Sunday, October 23, 2016

"Podesta Email Exposes Dem Playbook For Rigging Polls Through "Oversamples""


edutcher said...

This is what I've been talking about and this is the significance of Ned Silver's memo to Monmouth Polls.

Gateway, of course, has had a ton of posts on this, the latest being this one

Last Refuge has also done yeoman service on the subject.

What's interesting is that the real pollsters haven't a clue as to how this all turns out, witness this interview with Pat Caddell.

And this is the money quote, All of the tracking polls keep holding at Trump being ahead,” he continued. “And then all of these other polls that are one-off polls, or whatever … I don’t know how they’re doing some of these university polls. You just put the name of some university and apparently it becomes credible, whether they know what they’re doing, or not.

This is why I've tried to keep my cool over all the panic and propaganda out there. You see where the methodology is going and it's clearer what to trust - and distrust.

And an interesting demographic to conjure with - the number of households with landlines has dropped by a third in the last 4 years. I know they can go through the phone numbers sequentially, but the old method of landlines was more dependable; since there's no mobile white pages, it's becoming more hit and miss.

Chip Ahoy said...

There's quite a lot of rigging going on around here. All these things happened right here in Denver.

I rigged a couple model ships. As a boy I rigged a model U.S.S. Constitution and when I was done my sister carelessly tossed her coat on it. (I see that I have a teensy bit of a problem with forgiveness) And I rigged a whole bunch of wooden model Yachts. Here's one that I still have. It's rather large, Marge.

I got real close to an oil rig once.

Was almost crushed by a semi rig on the highway, whew, that sure was a close one.

I read some of the Rig Veda until I realized it's all about evoking the gods to grant earthly wishes, wealth, health, long life, progeny and the like. No spiritual development whatsoever. Booooo Guuuuus.

In Boy Scouts I learned how to rig a booby trap. Jeeze the mean things we got up to.

One time I packed a parachute rig.

I helped my brother rig his bathroom plumbing on one of is rental houses.

In turn he helped me rig my sound system.

Our building is rigged with a security call box, and people cannot read the instructions so I get a lot of calls from people down there trying to get in.

Once I bought a used Audi that was rigged with a push button starter.

rhhardin said...

A colleague was writing up the requirements for a certain Navy job and included that the job required two riggers.

It came back from typing as two colored gentlemen.

rhhardin said...

Oversampling is a legitimate technique. You oversample the demographics with the largest variance, and undersample the ones with the smallest variance. After all, if all Republicans vote the same say, you need to sample only one Republican.

But you're supposed to weight the results to compensate for the oversampling to get the prediction, which will then be better than a prediction with random sampling.

AprilApple said...

Jan 10, 2008.

That's the sent date on that e-mail?

AprilApple said...

There is NO question the media and the democrat party are in bed. There is NO question that the biases of the MSM spin for democrats and spin against R's. There is NO question the media hide, cover, ignore and diminish whole sections of real "news" that points to criminality and corruption on the D-side. There is NO question that the MSM donate to the democrats. There is NO question that the MSM and democrats coordinate their message. There is NO question that Chuck Todd is a Democrat. There is NO question that "news" is not "news", it is, rather, opinion masquerading as "news".

That does not mean that all the polls are wrong and that Trump is secretly winning this thing.

edutcher said...


If they were doing it then, they're doing it now.

Some polls have Trump ahead, but we don't look at those.

Methadras said...

I really really hate I told you so's, but I told you so. All of the polls you've seen up to this date are all designed to demoralize Trump voters. This is how democrats do it. They take no prisoners and republicans can't wait to get on their backs with their legs spread open for penetration.

edutcher said...

Unless their name is Trump.