Tuesday, October 15, 2013

"Assessing the Government Shutdown: The Long View"

"The conventional wisdom right now is that the government shutdown ranks somewhere between a debacle and a catastrophe for Republicans, and their abject surrender is expected before too much longer.  I’m not so sure."

... [H]ave there been riots or even public demonstrations against the shutdown?  The political-financial crises in Europe and elsewhere in recent years have seen mass protests and street riots (Spain, Brazil, Greece, Bulgaria, etc).  Where is Occupy Wall Street when Obama needs them?  To the contrary, much more of the political energy appears to be on the Tea Party side right now.  Pretty clearly the shutdown terrifies liberals and journalists—and that’s about it."

... [T]o the extent that shutdown and “government dysfunction” in Washington causes the public to hold Washington in even greater disgust than usual, who does this hurt the most?  Democrats need the public to have some degree of confidence in government for their expansive schemes to succeed."

Power Line,

75 comments:

Eric the Fruit Bat said...

A better question is what's in the best interests of baseball.

Shouting Thomas said...

I'm babysitting my granddaughter this morning.

So far, I'm not seeing any negative effects vis-a-vis granddaughter babysitting from the perspective of the Fed shutdown.

This babysitting thing can be done without Federal assistance!

chickelit said...

Pretty clearly the shutdown terrifies liberals and journalists—and that’s about it.

Liberals and journals should remind us of how the French have squelched popular movements as a sort of prelude to what will happen here.

bagoh20 said...

There is great debate among the GOP about what true Conservatives should always do: surrender like French or like the Japanese.

bagoh20 said...

Is there a planet killing asteroid headed for Earth called "Default"?

AllenS said...

Yeah, but what about Michelle's garden? Huh? Have you people thought about that?

ricpic said...

The longer the shutdown lasts the weaker the great con that we NEED gubmint.

Hagar said...

We won't know until next November, but it is not necessarily the Republicans that will take the worst shellacking from the public as a result of the quarrelling in Wshington.

One thing is that the "pain" inflicted on the public has not been as much pain as a series of petty annoyances and insults, and more people than the lefty Democrats think might just be smart enough to figure out where this crap came from and why.

Another is if, as Instapundit says, "What cannot go on forever, won't," and the Republicans' dire predictions of what will happen if this spending on credit frenzy is not stopped, comes true between now and then.

Bill Clinton's and George W.'s stockmarket crashes occurred in the last year of their presidencies, but Obama's may not wait that long. I think the financial situation is very artificial and quite fragile. It won't take much to set off a panic, and there are lots of crises around the world ready to explode, or implode, as the case may be.

edutcher said...

What Hagar said, what ric said, and what the post says.

When you take into consideration the latest doom and gloom poll had government workers over-represented by 2 1/2 times their actual proportion in the population, it would seem things look worse for the Demos.

Joe Biden, America's Putin said...

"President Obama indignantly insists that GOP attempts to abolish or amend Obama­care are unseemly because it is “settled” law, having passed both houses of Congress, obtained his signature and passed muster with the Supreme Court.

Yes, settledness makes for a strong argument — except from a president whose administration has unilaterally changed Obama­care five times after its passage, including, most brazenly, a year-long suspension of the employer mandate.

Article I of the Constitution grants the legislative power entirely to Congress. Under what constitutional principle has Obama unilaterally amended the law? Yet when the House of Representatives undertakes a constitutionally correct, i.e., legislative, procedure for suspending the other mandate — the individual mandate — this is portrayed as some extra-constitutional sabotage of the rule of law. Why is tying that amendment to a generalized spending bill an outrage, while unilateral amendment by the executive (with a Valerie Jarrett blog item for spin) is perfectly fine?"

-Charles Krauthammer

Lem the artificially intelligent said...

"Yeah, but what about Michelle's garden? Huh? Have you people thought about that?"

Now it's a fox threatening the White House.

Disney should be very worried.

Lem the artificially intelligent said...

The longer the shutdown lasts the weaker the great con that we NEED gubmint.

The Con is Con-ventional wisdom, and Con-sensus.

8.“Keep the pressure on. Never let up.”

9.“The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.”

11.“If you push a negative hard enough, it will push through and become a positive.”

Alinsky would approve.

Lem the artificially intelligent said...

Fairness to the American people under ObamaCare.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

In regards to the ACA being settled law:

What a coincidence. So is the debt limit.

sakredkow said...

"There are a lot of opinions about what direction to go. There have been no decisions about what exactly we will do. We are going to continue to work with our members on both sides of the aisle to try and make sure there is no issue of default and to get our government reopened."

-John Boehner

This is totally on the GOP.

Paddy O said...

A lot depends on Obamacare implementation. If things don't get sorted out quickly, and there's no sign they will be, then Republicans will seem like the smart ones in this mess.

If Obamacare had been implemented smoothly and people were getting good reports, cost savings, and such, Republicans would be in danger. That didn't happen.

The more people learn about the situation, the less popular Obamacare is becoming.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

phx said...

This is totally on the GOP.

Do you have anything to support that, besides your own biases?

I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, ( although that's usually a good bet :), ) I'm just interested in what you believe supports your position.

Joe Biden, America's Putin said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Joe Biden, America's Putin said...

The GOP presents offer and after offer/ compromise after compromise (also known as - doing their job) and the king, er I mean president, keeps shooting it all down.

I guess Obama is most special. Even though he is supposed to negotiate, he refuses. This whole mess on the hypocrite king.
I wonder if anyone on the left remembers Obama 2006?

sakredkow said...

Do you have anything to support that, besides your own biases?

No, it's just in the air from the sights I'm reading and the reporting of what the players and others are saying.

I absolutely could be proven wrong about that and this could somehow redound to the GOP's favor, or even somehow benefit the country. Right now, it just doesn't seem that way at all. Everyday it sees like the GOP is painted into a tighter and tighter corner.

But I'm open to alternative interpretations or scenarios. If I'm wrong I'll account for it. I don't see how this can be good for the country or the GOP though.

sakredkow said...

The polling hasn't gone good on this for the GOP either. And the House is less popular than the Taliban and a couple of at-large serial killers I think.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

phx-

Thanks for the clarification. When you said it was totally on the GOP, I thought you were saying it was totally their fault, not just that they would take the political hit.

Hagar said...

And you are getting your "ambience" from a press corps that is about as "popular" as Congress.

We have not even begun to see the court suits that are going to be filed about Obamacare and its associated regulations, side effects, and "unintended consequences" ad infinitum. There is not ever going to be anything "smooth" about this.

The Brits are still fighting like cats and dogs 65 years later over their NHS, which is a much simpler operation by factors of magnitude than what Harry Reid set up Obamacare to be.

bagoh20 said...

So then everyone should be happy:

The right wants to shut down much of government, and the left is cool with that as long as the GOP gets the blame.

The right wants Obamacare to fail, and the Dems are determined to make that happen sooner rather than later, and doing a bang up job of it too.

It doesn't happen often that everyone is on the same page like this. Hallelujah!

sakredkow said...

thought you were saying it was totally their fault, not just that they would take the political hit.

Oh, I think they will definitely take a political hit, and it's 75-80% their fault. Having already lost the battle to defund Obamacare if they persist in their efforts to pass a bill that can't get by the Senate and we default as a result, then it will be 100% the GOP to blame, IMO.

It won't be long before we see for sure.

Aridog said...

Phx ... which do you think is the party of "No" now? The one proposing alternatives or the ones saying no to everything, demanding 100% acquiescence, no matter what.

BTW...that effort to defund Obamacare was 101% fraud, everything in Obamacare happening now was obligated prior to 01 Oct. If this wasn't the case, upon shutdown, no further obligations could be made and Obamacare would in fact shut down.

Never mind that you cannot "defund" jack diddly squat with a temporary measure that itself expires 15 Dec or before.

The scariest part of all this crap is the simple fact we have representatives and executive administrators who do not grasp elementary government finance ... especially Jacob Lew. Yee f'ing gawd....sob.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

...if they persist in their efforts to pass a bill that can't get by the Senate and we default as a result...

What if the Democrats in the Senate persist in their efforts to pass a bill that can't get by the House and we default as a result...

Any symmetry there?

Aridog said...

About that "fraud" effort to defund the PPACA...it was the ONLY cooperative Kabuki Theater so far this year...the GOP knew it was pointless to propose and the DEMS knew it was meaningless and would have no effect and needed no opposition,...however BOTH parties played it like a whore's skirt for the publicity.

sakredkow said...

The one proposing alternatives or the ones saying no to everything, demanding 100% acquiescence, no matter what.

They can't even pass their own bill.

Aridog said...

Phx...you mean the House or the Senate? Both are making fools of themselves as we speak.

Ignorance is Bliss said...

phx said...

They can't even pass their own bill.

They have passed a number of bills. If they can't pass a particular bill then that bill is asking for more compromise than some are willing to accept.

The fact that they don't all agree is not some sort of failure on the part of the Republicans. Even if that disagreement sometimes happens in public.

Hagar said...

The Federal Reserve has kept the stockmarket happy by "creating" more and more money and dumping it into the banking system. I would think this string has been stretched about as far as it can go and soon, quite soon, interest rates are going to go up, perhaps to 1984 rates, or we will have run-away inflation.
The results of either will not be pretty for the Democrats.

sakredkow said...

What if the Democrats in the Senate persist in their efforts to pass a bill that can't get by the House and we default as a result...

Any symmetry there?


Maybe we should let the Senate and House Republicans explain it to us.

sakredkow said...

The fact that they don't all agree is not some sort of failure on the part of the Republicans. Even if that disagreement sometimes happens in public.

With all due respect, I understand this spin but under the circumstances I don't think it's going to sell very well. Again, I admit I could be wrong, but I think you will end up having Republicans blaming Republicans in unforgiving terms, and if that happens then the House Repubs are the ones who will take the lions' share of the blame. Nobody will be saying "It's just a friendly internal disagreement that caused us to default."

Ignorance is Bliss said...

Maybe we should, but you didn't before assigning the GOP 100% of the blame for that scenario.

sakredkow said...

What if the Democrats in the Senate persist in their efforts to pass a bill

I understood that to be a bipartisan bill, not a Democrat bill.

sakredkow said...

If the House won't pass a bipartisan Senate bill, and they can't a pass a bill of their own, and we default, then yeah, Repubs are taking 100% of the blame in my opinion.

sakredkow said...

Maybe not 100%. There's still the argument "Obama should have caved to keep us from defaulting."

I don't think that's going to mitigate the way people will feel about the GOP too much though. Some maybe, but not a lot.

sakredkow said...

Personally under that scenario I would probably just stop caring or voting.

Ignorance is Bliss said...


Personally under that scenario I would probably just stop... voting.

Maybe there is hope for the country after all.

*ducks*

Michael Haz said...

The difference between this government "shutdown" and the government shutdowns in European countries is this:

In Europe, the citizens (at least some of them) riot to shut down government. In America, the so-called shutdown is caused by the executive and legislative branches not getting along with each other.

Our shutdown is only optics - it causes no real pain. European shutdowns are effective in shutting down government or commerce, often both, until an aggrieved group of citizens gets what it wants. That's a big difference.

American government shutdowns are never crisis-inducing. If they were, we'd face collapse on every federal holiday. I didn't get out much yesterday, but I don't recall that the Columbus Day government shutdown brought America to its knees.

Shorter version: American government shutdown are largely meaningless. They are only a negotiating tool between the executive and legislative branches.

Carry on as though all is normal - because it is.

Mitch H. said...

The country so thoroughly deserves a scourging, but some citizens - people like phx in particular - ought especially to feel the lash. Maybe a nice plague, something with boils and bits falling off. So, you know, they can go screaming to the insurance agents, only to be told "no hiding place".

Mitch H. said...

in short: DOOM.

Birches said...

I'm not even sure default is as big of a deal (from a conservative/ libertarian perspective) as people are making it out to be. It's unknown territory. As far as I can make out, if the rest of the world decides its not that big of a deal (because there's no other option for a standard currency) then the consequences are minimal.

Read the whole thing, but here's a juicy bit: No, it will not be a catastrophe. The U.S. is one of the few countries in the world and in history that has NOT defaulted on its debt; consequently we suffer the consequences of the curse of a reserve currency. The great housing-mortgage market bubble, 1997-2006, was fueled by a massive inflow of foreign investment funds. This is the other side of our deficit on trade account which looks like a sweet deal in which foreigners send us more goods and services value than we send them. But it has negative consequences and cannot be sustained indefinitely."

By Smith's take, making the United States less attractive as a destination for foreign investment might spare us future bubbles, and so have an upside.


REASON MAGAZINE

Ignorance is Bliss said...

phx said...

I understood that to be a bipartisan bill, not a Democrat bill.

If a truly bipartisan bill passes the Senate then I agree that changes the optics in favor of the Democrats.

sakredkow said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sakredkow said...

The country so thoroughly deserves a scourging, but some citizens - people like phx in particular -

Mmhm. It's my fault.

sakredkow said...

You might think I'm the one who deserves it, but I think it's going to be the American people who pay the price and the Tea Party is going to answer for it.

Revenant said...

Again, I admit I could be wrong, but I think you will end up having Republicans blaming Republicans in unforgiving terms, and if that happens then the House Repubs are the ones who will take the lions' share of the blame.

Blaming them for what, though? There seems to be an assumption that Republicans will be punished by voters, but I don't see much reason to believe that. House and Senate races aren't won by national popular vote; what matters is how the people in the individual states and districts feel.

When you filter out the blue states and blue districts what do the numbers look like? I haven't seen that kind of breakdown.

sakredkow said...

Shorter version: American government shutdown are largely meaningless. They are only a negotiating tool between the executive and legislative branches.

Carry on as though all is normal - because it is.


I hope so but so far it doesn't seem like the far right has been right about any thing so far having to do with this.

sakredkow said...

There seems to be an assumption that Republicans will be punished by voters, but I don't see much reason to believe that.

That's an interesting question and I've already admitted I'm going on sheer speculation - could turn out completely different, maybe it will be a real boon to the right.

But I think it's possible that they'll be punished by the fellow Republicans better than anyone else can. Leadership will freeze them out, so the districts are punished until they send back a reasonable Republican.

sakredkow said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Trooper York said...

Republicans blaming Republicans is not a bad thing if it upsets the applecart and gets the beltway establishment Republicans out of the leadership and brings in new blood.

They fail to realize that the Tea Party Republicans are the ones in the safe districts not the Rhinos. The disapproval of Karl Rove, Bill Kristol, the wheelchair guy on Fox and the Speaker doesn't mean jack shit anymore.

We will only have failed if the likes of Chris Christie or Jeb Bush are our nominee.

Sarah Palin just visited Iowa.

I'm Full of Soup said...

It annoys me that the "federal" govt shutdown is referred to as the govt shutdown. That, of course, is intentional misdirection by the MSM and librul pols. They neglect tthe fact that the state and local govts are still operating and they are no small potatoes.

Aridog said...

Questions:

1. When does/did the United State hit its legislated debt ceiling?

2. How many months have gone by since that date?

Gotta love the Kabuki Theater, and just must love it when your politicians, Democrat, Republican, or other, look you square in the eye and LIE their asses off. Yep, it's great!

AllenS said...

There isn't a lick of difference between Harry Reid and John McCain. Both are just as responsible for this continuing deficit spending. They do not give a fuck.

Aridog said...

I gotta admit, the debt ceiling stand off is all the Republican's fault. No body else is refusing to negotiate....

Oh, wait...

Aridog said...

Answers:

1. 31 Dec 2012

2. 9 and 1/2 months

Aridog said...

AJ Lynch said...

It annoys me that the "federal" govt shutdown is referred to as the govt shutdown.

Also rather annoying that the federal government shuts down but still collects taxes.

Of course, it must do that because the actual shutdown is less than 17% of the whole.

Michael Haz said...

The federal government has not been shut down. It is a lie to say that it is, and the media is lying, lying, lying.

Quick: Is your local military recruitment office shut down? Or the IRS? or the FBI? Or the National Endowment for the Arts? Or the US Marshalls' offices? No, none of them, nor much of anything else, except a few national parks and tourist areas.

I repeat, it is a lie to say the federal government has been shut down, and we are being lied to.

Methadras said...

How many people here realize that the government isn't fully shut down? Not to mention that even the administration has admitted that they've initiated a lot of it to swing sentiment in their favor. Would they be above that? Oh heavens to betsy I hope not. /sarcasm

Revenant said...

But I think it's possible that they'll be punished by the fellow Republicans better than anyone else can. Leadership will freeze them out, so the districts are punished until they send back a reasonable Republican.

The Republican leadership hates the Tea Party movement and the small-government Republicans. If they were capable of freezing them out they already would have.

Trooper York said...

That is typical of phx and the liberal maninstream medias advice. The leadership should turn against and punish the grass roots of the party. The people who ring doorbells and make phone calls. The little people.

Off with their heads!

Trooper York said...

The sooner the Speaker and the rest of the Beltway leadership walk the plank the better off the ship of state will be.

Trooper York said...

It's time for a real populist campaign.

Because to coin a phrase as far as Washington politicians are concerned there is not a dime's worth of difference between them.

Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...

I think Republican electoral prospects are good, assuming that the general sentiment of the country is as far to the right as a whole lot of folks seem to believe it is.

chickelit said...

Rhythm and Balls said...
I think Republican electoral prospects are good, assuming that the general sentiment of the country is as far to the right as a whole lot of folks seem to believe it is.

What are you so worried about? If you're right, Obama will do something extra-Constitutional like sidestep Congress to avoid default. He will do this to avoid impeachment under the 14th Amendment. He will look like a hero and a "strong horse" --Lincolnesque if you will. All Republicans will be shamed out of office next Fall and you will finally have your wet-dream single party no credit limit America that you've always dreamed of. I hope I'm still around to give you an "I told you so" when they decide to come after your 401(k) which you once said you'd staunchly defend.

Alternatively, he could concede the exceedingly small amendments to the budget which House Republicans are holding out for and also look like a hero. Nothing would defang the "no-negotiate" label like negotiating and compromise. Postponing the individual mandate will probably help Dems in 2014 as well.

chickelit said...

What are the odds that Putin could suggest something last minute? Something to walk Obama back from the brink like with Syria.

Aridog said...

El Pollo Raylan said ...

Obama will do something extra-Constitutional like sidestep Congress to avoid default...

He already has done that back in January 2013...see my comment at 6:00 PM. The Debt Limit was reached on 31 Dec 2012 and the past 9 months plus has been bullshit politics and extra-constitutional .... aka "Extraoridnary" measures ...aka bullshit accounting.

As I said a lot of late...if anyone in Washington's lips are moving they are telling a lie. Period.

Trooper York said...

Here's a question. What makes you think Obama will step down as President if Ted Cruz or Rand Paul or even Hillary Clinton is elected President?

Do you really believe he will follow the law?

chickelit said...

Do you really believe he will follow the law?

If he didn't step down after 2 terms wouldn't Holder be beholden to arrest him?

Aridog said...

Trooper York said...

Here's a question. What makes you think Obama will step down as President if Ted Cruz or Rand Paul or even Hillary Clinton is elected President?

Do you really believe he will follow the law?


No, I do not think he will follow the law. I've said that before. I would be delighted to be wrong.

chickelit said...

FACE
PALM
and
PARRY
ON

Aridog said...

Admittedly, Obama and the party would need a crisis of good proportions to rationalize a move for a 3rd term in perpetuity. They seem quite proficient at this theatric effect.

We are perpetually in search of a budget, but haven't found one for 4+ years now....setting up crisis upon crisis in acquiring CR's. We passed our debt limit in January 2013, and at that time Obama flat out said "no negotiation," but only now are debating it earnestly? Hours from a chimera deadline that we actually passed 9 moths ago? Theatrics.

Holder is more notable for what he has not enforced than what he has done. Who or what would force him to act against his leader?

I get the impression a majority of Americans do not realize how close they are to a system that can only be changed by a coup.

Trooper York said...

Why were the Generals and Admirals who handle our nuclear weapons just fired? What part of Eric Holder's record indicates that he will follow the Law? What makes you think Obama will follow even the rulings of the Supreme Court when you see how he tries to circumvent them all the time?

How can we be sure that he will step down when his term is over?