Saturday, June 18, 2016

Déjà vu all over again.



Now is the time in which all good Republicans put on long faces and pretend to be upset that Donald Trump is behind in the very early polls:
Just a few weeks ago, Trump supporters were upbeat because he was within just a few points of Hillary Clinton. This was a false dawn. What they didn’t take into account is that she was still in a pitched battle with Bernie Sanders, which meant the Democratic support she can count on in the fall was suppressed. Trump, having effectively won the nomination, was consolidating Republican support. Once Clinton effectively secured the nomination, which she has now done, the gap was bound to increase. The fact that Trump was still losing to Clinton when he had that advantage should actually have been a warning sign.

What should be particularly worrisome for those rooting for Trump is that things have gotten markedly worse. Negative views of Trump have increased 10 points in the last month. That is because he is acting just as he has acted all year. The hope that he’ll flip the switch and become more “presidential,” more unifying, and less repulsive just isn’t happening. The Trump attacks on Judge Curiel and his heritage, arguing that because Curiel was a “Mexican” (he is not) he had an “inherent conflict of interest” and was, therefore, unable to render a fair judgment–along with Trump dabbling in more crazy conspiracy theories (Vince Foster was murdered!) and now suggesting that the president is either connected to/sympathetic with Islamic terrorists–are all simply the latest additions to the same script.

Republicans now have to struggle with the realization of what they have done, the nature of the man their party has nominated, and the coming political catastrophe. It is a very painful time for the party of Lincoln.



On no! A single Bloomberg poll has Trump five points closer to Hillary than Bush was to Dukakis more than a month later in 1988! What a coming catastrophe! Dukakis Lead Widens, According to New Poll Published: July 26, 1988 In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll. This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that. Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. First they said he couldn't win the nomination. Now they say he can't win the election. Just watch and learn, grasshoppers. Watch and learn.

116 comments:

edutcher said...

Exactly.

In real terms, Trump is down 3 or 4 (so we're talking MOE). The NeverTrumpers have been pushing the Judge Curiel thing as an excuse. More people know who their Congressman is than this judge is.

You look at the numbers - and you don't have to go to pro-Trump sites, American Thinker, a Libertarian blog, and the London Daily Mail have noted the skew in the network polls - and he's doing pretty well.

After all, Reagan was still down 8 two weeks before the '80 election.

edutcher said...

A PS.

An interview with Trump from The Advocate in '00 when he was considering running on the Reform ticket.

Social conservatives may get itchy, but it does present him as a more tolerant guy than your average Lefty. He's asked about homosexuals in his possible Administration and an amendment to the Civil Rights Act concerning homosexuals.

YMMV

AprilApple said...

Someone who is so amazingly sweepingly popular should be leading a corrupt hack.

Right?

not much lead going on.

Next - take into consideration that Bernie is about to get behind her to help her further consolidate the D support. D's are much more loyal to their brand than R's. R's are burn it down (or - hand it to the D's... that will show you!)

AprilApple said...

Comparing Reagan - the great communicator - to Trump - the bumbling dick-stepper orator gift giver to the D, is laughable.

AprilApple said...

To deny that Trump's judge comments didn't hurt him - or to call it #neverturmper nonsense. - whole lotta delusion and denial going on.

AprilApple said...

How did a nevertrumper manage to stick his arm up trump's butt and talk out his mouth? I tells ya those nasty neverturmpers, i'd not pootit pastim.'

Patrick said...

The problem for Trump if that his base will not grow by very much, beyond his plurality of the Republican primary voters. He's very nearly maxed out his support, beyond a few more that really really hate HRC.

Thanks Jeb!

AprilApple said...

Patrick -that's right. Trump has a responsibility to go big tent now. Instead, he's going fire hose.

edutcher said...

AprilApple said...

Someone who is so amazingly sweepingly popular should be leading a corrupt hack.

Not if the public hasn't given the election a thought yet. Bucketmouth was an incompetent fool and everybody knew it by the summer of '80, but Reagan was still in trouble.

Instead of shooting off your mouth, try learning how politics works in this country.

Oh, that's right. Trolls don't have to know anything. They just parrot the talking points.

To deny that Trump's judge comments didn't hurt him - or to call it #neverturmper nonsense. - whole lotta delusion and denial going on.

More like a whole lotta wishful thinking. And it is Nevertrumper nonsense, especially since it was the NeverTrumpers doing most of the squawking.

That's Beltway stuff and most people are not looking.

Comparing Reagan - the great communicator - to Trump - the bumbling dick-stepper orator gift giver to the D, is laughable.

"I've just signed a law outlawing Russia. The bombing begins in 5 minutes".

How did a nevertrumper manage to stick his arm up trump's butt and talk out his mouth?

Same way he does it with yours.

Patrick said...

The problem for Trump if that his base will not grow by very much, beyond his plurality of the Republican primary voters. He's very nearly maxed out his support, beyond a few more that really really hate HRC

Then how come all those Reagan Democrats supporting him?

How come 26% support among blacks?

We heard this all through the primaries when the One True Ted was reduced to poaching delegates.

Trooper York said...

Wow April what a frenzy. What a bunch of posts to discredit a simple point. That polls this early before the conventions and the debates and the campaign don't mean much either way. You want to surrender. Or more correctly you want to put a corporate Republican in like Walker or Ryan or some other surrender first douche.

I saw Ryan on O'Rielly explaining that they couldn't pass Katie's Law as a stand alone bill because the Senate wouldn't pass it or the President won't sign it. He is a coward and an appeaser just like most of the so called conservatives.

If Paul Ryan had been at the Alamo he would have surrendered. I mean he wouldn't want to upset the Mexicans.

Lem said...

Every Republican that's ever won has been behind in the early going.

I haven't looked that up, but it sounds right.

Trooper York said...

It is wishful thinking and pure hatred from the NeverTrumpers and liberal media to say that there is no way for Trump to win. That he has to change and accept what they want. To be politically correct. To kowtow to the media and Democrat agenda. That there is no way to win.

Look I hate to be blunt. But you know what happened. A Muslim who was protected by affirmative action and political correctness went to soft liberal target and shot up a bunch of liberals. You know where you will never see a terrorist attack. At a gun show. Why don't some of our great conservative leaders talk about that?

Trooper York said...

Let me ask you something. Isn't Hillary just as bad a candidate as Dukakis? Or worse. Out of touch with normal Americans of all types.

Now Trump is no Reagan but he is not afraid to take shots at her. Shots that will hurt. Shots that people will hear directly unfiltered by the media. If there are debates of course. I am betting that she will refuse to debate.

I think the media will force her into some debates. They don't want to lose the money that it would generate. With Trump they know it will be a ratings bonanza.

It's the rice bowl stupid.

AprilApple said...

ed-ache - You're the one doing the parroting. Do you have a relevant or original thought? Something useful to sell that vibes with reality? NO. Trump is not Ronald Reagan. It is an insult to say so.

AprilApple said...

Trooper- You and I have common ground when it comes to Paul Ryan. He is a yuge disappointment.

edutcher said...

I see April opens the "big tent". I've watched Republican conventions on TV from '56 on (only missed '60 - we were away) and that line has always been used. By Dole, McCain, Nixon, anybody you can mention.

Nixon succeeded with his Southern Strategy that broke the Solid South, but nobody ever called him "Presidential". Reagan succeeded with the hardhats, the Reagan Democrats, but the NeverTrumpers of his day thought he was a nut and nobody called him "Presidential".

Trump is bringing in blacks, union guys, women, and kids. His tent may turn out to be bigger than anyone's since Eisenhower.

Trooper York said...

It is wishful thinking and pure hatred from the NeverTrumpers and liberal media to say that there is no way for Trump to win.

Actually, the number of people who say Trump can win includes quite a few NeverTrumpers.

Even Dan Blather.

Lem said...

Every Republican that's ever won has been behind in the early going.

I haven't looked that up, but it sounds right.


That's very true.

With the media fronting for the Demos, you expect it. Actually, McCain was doing pretty well in '08 until the market crash.

Hillary's gotten a bit of a bounce out of this "first woman" thing, but only NeverTrumpers ignore the skew. Homosexuals seem to be siding with Trump in the aftermath of Orlando and that Advocate article I linked says he may have more support there than people may want to believe.

Never forget DOMA was an Ozark scam and highly unconstitutional.

AprilApple said...

I doubt Ronald Reagan (if he were alive today) would ever be caught dead saying - out loud - "I think Hillary is a good person." Like Trump did. Save the "it's just business" excuse. Heard it. No sale.

ed-ache voter drive: - we will hate our way to a win! Fire. Hose.

AprilApple said...

I thought Trump was different. He's not a real Republican and he's facing a crook. He should be ahead by 10 points. Nov is not that far off.

Trooper York said...

April lets be real for a minute. Will you accept that it is too early to put your faith in polls? That we have not had the conventions? Not heard from the FBI about the email scandal? Not had a debate or the controversy because Hillary will refuse to debate? That in prior years there have been poll deficits just as bad or almost as bad for the Republican Candidates? Do you think that it is productive to do everything in your power to damage or destroy the man who is going to be the Republican Candidate? Do want to surrender before a shot has been fired? Is that your plan? Is your hatred of Trump so deep and overwhelming that you can not stop for a minute to make some reasonable distinctions?

Trooper York said...

April by doing what you do you are Paul Ryan. You are surrendering before the battle begins.

Sometimes you have to fight with a flawed army. With a candidate who isn't perfect by any means. When General Washington was at Valley Forge he didn't have a perfect spiffy Army. They were called a "rabble in arms." All the best people looked down on them. Scoffed. Said they were charlatans. Selling something that was a con. Those people were called Loyalists. Loyal to the old order. They refused to fight.

Think about it.

AprilApple said...

If the FBI recommends an incitement - that will help Trump. He needs that, bad. We all do.

AJ Lynch said...

You guys should have a cage match fight tournament.

April vs Ed and Trooper vs. Chuck from TOP and the winners meet in the title bout.

AprilApple said...

Again - I'm not destroying Trump. I'm sick of being hopeful for nothing. YOU give me some hope and tell me he's gonna win. All we have are polls. Polls show over and over and over and over that Trump's negatives are higher than the crook.

and somehow I am destroying Trump for pointing it out. You give me too much credit.

Trooper York said...

You know who scoffs at George Washington and his rabble in arms? At Travis and Crockett and Bowie at the Alamo? At General McAuliffe at the Battle of the Bulge?

Obama. Liberals. The mainstream media. The conservative intelligentsia. They all think that patriotic Americans should dry up and float away. That their communities where they cling to their guns and their religion should be destroyed. The unregulated immigration is what we need. That the second amendment must be repealed. That free trade is more important that honest jobs for American citizens.

They might play lip service to Patriotism. Especially as we approach the Fourth of July. Pretend that they love this country. But they do not. They are globalists. They give the rights of American citizens to every other person in the world. Anyone before native born Americans. That is who they are.

Who are you? Who do you want to be?

AprilApple said...

FU autocorrect. *indictment*

Trooper York said...

I am not giving you too much credit. Or maybe I am. I want to credit you with being reasonable. That you can agree that it is too early to surrender. There are many reason to be optimistic. The fact that most people are not as politically tuned in as we are. That they will tune in after Labor Day. That Trump will be able to reach a lot of people. Because what he is saying is inherently reasonable. The media will try to put up a smokescreen. He has to talk over and around them. The way Reagan did. Yes Trump is no Reagan. But he is a pretty good salesman. You see that as a reason to repudiate him. I see that as our only hope. Someone who can talk past the referee who has his thumb on the scale.

edutcher said...

AprilApple said...

I thought Trump was different. He's not a real Republican and he's facing a crook. He should be ahead by 10 points. Nov is not that far off.

No, that's what you've been saying; you and nobody else. Nice try.

All your FUD is intended to demoralize the Trump supporters because of some phony poll numbers. You're doing what any good little troll does. You were a troll for the One True Ted and now you're trolling for Cacklepants. Didn't work then, won't work now.

And November is a long 4 months off.

And, if you want to harp on the thing of the negatives, they show he'll win.

(bet she hates that one)

Trooper York said...

AJ I would not read or participate in that other place for a million dollars. I assume other people have gone back there based on some emails I have received. That is of course their choice.

I want to say that I really respect April for staying here and fighting for her beliefs. I just wish she would turn that spirit against Hillary. That is what I am trying to get her to do.

AprilApple said...

"A long 4 months" = delusion.

AprilApple said...

Geeez I feel like I've killed it with boredom with my Hillary hate. Aint' nobody hate Hillary more than me. It's a female intuition thing. She's pure evil.

edutcher said...

Sorry, reality.

Nobody will pay any attention until the conventions are over and Labor Day is history.

If you knew anything about American politics, you'd be aware of that and know how ridiculous it makes you sound.

If the FBI recommends an incitement

The G-men can only ask for a presentment to a grand jury based on the evidence. If the evidence indicates a trial is warranted, the grand jury hands down an indictment.

At that point, I expect Hillary's tumor or goiter or stroke or alcoholism to act up and she'll diplomatically have to plead health reasons and drop out.

AJ Lynch said...

You guys should have a cage match fight tournament

Under any other circumstances, I wouldn't care what April said. Ritmo and I have our little go-rounds and it just bounces off me.

But I have a rule about never letting Lefty lies go unchallenged and, for what ever reason, she sits here and barfs them up by the dozen.

She's trolling for somebody and I just want people to know the facts are not on her side.

AprilApple said...

shorter ed- It's good to be behind.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

It is way too early for panicky bullshit.

I am no fan of the Donald, but I despise Witch Hillary.

If the election were today, I suspect she would win by about five points (that is a guess). It would not be a blow out. But she is starting to go down in the polls after Orlando (slowly, but it is happening). It is a long way till November and we also have two conventions and three debates between these two (possibly Gary Johnson in the mix).

So I would recommend paying attention but having a few stiff cocktails and chilling till at least past the conventions.

bagoh20 said...

April's anti-Hillary bonafides are beyond question. Assume she wants a conservative President, and her points are pretty easy to understand. The only reason to attack her for her arguments is if you simply care more about having Trump win that getting that conservative President.

It's Trump or Hillary now. Trump supporters should be concerned with making him understand that they are not simply in love with him, but are voting for some principles they believe he will respect, if that's even true. So far many seem capable of swallowing any violation of principle Trump commits. I've read that at least Sixty Grit may have found his limit. If more people sent Trump that message instead of unconditional love, we might end up with at least a pragmatic conservative and more votes for him. His unconditional fans are already in the bag. It's time to win the rest.

Trooper York said...

I don't think Sixty has announced he would not vote for Trump seriously. If I am wrong I will apologize. Like me he gets pissed and flys off the handle. I recognize that and respect it. Because that is exactly what I do all the time.

In the fullness of time I expect that he will vote for Trump. But unlike other people I will let him speak for himself.

There will be many times in the course of the campaign where Trump might say something that might ring your bell and set you off. In the end you have weight the totality of the choice.

Leland said...

I do think it is way too early to invest in polls. However, Trooper, using a poll after the 1988 DNC to compare wit today is off the mark as well. Every candidate gets a bump after the convention, even McCain and Romney. The article you quoted is correct about Trump getting a bump after securing his nomination and same with Hillary. After the bump, the rest is just extrapolation based on assumptions that never hold.

The real question is how much bias is still in the polls. Typically, polls have an adjustment value added to them based on historical polling. The argument is usually based on participation and demographics from previous elections. Thus Democrats will get a bias because Obama won in 2012. I suspect that's still in the polling, despite the fact that Democrat primary votes are down dramatically since 2008, and Republican primary votes are up in 2016.

In 2008, Democrats had 17 million more votes thus far. In 2016, it is just 400,000 more votes. Considering California itself generated 2 million more votes for Democrats (still contested) than Republicans (no longer a contest); I'd say Hillary is in trouble. Consider that Republicans outvoted Democrats in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Rabel said...

"The only reason to attack her for her arguments is if you simply care more about having Trump win that getting that conservative President."

That statement might have made sense 6 months ago.

Trooper York said...

Bags I respectfully ask what Trump could say or do that would get you and people like you to sign on wholeheartedly. I don't think there is anything he can do to make that happen.

I know what somebody like Paul Ryan or Kevin Williamson or Mitch McConnell need for them to stop the constant attempts to undermine his campaign. Trump would have to surrender to their open borders/free trade/politically correct coddling of Muslim terrorists. That is not going to happen. So he will never have their full support. Because if Trump wins with his issues that Republican Party is dead.

I don't say there can be no dissent. No mocking of Trumps occasional crazy ideas or unthoughtout positions that he might make in the millions of words that come spilling out of his mouth everyday. But you need to make a reasonable case.

Here is an example. Trump said that the Mexican judge who is handling his case is not being fair to him because of his political stand on immigration and the wall. Everybody and his mother jumped on him because of that. Well it is a perfectly reasonable statement. Yes his Mexican ethnicity is a factor. One factor that can be talked about. I was taken off five juries because I was a white conservative. One in a Mafia case because I am half Italian. My heritage and ethnicity was a prima face reason that they could assert that I could not be fair. It happens everyday. It seems that April buys into the fiction that this is a terrible error of some sort. That it is reason enough to take the nomination away from Trump. I have read some Senators quoted to that effect. So even in this simple reasonable case you can not convince the politically correct to even listen. They buy into the medias political correctness hook line and sinker. It seems that you and April do.

I take a different view. I think blunt crude language applied to a cause that will put Americans first will prevail in the long run. All Americans. Even ones that I don't sympathize or support too much. Because in the end that is one thing we have in common. I could be wrong. But I don't think spending every blog comment in attacking the guy who is going to be your standard bearer is a worthwhile endeavor. Because there is nothing he can do to change your mind except change to be something he is not.

edutcher said...

AprilApple said...

shorter ed- It's good to be behind.

Wrong, it's expected.

A lot of people think Hillary is the Smartest Woman in the World because, like April, they believe what the media tells them. They never heard of Benghazi or the email server because they've never heard about it.

Those are the people Trump has to reach. That he did so well in the primaries says he's made a good start. That he's low single digits behind her says the task is far from insurmountable.

Sixty Grit said...

I won't vote for Mrs. Clinton, but I realize that Trump won't do a damned thing he has said he would. There will never be a wall, not one illegal will be deported, nor will the tide of refuse from the mideast ever be turned back.

Even the destruction of a U.S. city with a million or more deaths won't change things. A majority of Americans hate this country, so it will end. I am resigned to that fact.

Trooper York said...

Leland I think the Bradley effect will be in force to a degree never seen before. Because now it is not even just the Media and the Democrats that are enforcing a politically correct dogma on this election. It is the Republican establishment and even the so called conservatives. So the social stigma of announcing you support Trump comes shooting in at you in every direction. Most people are not strong enough to stand up to that. They won't speak out. But in the privacy of the voting booth they will speak out. Not when a pollster asks a loaded question.

I think after Orlando there are many homosexual Americans who will vote for Trump. They just will never say it out loud. Anecdotally I have had several gay people tell me that in confidence in the last week. You see I am their outrageously bigoted conservative friend. The one they delight in tweaking and arguing with about issues. They know where I stand. They are thinking that maybe Trump has a point. Especially since social issues like homosexuality means jack shit to him.

Synova said...

"Republicans now have to struggle with the realization of what they have done,..."

This is why I'm beginning, slowly, to hope Trump wins, to feel that I'll certainly be voting for him and slowing beginning to move from "reluctantly" to "with a vengeance."

Yes, I think he's horrible.

But dear freaking petunias... what *Republicans* have done? There is certainly enough blame to go around but a very little of it is on the heads of Republicans. The "Party" wanted someone like Jeb. The Tea Party wanted someone like Cruz. The social/religious conservatives wanted someone like Dr. Carson. (Racists, every one of them.) The middle wanted Fiorina or Walker or somebody competent and unalarming. The libertarians liked Rand Paul but knew that was hopeless. And the populists liked Trump. We've got a process in place to winnow this down, so see who is acceptable to most, who has the majority of support, and who should be the candidate.

The media totally screwed that process to hell and gone by making every story about Trump and supporting every Democrat or opposition criticism of Republican candidates. Instead of helping potential voters get good information on the many choices, instead they ran columns scoffing at how laughable and ridiculous it was that the Republicans had 14 people who'd come forward as candidates. "Vetting" means "destroying" and hey, lets put Trump on television again, that gets good ratings and we can scoff at "Red America" and the types of things that concern the dumb hicks.

Early primaries had deliberate tampering by people who weren't Republicans, mostly to vote for Trump and screw up the process if the dumb*sses in their state had decided that "open" primaries were more "democratic". When Trump did unexpectedly well early on he got more air time. More outrage. More condemnations about everything wrong with "those people" who cared about the things he talked about.

If the "Republicans" did something wrong, for some value of the word "wrong", it was not picking the candidate ahead of time to present the voters with a single choice.

Like the Democrats did.

Except for Bernie Sanders who apparently didn't get the memo and told the Democrats to screw themselves and ran for President anyway.

Are we really supposed to believe that there are NO qualified Democrats in the whole nation who wanted to run for President? None? No up and coming hot-shots who wanted to build air-time and name recognition? Not a single Dem governor interested in the big chair?

While the media was scoffing and screwing with the Republicans "deep" assemblage of candidates, they were utterly silent on the Democrats shallow pathetic one. "Didn't get the memo" Sanders, who in any other national race would have been the crazy outlier, the Kucinich or Ron Paul or Jesse Jackson or Keyes... he almost managed to unseat her majesty. Some people think that if it were fair he would have done.

Synova said...

And Republicans now have to face what they've done?

Something to consider... both Trump and Sanders pulled HARD on populism, they both pulled at the same human condition and frustrations. I don't think that Trump has a single political principle of his own, not one. But he clearly understands "the little guy" and what makes him tick. If nothing else he knows how to tell people what they want to hear.

There are a lot of people who haven't been paying attention past the blaring headlines, the shouting about how horrible Trump is. Those people who have never watched a single debate from either party are likely to watch the main presidential debates between Trump and Hillary. Hillary does not debate well. She's learned not to screech, so that's in her favor, but she doesn't debate well. If Trump can present himself as even marginally presidential he could easily pull a lot of those people... and Sanders supporters too.

Trump has (apparently) done a few things lately that have conservatives upset... said "nice" things about single payer health care or gun control... he's going for Sanders voters. You know he is.

Trooper York said...

Sixty I respect your choice. It is quite possible that Trump will not do all of the things he is promising. If he did he would be unique in the history of the world. Paul Ryan has already said he would try to block him. That he would sue him. So Trump will be fighting both the Democrats, the media and the Republicans. I don't know if he can win. I don't know if he will cut a deal.

But here's the thing. He is the only chance for even a minimal course change. That is what I have been saying from the beginning. He is not a savior. Only idiots try to portray his fans as thinking that. They realize that he is flawed. But they say over and over again "At least he talks about it with political correctness....at least he is going to try."

With Trump we have a chance. A bare chance. A risky chance. A no guaranteed chance. With Hillary we have no chance at all.

rcocean said...

I've never seen more bias in the MSM or more pure unadulterated lying about a candidate.

The funny thing is: Trump is a moderate business friendly Republican.

Yet, he gets called Nazi, Hitler, Vulgarian, and Wacko because he wants to protect the country from Islamic terrorism, and enforce the immigration laws.

People need to start thinking about what Hillary would do as President and what that would mean. Because the Trump is the only one who can prevent it.

rcocean said...

Trump is now our Guy. Woulda coulda shoulda. Who cares.

The choice is simple Trump or Hillary. Get on the Trump train or look forward to 4 more years of Hillary and Bill. Oh, plus a SCOTUS dominated by Ginsburg, Kagan, and the "wise Latina" for the next 15 years.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

I sadly agree with Sixty. Not because Sixty said it, but because he is right.

The pendulum does eventually swing, be it from Hillary or Trump, and I loath Witch Hillary (I don't call her bitch because I like dogs more than that). I want her to lose, even if the country is going to hell. I know the left hates Trump and it would be fun (for a moment) to see their heads explode. Trump would be better than Hillary but not by much. Beyond that I doubt much good will come of it.

edutcher said...

Sixty Grit said...

I won't vote for Mrs. Clinton, but I realize that Trump won't do a damned thing he has said he would. There will never be a wall, not one illegal will be deported, nor will the tide of refuse from the mideast ever be turned back.

I think you're selling him short. He may not be the Second Coming of James Polk, but why go to all the trouble (he is 70, after all) and expense, if you're just going to sit there? I do think he wants to do something good for this country. I also think he'd like to leave a real legacy behind. The Reagan kind.

He may not do everything he says (he'll have to get a lot past Congress), but, if he just gets the economy moving, that would be worth the effort. Most of the Mideasters could be turned back with an Executive Order, same with a lot of the illegals - those are both done because Pissy controls the Executive branch. Put in a new guy and a lot of that ends.

I know you want to believe nothing can be done until the One True Conservative comes along that sees things exactly the way you do, but you could be waiting a long time for him.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

But I do not want my friend ed thinking I did not say something positive about the Donald: Having had plenty of blue collar experiences myself, there is some of truth to this (Trump of course was born in privilege, but in Queens, which is not on the social registry).

edutcher said...

Consider something about Trump's sons.

He made them work so they'd have some discipline, a work ethic, maybe a little humility, and some idea of what the working stiff's life is like.

One said he's the only billionaire's son who drives a bulldozer better than a golf cart.

I think a lot of people who figure they have this guy pegged haven't got a clue about him.

Trooper York said...

That is a great article Evi. That is pretty much how I feel about Trump and have felt about him since he began his campaign. The New York Speech is exactly what I was talking about. If Trump talks that way in a debate with Hillary he is going to change a ton of minds. At least those that are open to it. If they are being honest about it. There are many people who will never vote for Trump. Many of them are Republican office holders like Paul Ryan. But I think many normal Americans of all races, colors and sexual orientations will be willing to vote for him.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Great article Evi.

This is also what I like about Trump. He is the "git 'er done" type of American that has been revered in the past. Think outside of the box and get things accomplished. The kind of American thinking and "know how" that won the Second World War. We seem to have lost this knack in our current college precious snowflake millennial generation.

You can be born into privilege and be pampered and sheltered, become a Kennedy,or you can be born into privilege and have your parents introduce you to hard work and expose you to the people who make your business (real estate development and construction). Trump's father exposed him to "discipline, a work ethic, maybe a little humility, and some idea of what the working stiff's life is like" just like Trump has done with his sons.


Trooper York said...

Of course some people of limited intelligence and voracious prejudice can not get over the fact he comes from Queens. That at bottom is what motivates many commentators on TV for example. Because Trump is not out of the mainstream on many issues they believe in. He is most decidedly not a social conservative. He is not going after entitlements. He is not a racist despite the way he is being painted. He hires many more women in responsible and lucrative positions than any prior candidate for President. But still they viscerally hate him with a passion that is quite out of proportion for his actual positions.

Some Morons can't get over their hatred for New York and the people that live there. Specifically outer borough guys.They are not worthy. It is that simple.

Trooper York said...

For Sixty there is also the fact that he is not a guns guy. His sons are though. More importantly so is his son-in-law who will be one of the most important figures in his administration. They took him shooting but it does not come naturally to him. That is why he wanted to consult with his allies in the NRA. So he could put together a rational policy. He was checking with the experts. Just like he did with the ice for the skating rink as described in the article Evi linked to. No reason to panic. Lets hear what he comes up with. I think we will be happy with what he has to say.

Amartel said...

The media wish-casting is loathesome ... and totally par for the course. Expected. Status quo. Business as usual. Establishment gonna stab. Etc. etc. That being said, given current events, and the ever-increasing and increasingly obvious shambles left in the wake of the Magical Unicorn Administration, not to mention the manifest vileness and incompetence of the Hypocrite Party and it's Preferred Candidate, one would prefer not to be trailing at this point. We're a big ship and it will take us a while to turn around but we'd better start our turn soon.

Also, demanding fealty and ignoring thoughtful dissent is not a convincing or persuasive tactic. You sound like the GOPe when you do that.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Well, I do have to say if Trump decides that he is for a No Fly No Buy for guns....meaning people who are put on the no fly list are not able to purchase weapons....that will be the killer for me.

The no fly list is a joke. There are people who are not anything to do with terrorism. Duplicates. No rhyme or reason as to why you are on the list and once ON the list it is nearly impossible to get off. There is no accountability on the part of the petty bureaucrats who can maliciously put people onto the list.

I can CLEARLY see a list propogated with NRA members, people who have interests in patriotic groups, Tea Party and anyone who can be considered an "enemy of the administration". Just look at what the IRS has been up to. Manipulating data, delaying and in effect squashing any dissent or opposition to the Obama Regime.

There is too much temptation to use the list as a political club. NOT TO MENTION that it violates the 4th amendment which guarantees Due Process. Your rights are taken away without any evidence or any recourse.

If Trump goes along with this...he is dead meat. That isn't a threat of any kind, in case Homeland Security or the NSA or the multitudes of sneaky spies are listening here. It means that Trump will lose a huge part of his base. Including me and practically everyone that I know.

Be careful Trump. Choose wisely.

Sixty Grit said...

Thanks, DBQ, for articulating what I can't. If he does not clearly state that he supports Due Process then he is just another lying, anti-American New York liberal, but I repeat myself.

edutcher said...

It's astounding how people have jumped to conclusions on the whole no fly thing based on one tweet.

Trump just said he and the NRA were meeting on the subject. Probably what to do if it gets past the talking stage before November.

And that's it.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

I can CLEARLY see a list propogated with NRA members, people who have interests in patriotic groups, Tea Party and anyone who can be considered an "enemy of the administration"

If so, oopsy, why would the NRA go along with such a thing? If they're meeting with Trump on this, you'd expect an announcement if they were going to do something.

So far, I've heard nothin' from nobody. Granted, the media is trying to gin up as much discord as possible from this, but, without an announcement, sounds like they're going to let things lie.

YMMV

edutcher said...

PS propagated.

Trooper York said...

Hey I agree with both of youse Sixty and DBQ. I am confident that will not happen so I am not excited about it. Trump is not John McCain. He will not sign on to that. Wait and see.

His line is going to be "Terrorists kill Americans and Obama's response is to take the guns away from law abiding citizens."

This is the fabled thing that Trump could do to make me break with candidacy. You know the thing that Bags and April keep saying doesn't exist. Well this is one.

Trooper York said...

On the other hand there is no one thing that he can say or do that would make them or other #NeverTrumpers full throated supporters. I get it. He is too low rent for them. To much of a showman. Too much of a salesman.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

His line is going to be "Terrorists kill Americans and Obama's response is to take the guns away from law abiding citizens.

This is the ONLY correct response. The Second Amendment is not to be trifled with. There are plenty of people on both/all sides of the political divide who have guns, use guns for hunting, for protection. If Trump were to make even the slightest move toward curtailing not just the 2nd amendment but also the 4th, it will be all over for him. Dems, Independents, Repubs and now the LGBT community who clearly also see that they are on their own, the liberals will protect Muslims over "teh gays".

No one says Trump is going to do the No Fly No Buy thing. He won't if he is smart.

Choose wisely!!

Trooper York said...

I know April and her ilk like to peddle the idea that Trump is stupid but he is not that stupid. Watch and see.

AprilApple said...

What Bagoh said times a million.

Trooper York said...

Well but of course my dear.

AprilApple said...

Synova's 2:42 post is awesome.

AprilApple said...


"... But dear freaking petunias... what *Republicans* have done? There is certainly enough blame to go around but a very little of it is on the heads of Republicans. The "Party" wanted someone like Jeb. The Tea Party wanted someone like Cruz. The social/religious conservatives wanted someone like Dr. Carson. (Racists, every one of them.) The middle wanted Fiorina or Walker or somebody competent and unalarming. The libertarians liked Rand Paul but knew that was hopeless. And the populists liked Trump. We've got a process in place to winnow this down, so see who is acceptable to most, who has the majority of support, and who should be the candidate.

The media totally screwed that process to hell and gone by making every story about Trump and supporting every Democrat or opposition criticism of Republican candidates. Instead of helping potential voters get good information on the many choices, instead they ran columns scoffing at how laughable and ridiculous it was that the Republicans had 14 people who'd come forward as candidates. "Vetting" means "destroying" and hey, lets put Trump on television again, that gets good ratings and we can scoff at "Red America" and the types of things that concern the dumb hicks."


worth a repeat.

AprilApple said...

Cute, Troop.

AprilApple said...

and what Evi said @ 4:05. I concur.

Trooper York said...

Wait. So we need to blame the media for all the millions of people who voted for Trump. I mean it can't be because they support the things he is talking about. They must be boobs. Rubes. Dummies. Morons who cling to their guns and their religion. Who have communities that should be destroyed and die. Those voters. They were just bamboozled by a con man?

Nice.


AprilApple said...

Some great posts... still reading.. Amartel - bingo!!!

Also, demanding fealty and ignoring thoughtful dissent is not a convincing or persuasive tactic. You sound like the GOPe when you do that.

Trooper York said...

The low opinion that the Republican office holders and the establishment of both the Rhino's and the Conservatives have of their core voters has been well established. They are divorced from the vast majority of their voters. The party is in its death throes. They will not come back from this if Trump is not elected. If he is elected it will be a new party. A populist party. Or a new party will be born. Trump might not be the one.

But someone will come along.

AprilApple said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AprilApple said...

Trooper- this is all old news. Trump won - now it's time for him to figure it out.

Crying about the the GOPe over and over isn't worth a fart in the wind.

Trooper York said...

There is a difference between demanding fealty and asking why you only attack your candidate all the time 24/7. How about a level playing field. One attack on Hillary for every two on Trump?

Thoughtful dissent? Where did you see that? I saw a lot of "You can't call the judge prejudiced nonsense" and "Trump is a con man and a pyramid scheme salesman." That is thoughtful dissent? Or is that parroting of the liberal/media line?

I would be happy to see some "thoughtful dissent?" Show me what you got.

AprilApple said...

I can haz spelz

Troop - The media pimped him because they knew he'd be easy to kill later. Later is now.

Nothing new. Trump must over-come the huge disadvantage he has with a corrupt and mega-biased press.

AprilApple said...

I'm not attacking him - I want him to beat Hillary. I'm looking for some hope and change!

AprilApple said...

Troop - If you can't face the fact that Trump's own past words (all the tacky female garbage etc... as one example) won't be used to attack him - you're deluded. It won't be pretty and Trump could lose. Do you not agree that Trump could lose this thing?

AprilApple said...

Acting all butt hurt and thin skinned for the man with thin skin is not helping. Is that more clear?

Trooper York said...

It is not crying about the GOPe when they are continually sabotaging the designated nominee. When Paul Ryan repudiates Trumps main policy. Tells us that he is going to sue him if he tries. It is not crying when Lindsey Graham and some other Senators say that Trump is not qualified to be President. Trump did win. Tell it to those guys. Maybe they should mute their outrage at his win a little so he can win the Presidency.

Once again where is the thoughtful dissent.

Here is one area. Trump has said there should be a temporary halt in immigration from problem countries where terrorists originate. Ryan and the rest call that racist and will resist with every fiber in their body to facilitate unrestricted massive immigration. Where is the "thoughtful dissent" in that? Where is their explanation as to why that is preferable to a temporary halt to see who is coming into our country? Why is their answer "Racist, Racist Neener Neener?"

Trooper York said...

Of course I want him to win. I just don't think you or Paul Ryan or Lindsey Graham or any of the other talking heads who go on TV want him to win.

Sure Trump said some stupid stuff. Or stuff that the politically correct say is stupid but is just a fact.

Hillary has said a lot of terrible stuff. Have you ever talked about that? For example Hillary said the Australian idea of the government confiscating firearms directly is a pretty good model for the USA. Why isn't that something that is on the list of things to talk about instead of what Trump said on Howard Stern twenty years ago?

Trooper York said...

You have to respond to lies and attacks. Was it a good idea to ban the Washington Post because of their lies. Because of their headline lying about what he said? Is that acting butt hurt?
Should you just take it like W and Mitt did when they lied about him? I thought you wanted someone who would fight back? Or was that bullshit?

AprilApple said...

more clear? clearer.

I'm sick -that's myu excuse.

AprilApple said...

gunna go. have a nice evening.

edutcher said...

AprilApple said...

I'm not attacking him - I want him to beat Hillary

No, she doesn't, else she'd have something constructive to say.


Troop - If you can't face the fact that Trump's own past words (all the tacky female garbage etc... as one example) won't be used to attack him - you're deluded.

Um, they tried it in the primaries, they tried it the last month or so.

Acting all butt hurt and thin skinned for the man with thin skin is not helping.

The only one acting that way is her because the One True Ted lost and Hillary needs an 8 point skew to make her look even a little competitive.

Hasn't worked at all. Much like her trollery.

AprilApple said...

ed- you are the true troll. You bore everyone to death. JSYK

AprilApple said...

Dear Troop and Lem,

You should consider making this a post.
Sincerely,
the troll.


Immigration, World Poverty and Gumballs

AprilApple said...

ed-ache Your obsession with Ted Cruz, a guy who knows how to speak in real grown-up sentences, is rather startling. I suggest it's based on jealousy.

AprilApple said...

shorter ed ache - the polls are wrong unless Trump is ahead - then they are good.

AprilApple said...

now I'm leaving. REally. bye.

edutcher said...

AprilApple said...

ed- you are the true troll. You bore everyone to death. JSYK

That's why you have to lie to try to beat me. People listen to what I say.

ed-ache Your obsession with Ted Cruz, a guy who knows how to speak in real grown-up sentences, is rather startling. I suggest it's based on jealousy.

Keep telling yourself that. He lost, remember? Even when he cheated, he still lost.

shorter ed ache - the polls are wrong unless Trump is ahead - then they are good.

April never mastered arithmetic, so she doesn't understand if you add something that doesn't exist, the answer is wrong. She's a perfect Democrat.

now I'm leaving. REally. bye.

Don't let the door hitya... And stay out of the Stolichnaya.

bagoh20 said...

Again: it is Trump or Clinton. What Republicans or Obama did in the past will mean little soon. All that will matter is which of those two win and what they think they represent once they are there. There is no hope in making Hillary into a smaller government Constitution respecting leader. Trump at least has that potential to some degree, but only if the public and specifically his supporters shows him that's what it expects from him, and that it's how he gets the love, the respect, the win, and the glory he craves. He can be at least as destructive as Clinton if we don't make it clear to him that he either respects our values or loses. If he wins and believes he can get his glory by handing out government largess like he has with stockowners money on occasion, or that he will be loved for protecting us from ourselves, then we will be worse off than with Hillary who will at least transfer the blame to the left when that worn out crap collapses.

Trump has switched positions often and quickly when he sees that it's costing him support. I don't expect him to really internalize the principles, but if we make him see it as his path to victory, he will do whatever it takes. He could be made into a great reformer, but it's not gonna be his idea. Tell him what would be really great for this nation, not just what would make you feel good for a week.

bagoh20 said...

Just as an example, Trump turned around his position on guns in under 24 hours when he saw what his anti-NRA instinct was doing to support. He does not know what's right or important, but he is more than willing to learn if it means winning. He's not my man, but he could be my douche bag. You Trumpers need to educate the Donald. He'll listen to you.

edutcher said...

bag, I contend that Trump didn't turn around his position because he never made the switch in the first place.

If he had, the NRA would have said something (I says again and I repeats, I cannot believe how many people were willing to jump to an unwarranted conclusion on so little evidence because he's a New Yorker; you think people from the Midwest or the South are any more trustworthy?)

PS An interesting piece off DC Whispers (no idea what their affiliation) on the polls (which April will take great pains to ignore):

The Real Clear Politics polling average is what the Mainstream Media is now touting as evidence of the alleged Trump Slump. What these reports purposely neglect to inform readers is that polling data is already weeks old and almost none of it reflects the recent terrorist attack in Orlando, Florida.

the media focused on Mrs. Clinton’s “historic” clinching of the Democrat nomination, resulting in what is commonly referred to as a “good-will bump” in the political polling industry. Such bumps are often minor, and not sustainable. Given Mrs. Clinton’s own high negative ratings, this unsustainable trend will most likely be the case for her as well, and her campaign knows it.

And within that same poll, which showed Hillary beating Trump, a third of Independent voters indicated they would not vote for either candidate. That number will shrink significantly as November approaches, and based upon all previous polling data, most independents will break for Trump and not Clinton.

The fact is, given the amount of anti-Trump media focus (including from Fox News) and how little this same media is covering the myriad of Hillary Clinton scandals, the fact Donald Trump only trails her by single digits at this point is rather remarkable.

To give some historical perspective, at this point in the 1980 election, Jimmy Carter had a +7 advantage over Ronald Reagan. By November, Reagan won in a historic landslide. Using that previous big change election as an indicator, Donald Trump is actually outperforming Ronald Reagan at this point in the election cycle
.

bagoh20 said...

"Bags I respectfully ask what Trump could say or do that would get you and people like you to sign on wholeheartedly. I don't think there is anything he can do to make that happen."

I'm already signed on to vote for the Republican and that's now him, and if you read the history, I always was, because Hillary is guaranteed disaster, so the only thing I care about now is what I get from my forced vote for the "Republican". We need to get him to become the man who can win, and the man we won't regret electing. I'm convinced he has never known who that man is, or what he stands for, but I know he will do what it takes to be the winner, to be that man, period. He just needs to know that some things are mandatory, and lots of voters, both in his bus or considering it, will not swallow anything for him.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Well, just to hedge my bets on this up-coming election I bought another couple of bricks of ammo.

Maybe for the wall. Maybe not. But you can't have too many bricks in the wall

bagoh20 said...

Ed, the proof is in what Sixty and DBQ said above. You can pull any links you want, but even these diehards got pissed, because after seeing the squishiness of the man on key principles, in the past, they had no problem believing that he was soft on guns and due process. If people like them can feel that unsure about him on core principles, then imagine how the rest who are less committed think. He needs to be tough and clear on Constitutional protections for the people. Otherwise, he feeds right into the Democrats' main argument which works on a wide range of voters: he's dangerous, and dictatorial. That stink will wipeout his chances of breaking his ceiling, and he could easily kill it dead with the right rhetoric, consistently delivered, but I don't think he will do it unless people let him know how important it is.

edutcher said...

On no evidence.

The squishiness is in your mind. oopsy and Troop were quite clear it was a deal-breaker if there was acquiescence, but I still say, when did a statement come out that he or the NRA would back such a proposal?

You are making assumptions based only on your own bias.

AprilApple said...

ed- If you are indicative of a typical Trump voter- we are toast.

Ed for Hillary.

AprilApple said...

Bags- You can't just vote for Trump, you must let Trump into your heart, like poor ed did.
Orange-Obama!

AprilApple said...

Trump is trying hard to walk the line. He expects R's to vote for him, he needs enough D's to win. He might pull it off, or he might piss everyone off and lose big.

Methadras said...

I told you guys that these polls are intended to induce the propagandist effect of defeat. Please don't fall prey to them. I only say this because we literally have no choice in the matter anymore. it's either Trump or Hillary. I'm voting Trump, that's the bottom line. To have to endure seeing that cackling witch further fouling the oval office is to much to bear.

I'm going to say this right here and now. If she wins the presidency, it's game over for this country and most likely you will never see or hear from me again. There will be nothing to say at that point anymore.

chickelit said...

Looks like the PHX rally went well!

chickelit said...

Polls, shmolls. Way too early.

April is against Hillary. April is against Trump.

Who is April for?

Trooper York said...

Bags said: You can pull any links you want, but even these diehards got pissed, because after seeing the squishiness of the man on key principles, in the past, they had no problem believing that he was soft on guns and due process. If people like them can feel that unsure about him on core principles, then imagine how the rest who are less committed think.

Bags did you say that with the same level of disdain toward Mitt Romney? Who came up with the idea that became Obamacare. Who flipped flop on many issues from when he was Governor of Massachusetts and when he was a candidate in the Republican primary? Do you hold other candidates to the same exacting standard? Somehow I don't remember that being the case.

Or is this simply animus because he wants to build a wall and keep the illegal immigrants out?

Synova said...

Trump talking to the NRA about "no fly/no buy" doesn't bother me. I would *prefer* that politicians went and talked to the people with the most knowledge and interest in a subject. Just like it made sense to talk to health insurers about how their business functions.

Obama was all about not talking to the opposition or ever taking them seriously.

Trump can (and probably will) come back and say, hey, they had some good points and legitimate concerns, blah blah, continue to work together, blah blah... that is, if it ever comes up again.

AprilApple said...

The sweet sweet meteor of death.

Just end it already.

Synova said...

"Trump is trying hard to walk the line. He expects R's to vote for him, he needs enough D's to win. He might pull it off, or he might piss everyone off and lose big."

I think that this is probably right. I think it will make a big difference, as I said, if he can present himself as even marginally presidential in the debates he might sweep the thing. I definitely thing he's trying to pull in Sanders supporters and the general apolitical middle.

Everyone wants it to be over before it's over.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Ed, Donald's sons also got a lot of influence from their maternal grandfather. He took them hunting and was apparently a very stand up guy back in Ivanastan.

Trooper York said...

David Horowitz put it very wellin an article in Brietbart:
When Trump proposes fighting “radical Islam,” securing America’s borders, stopping unvetted immigration from Muslim terrorist states, surveilling mosques, and scrutinizing the families of terrorist actors, Republicans join Democrats in denouncing him, or take an uncomfortable distance or maintain a silence that leaves him to fend for himself.

The left is blaming Christians, Republicans, and guns for the Orlando slaughter. The president and Hillary are claiming that ISIS is on the run – a lie flatly contradicted by the CIA director himself. They want to disarm Americans. If Hillary is elected, borders will stay open, and protecting Muslims will take priority over fighting Islam’s holy war against us.

In other words, Democrat betrayers of America are on the attack, while Republican leaders who claim to be patriots are on the run. Where, to take one example, is Ted Cruz? He claims to be a patriot and care about the Constitution, but he is AWOL — sulking like Achilles in his tent over personal slights he can’t get past to fight for his country’s survival. The Republican leader of the Senate and his second-in-command have both announced they will not participate in the presidential election, while the leader of the House makes clear his extreme embarrassment over Trump’s proposals to establish immigration policies appropriate to a nation under siege. This is the sad state of the Republican forces in retreat in an election campaign that will decide the fate of our country.

edutcher said...

AprilApple said...

ed- If you are indicative of a typical Trump voter- we are toast.

Yeah, trolls can't succeed when the opposition has the facts.

Trump is trying hard to walk the line. He expects R's to vote for him, he needs enough D's to win. He might pull it off, or he might piss everyone off and lose big.

April's prayer. She was so hoping to be the next Sarah Flores. Or was it Amanda Carpenter?

The sweet sweet meteor of death.

Just end it already.


You can stop the lies any time.

chickelit said...

Polls, shmolls. Way too early.

Exactly. Wait until Labor Day.

Synova said...

Someone is not AWOL because the media doesn't put their face in front of you.

Which is the problem with our excuse of a media... we're dependent on a bunch of journalism school graduates to decide all of our important issues for us. Who we see. What we hear. How any of it is presented. Who we ought to vote for. What we ought to care about.

bagoh20 said...

"Or is this simply animus because he wants to build a wall and keep the illegal immigrants out?"

It's not important what I say, even if I say I'll vote for him. No, unless I support Trump in all things and join the covenant with sufficient enthusiasm, I must have bad motives, I'm part of the problem, I'm a traitor. Geeze, it gets so tedious in here. You can't even argue for slight shifts in emphasis to save Trump's chances without immediate accusations. It's pathetic fanboy crap like this that is just boring as shit at this point, and a continuing waste of time. My mistake.

Trooper York said...

Once again you are mis-characterize what I am asking you. It is not fanboy crap to ask why you are consistently negative and consistently attack the guy who is going to be the nominee of the party.

You had asked me several times if there was anything Trump could do that would make me not support him. I gave you several examples. I asked you what Trump has done right. What you could point to as a reason to support him. You haven't ever answered that.

I do think that people like Paul Ryan are traitors. Not to Trump. But to the American people. His desire for unlimited immigration, corrupt one sided globalist trade deals and his refusal to do anything to fight Obama's agenda because "It won't work" is a betrayal of the America people in general and the vast majority of the Republican party in particular.

Trooper York said...

The idea of the wall and getting a handle on illegal immigration is the principle reason for most of the hate thrown towards Trump.

It's the same crap we always get. It can't work. It will never happen. Even if you try we are going to sue you to stop it.

Rinse and repeat.

AprilApple said...

Hatred towards Trump is the fact that his a Hillary stalking horse.

He won't self fund.
Hillary's is killing him with ads.
While he promises his fan boys a wall, the rest of the time he acts like a jackass on purpose to help Hillary. Or is he that dumb? you pick.

Meanwhile - NOW Trump is rambling on about how he is a super model.