Thursday, September 29, 2016

A view from Youngstown PA.....not from Pundit USA which is totally out of touch with the electorate this election

How Trump won over a bar full of undecideds and Democrats

 New York Post

YOUNGSTOWN, Pa. — Ken Reed sat down at the main bar of the Tin Lizzy tavern with two things in mind: to dig into the tavern’s oversize cheese steak, and watch the presidential debate.
“I am hungry and undecided, in that order,” he said, digging into the savory dish in a bar that dates back to 1746.
Kady Letoksy, a paralegal by day, a waitress and bartender at night at the Tin Lizzy, sat beside him. At 28, she has never voted before, and she is now thinking it might be a good idea to start.
Letosky entered the evening undecided in a town that is heavily Democratic in registration. Her sister and father are on opposite sides of the political aisle. Donald “Trump had the upper hand this evening,” she said, citing his command of the back-and-forth between him and Hillary Clinton.
Reed, 35, is a registered Democrat and small businessman. “By the end of the debate, Clinton never said a thing to persuade me that she had anything to offer me or my family or my community,” he said, sitting at the same bar that has boasted local icons as regulars, such as the late Fred Rogers, and Arnold Palmer, who had his own stash of PM Whiskey hidden behind newer bottles of whiskey for his regular visits.

“Have to say Trump had the edge this evening, he came out swinging but also talked about specifics on jobs and the economy,” Reed said.
Reed said Clinton came across as either smug or as though she was reading her résumé, adding there was nothing on her résumé that touched on his life. “I am a small businessman, a farmer, come from a long line of farmers and coal miners. The policies she talked about tonight ultimately either hurt me or ignore me,” he said.
How apropos for this presidential election that these patrons chose the Tin Lizzy — a 270-year-old tavern in this small Westmoreland County town — as the place to watch the historic debate between Clinton and Trump.
The tavern’s namesake is the Model T, the first affordable automobile available to America’s working class, which eventually became slang for something quite different.
If someone said you were “going the way of the Tin Lizzy,” it meant your job or industry was in decline, no longer useful.
That is how today’s cosmopolitan and political classes view Main Street voters — as people whose values, traditions, skills, jobs and lives are being replaced by something new.
“I’ve been a Democrat all of my life, but when Clinton mentions her husband and the jobs he brought to the country in the ’90s, it’s not a fair assessment. She is no moderate Democrat the way he was, her policies would not bring back jobs,” said Nathan Nemick.
It burns Nemick when Clinton references her husband, like she did in the debate on trade and jobs. “She is nothing like him,” he said of the Democrat he admired in his youth.
Pennsylvania is a high-stakes state for both candidates, but particularly Clinton, and Westmoreland is a high-stakes county, particularly for Trump.
She needs to win this state, and he needs not just to win this county but to do so by 2,000 more votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012.
Westmoreland is one of about 10 formerly or traditionally Democrat-blue counties across the state where Trump must drive up a higher-than-normal turnout, or even flip them to Republican red, in order to offset an anticipated high turnout for Clinton in Philadelphia.
The other counties are Cambria, Greene, Fayette and Washington in the southwest corner of the state and Bucks, Lackawanna, Lancaster, Luzerne and York in the east.
Modal Trigger
Kady Letosky, 28, of Latrobe, Pa., watches the presidential debate at the Tin Lizzy, a 270-year-old tavern in Youngstown, Pa., on Monday, Sept. 26, 2016.Photo: Justin Merrimen
Between 1960 and 2000, Westmoreland County Democrats handily won presidential races with one exception: Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory.
By 1984, voters here were back to their Democratic allegiances, giving their votes to Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis and Bill Clinton.
When Al Gore turned the party toward its progressive wing in 2000, however, he left behind Westmoreland County Democrats.
Democrats here are more traditional in their values — they are pro-gun, pro-life, pro-coal, something today’s Democratic Party has left no room for.
Trump probably connects better with such voters than did Romney in 2012, or John McCain in 2008; a large part of the reason is his outside-the-box style. Yet for him to win the state, such voters need to turn out in force — here and elsewhere — to offset Philly’s overwhelming numbers.
Before the debate, the latest CNN poll showed a virtual tie in the Keystone State.
Outside the bar, a lone sign lit up the quiet corner of the old Lincoln Highway: “RIP Mr. Palmer, Forever in our hearts,” honoring Arnold Palmer, who died Sunday.
“He was just a regular guy, just a working-class guy at heart like everyone else around here,” said Jim Sciabica, the unofficial bar manager and small businessman who kept “Mr. Palmer’s” PM Whiskey tucked in a corner away from patrons and workers.


edutcher said...

Surber quoted this piece and it shows the criteria on which Trump won.

Trooper York said...

It is interesting because it takes the temperature of regular people in a battleground state. Not talking head pundits in the Beltway bubble.

You don't really know how this will play out. The pundits have been wrong through out the campaign. So I would take their words with a grain of salt.

Trooper York said...

Of course everyone has an agenda. If your whole rationale is that Trump is a fool and a knave you will do all you can to undermine him and discourage his supporters. Nothing he could say and do would be right.

You can convince the unconvincable.

Trooper York said...

The actual words of actual voters will be discounted in favor of the pontifications of George Will and Megyn Kelly.

edutcher said...

FWIW Here's the Surber piece featuring Zito's column and Michael Moore's tweet acknwledging Trump's win, along with another with more of the same from several different writers.

BTW, just for laughs, take a look at the vid here and see if you think Frumpty was shaking off a seizure

The Donald certainly thought so.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

An interesting article, I saw it the day after the debate. I liked how they kept Arnie's favorite whiskey hidden behind the bar.

And we just assumed he only drank ice tea and lemonade.

rcocean said...

"By the end of the debate, Clinton never said a thing to persuade me that she had anything to offer me or my family or my community,”

Well Duh.

But that won't stop stupid middle and working class people from voting for Clinton. Some people are so 'stuck on stupid' it will only take a Depression or massive invasion by ISIS to wake them up.

AprilApple said...

Ace is base.

Embarrassing: Fox Instructs Hosts Not to Cite Meaningless Online Polls Because They're Not Even Polls

" They had to warn Sean Hannity about this.

Of course, Trump is out there complaining that the media isn't noticing how well he did in the "online polls."

Does Trump know these aren't real polls? Does he know these are just click-suck jerkoff-bait for people? Does he know "online polls" are just a progressive tax on desperation, ill-education, and idleness levied by 23-year-old neckbeards looking for an easy way to goose their traffic numbers?

I think he probably does, but that leads to the next problem: Someone who can't tell a plausible lie from an implausible lie is just as dumb as someone who doesn't even realize his claim is a lie in the first place.

Can the entire online right just get its shit together and finally comprehend there is no such thing as an "online poll"? It says right at the bottom: Not a scientific poll. For entertainment purposes only.

Which is itself a lie; they're not for your entertainment, they're there so that a site can pad its traffic stats for the day by getting ignorant people to link its stupid fake poll.

And that's why no one cites these polls: because they're not polls.

They're chum for the dumb.

Stop already. It's beyond embarrassing at this point. "

AprilApple said...

Donald Trump must win the next two debates. If you think he did well in the first debate, we are screwed. Since Trump doesn't seem to want to study or prepare, and he is now drinking the same delusional koolaid as his fan boyz, we are probably screwed. If he actually prepares and avoids the moderator-Clinton traps, (that WILL be set for him) and stays focused, he might stand a chance.

Rhythm and Balls said...

Hmmm. A 28-year old I know says that she thinks the other kids actually are feeling persuadable enough to vote for King Orange, so you might be on to something.

Sounds like a cool bar.

edutcher said...

Trump did what he had to do, accomplished his purpose, and won. Sorry, that's the way it is. And he did avoid all the traps they set, that's why he kept it subdued.


What he does on the next 2 outings may well be immaterial. The arguments are made.

If Trump comes across the way he's been doing so far, that may well be all he needs.

Everyone knows Frumpty is scripted, phony, mean, and doped-up. That shimmy sure looked like she was shaking something off.

If Trump comes off as an honest guy who wants to do right for the country, I think he makes his point and the election is his.

If Pat Caddell's right, we'll see an Armageddon battle as the Establishment fights to hold onto its power. His line, “This is an election where the American people have bolted" is very apt.

edutcher said...

Fox is telling its hosts to ignore how well Trump did in the online polls because it makes Hillary - and all her supporters - look so bad. And that includes Time's and CNBC's.

Which brings us to this, Buzzfeed did a poll and it blew up so badly they felt the need to “update” it because they felt the results “no longer accurately reflects the opinions of real people".

Too cute.

And Ace is just another oasis for the NeverTrumpers. They go along - grudgingly.

Chip Ahoy said...

Trump rallies are massive and amazingly enthusiastic.

Hillary's rallies are nonexistent, poorly attended, and not enthusiastic.

And your silly ass is King Orange.

Methadras said...

I'll be honest and tell you all that I've never in my life seen such dissemination and misinformation and the total collapse of perceived reality among these people who believe they control everything. This election has truly brought out the worst in people like I've never seen before. Utter fear and apathy have such a death grip on everyone that it will be amazing if anyone believes the results short of a landslide.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Does Trump know these aren't real polls? Does he know these are just click-suck jerkoff-bait for people?

I agree that online polls are pretty worthless. The website or blog will attract a group of people who usually tend to be like minded. Usually I say: because this blog attracts people who do have differences and as adults we can deal with that. However, conservative websites like Last Refuge versus Huffington Post or Slate which are liberal will attract an echo chamber of readers.

It is like preaching to the choir and any online poll will be skewed by the self selection of web readers. The other issue with online polls is that one person can vote many many times depending on how many log in accounts they have, ISP addresses etc.

Probably Donald Trump knows this, but uses the sound bite anyway. Who cares.

Pretty much all polls are skewed, weighted or manipulated in some way. Even the most honest efforts of the pollsters can be foiled by the innate tendency of people to lie and just fuck it up on purpose. Ignore the polls.

Julie Pascal said...

I still haven't watched the debate, I probably ought to look it up and do that.

One thing that I thought interesting after the debate was one of my liberal kids texting me that Hillary mocking Trump "does nothing except reinforce the idea that liberals are bullies and pricks". Though I suppose Trump is good at mocking, too. I still was sort of shocked by the comment, mostly because I've been saying things like... Why do you think he's so popular anyway? People are tired of being accused when they haven't *done* anything wrong.

But people are supposed to be above back-lash and anger, so it's the fault of the constantly insulted people and not those who fling the insults. For reasons.

It's hard to convince someone who views their behavior as a noble struggle that they're actually being horrible. Any criticism is personal, because it attacks their value.

But maybe more people are noticing? And maybe all along there were only a few very loud sorts being so horrible? I don't know.

edutcher said...

oopsy, some people are so desperate to hate Trump, they'll grab on to anything.

Fact is, online polls may be lousy, but one would have expected the Lefties would have done a better job stuffing the ballot box.

That's what raised eyebrows.

edutcher said...

PS On the subjecyt of polls ans who won what, Trump is surging in 5 battleground states post debate Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina.

He's also up another 2.8 in in the LAT poll.

For those who only trust media polls.

Titus said...

Love the picture of the bar. Of course i went on their website to see their menu. Looks like a cool place. I think a lot about people in parts of the country where there was no real recovery-really I do. I go on the town's wiki page and look at all the population decreases in these towns that were once thriving and now are shells of their former selves. The cool mom and pop restaurants that are gone. And of course the manufacturing jobs that kept these towns afloat. I read a story in the NYT about Butler, PA-once a great little city, now a very sad place.

I am kind of freak about restaurant menus. I can look at them on Yelp for hours. Love the reviews and pictures too.

AprilApple said...
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AprilApple said...
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AprilApple said...


" I agree that online polls are pretty worthless."

The on-line polls are worthless because it's a small number of people hitting the button over and over. Fun, but worthless.

Clinton, sadly, won the debate because she came prepared, Trump's mic was jacked, and Lester did his part for the DNC-MSM.

Why Trump and Preebus agreed to let Anderson Cooper be a moderator for the next debate, is beyond me.

Just watched CNN while I was out. CNN is just one big Clinton Campaign Ad. They are giddy Trump is *down* 4 in Florida and they are giddy Trump has all but lost his edge in NV. Giddy.

Julie Pascal said...

Reason #52 that people are voting for Trump: "If you don't believe in the Obama recovery, you're a racist."

rcocean said...

taking a poll to see who won the debate is bullshit. Who did they poll? Did people tell them the truth? Did they watch all the debate, some of it, or none of it?

And even if the poll is accurate and representative. So what? What "win" mean?
Why is that important.

All these polls are just media "Spin". So, Trump is smart to push "His Polls" - because its just a PR game aimed at morons who are effected by who "won" a debate.

rcocean said...

Now, the media are talking about a beauty queen who worked for Trump 20 years ago.

Not any of important issues raised at the DEBATE.


To distract attention from the important issues and questions about Hillary to "lets talk about Trump".

Notice the issues brought up by Holt in the debate. Trump's taxes, his comments about Obama's birth, and whether he did, or did not, support the Iraq war - 14 years ago.

rcocean said...

"does nothing except reinforce the idea that liberals are bullies and pricks".

An idea? I thought it was proven fact.