured out with the Air Force already.

Bill Richardson made a big deal about building a spaceport here (he was big on film kick-backs too) and while I'm skeptical of the economic wisdom involved I'm extra excited that maybe, just maybe, the facilities of Spaceport America aren't going to resemble one of those photo documentaries of abandoned Soviet architecture. 

Spaceport America - from above it looks slightly like a bed pan.

This is a video from a few years ago of a Spaceship Two test flight.  I believe that "feathering" is a re-entry maneuver.