Thursday, December 27, 2018

What the media isn't telling you about this year's holiday spending

 I'll get to it. Bear with me. Or skip to the end if you like.

MAGA economics is a forceful shifting from Wall Street economics with its emphasis on global industries, production and services to Main Street economics with its emphasis on domestic industries, production and services.

As a result of Trump's policies, America is doing better relative to other nations. Therefore, expect the stock market to be shaken. And it was. In a very big way. But now it's back due to the confidence shown by consumer spending over the holiday season. In a very big way. Natural for a consumer driven economy.

But for how long? Nothing has changed in the colossal shift of MAGA policies. And nothing has changed in the Wall Street focus of economic reporting.

<anecdote>
On Christmas I walked into a small party already in progress. The first words I heard were, "Now would be a good time to invest." (I'm guessing, because the stock market is so low)

I said, "If you were confident about about your presumptions, then it would be worth it to invest with borrowed money in a very big way."


NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo. NOOOoooooo.

All around.

See how conservative all my liberal Hillary-voting media-heeding bumper sticker reading late night show watching friends are?

There is no way on Earth they'd ever borrow money to invest in something so uncertain as the stock market. They are not that confident about what they are talking about.

Yet, had they done that to the tune of a few hundred thousand on Christmas day, they'd be millionaires the next day. That's how shockingly sharp the increase was in one day!

Then sell.

Because nothing has actually changed. There's still a shift from global to domestic and all the reporting is still all Wall Street oriented. You'll have the cash to buy back if the market holds steady.

And if you were savvy then you'd set aside your anti-Trump biases for the sake of being wealthy and accept his policies as dominant and invest in domestic industry, production and services, for solid present day investments.

But that is not possible. Nobody I know and speak to will see this.

It's in the dna makeup of economists that tariffs are bad. Bad. Bad. Bad. Every economist learns this. It's axiomatic. Always. Because it's the opposite of free trade.

Unreported, is the situation we're in is already the opposite of free trade. That's what we're living in presently, chugging along poorly. Free Trade is a myth. That's the false premise of our global economy that has all our treaties to US disadvantage and to the advantage of everyone else. Trump's MAGA policies are intended to match at least partially the tariffs and layers of clever non-tariff barriers already held against the United States. The ultimate goal is to have all economic barriers lifted. That is the objective. But until then Trump is giving our trading partners a sour taste of their own medicine until they can agree to lower their unfair barriers against American productivity.

But because it's Trump, and because it's American tariffs, all the reporting is bad, bad, bad, orange man bad.

[I'll only mention that even the Federal Reserve has been patently politicized, although they'll be quick to shout otherwise. They buttressed Obama's miserable economy by lowering interest rates to the point of negative interest rates, and I cannot even see how that works, to the extent of forfeiting control over their main tool of affecting the economy because there was no place left to go. Had they not then Obama's economy would be even worse than it was. They did what had never been done all to buttress Obama. And then sharply reversed their practices with Trump by  raising interest rates immediately and sequentially thereafter unnecessarily effectively sabotaging Trump's booming economy, making it worse than it would be. The Federal Reserve interfered to the extent that it can interfere. They will tell you it's to regain the control over their main tool, adjusting interest rates, and to check inflation, but at this point it's obviously political.]

So expect that to be reflected in the stock market that is oriented toward international businesses.

The tell of Wall Street oriented analysis and all of economic reporting is in the manner of reporting between years. The media takes their signals from Wall Street analysts, as they must because they  are the hired experts.

In 2017 regarding seasonal sales, not just Christmas buying, the figure includes purchases of automobiles, appliances, home upgrades, car tires and the like, the media reported, total retail sales added up to a record $598 billion dollars -- up $33 billion from last year.

In 2018 media reported, U.S. consumers spent over $850 billion this holiday season, suggesting a stock-market swoon and partial government shutdown haven't curbed consumer confidence spending.

They had to throw that in. Their reporting would be incomplete without their vapid dig at orange man.

F. U. Media. You purposefully omitted that's up an astonishing jaw-dropping $252 billion from last year!

252/598 = .42

That's an incredible unbelievable 42% increase over last year's seasonal spending, but our Media cannot tell that to their viewers because tariffs bad, orange man bad, government shutdown bad, stock market instability bad. Bad, bad, bad.

You're supposed to be miserable, not satisfied with more jobs and with pay increases and with lowered taxes. Your consumer driven economy is supposed to be miserable because Wall Street analysts said so because they are miserable with the astoundingly massive shift they cannot control.

All because of horrible orange man.

If you like, notice the Wall Street-based questioning from reporters and analysts to a former Walmart CEO. The analysts simply cannot internalize MAGA policies are shifting ineluctably from an emphasis on Wall Street globalization that largely deemphasizes America, to MAGA policies that emphasizes Main Street economics and to the economic wellbeing of Americans.

4 comments:

ampersand said...

These days the rule is if the market goes down it's Trump's fault and if the market goes up then change the subject.

AllenS said...

The markets were shaken when the Democrats took over the House. Nothing says uncertainty than guessing what the Democrats are capable of.

edutcher said...

Best holiday in 6 years.

ricpic said...

You should go into this market, or any market, with extreme trepidation. Why? Because nowhere can as much money be lost as quickly as in the market. Go in only after having read a company's balance sheet yourself, do not trust any researcher's recommendation. If reading balance sheets is beyond your ability or is too much trouble don't invest. Period. And after all that you can still lose your shirt. On the flip side many have done very well. But it's always a gamble and therefore if you are not the type who loves adventure don't do it.