Old And Busted: Donald Trump Wins On First Ballot. New Hotness: A Scorched Earth Convention
Tuesday will largely tell us how the GOP convention is going to go. If Ted Cruz wins in Indiana we are almost certainly headed for a contested convention in which Trump has zero chance of getting the nomination. I suspect that if Ted Cruz loses Indiana to Trump that the air is going to go out of the anti-Trump movement in the primaries and Trump will arrive in Cleveland with the requisite 1237 delegates that should assure him a first ballot nomination. But that may not be the case. Because the rules of the convention are both obscure and pliable.
Much of the current thinking is based on the assumption that Trump arriving at the convention with 1,237 bound delegates gives him the nomination and the GOP would either be forced to vote for him (the view of a lot of elected officials) or accept defeat in November in order to stop him, this is the view of the #NeverTrump movement. As I’ve pointed out before, this is sort of a fallacy. Just arriving with the delegates bound doesn’t mean that the delegates will actually vote. And there is growing movement among GOP delegates to say “Not No But Hell No” to the idea of Donald Trump hijacking the GOP for a reality television game plot based when he will have received a minority of GOP votes. This would see the convention transition from the idea of a contested one to one involving acres upon acres of scorched earth.'
Even if Trump crosses the threshold to earn 1,237 bound delegates at the convention, Cruz may not be out of options. The Texas senator has been crushing Trump in the shadow fight for loyal convention delegates — delegates who could be free to vote their preference on a second ballot. It’s conceivable that a majority of the delegates at the convention in Cleveland will oppose Trump’s nomination, even if they’re bound to vote for him. In that scenario, that majority could unseat scores of Trump delegates, rewrite convention rules to eliminate any binding requirements and make it less likely — if not impossible — for Trump to claim the nomination.
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An attempted convention takeover, however, would require Cruz’s team to assume that all of the delegates who have pledged loyalty to the Texan remain loyal in the face of massive backlash from party leaders. Indeed, even Cruz’s team knows that some of their delegates signed on simply to oppose Trump, not out of any deep attachment to Cruz.
Ummm. No. Not even close to true, but more on that in a moment
If Cruz were to pursue a convention takeover anyway, there’s a roadmap waiting for him.North Dakota GOP committeeman Curly Haugland has been agitating for years that delegates may not be forced to vote against their conscience under the party’s current rules. Though a provision requires the secretary of the convention — a position appointed by the delegates — to record votes based on the party’s binding rules, a separate, conflicting provision lays out an entirely different vote-counting process in which delegates may cast a ballot for any candidate they choose — and do it secretly. Haugland argues that the latter rule supersedes the former because it is included in a section of the rules specifically meant to control the 2016 convention.Haugland, who will be on this year’s convention rules committee, said he intends to propose language to eliminate the binding language to govern future conventions. His critics generally dismiss his proposals as politically unpalatable moves that would disenfranchise primary and caucus voters, but this year, the fervor among anti-Trump forces for a contested convention could lend his ideas currency.One advocate of the stop-Trump-at-all-costs approach is Stuart Stevens, a former senior adviser to 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney. Stevens said he’s witnessed the slow acquiescence to Trump by party insiders, but he says he’ll never play along. He said that even if Trump reaches 1,237 bound delegates before the convention, Cruz should use his delegate advantage to block him anyway.“You should do anything you can that’s within — anything you can legally — to try to win an election,” he said. “The Republican Party prided itself on opposing the Communist party and it would be a laughable irony if they fell into the Communist Party line and were supposed to ‘do what’s good for the party.’ Brezhnev would be chuckling somewhere.”“I’m for fighting all the way,” he added.
There are two parts to this puzzle.
The first part is stopping Trump. The fact that Cruz has succeeded in having selected as delegates a large number of men and women who are hostile to Trump indicates that Haughland’s strategy is not far-fletched. The idea that people who have been selected by Cruz as delegates are going to give a rat’s patootie about the wrath of “party leaders” is laughable. These are men and women who are pretty much opposed to a lot of the nonsense the party does anyway and, if they win, that victory will overcome any objections by the Mitch McConnells of the world.
The obvious path in this strategy is for the insurgent delegates to hijack the rules committee and strip many of the Trump delegates of their credentials. They don’t have to create a first round victory for Not Trump, they merely have to deny Trump a victory. If this happens, Trump and his clown posse will leave the convention in a huff, Roger Stone’s flying monkeys will get a well deserved wood shampoo from Cleveland’s finest and then an actual nominee will be selected.
Once Trump is gone, then the real dogfight starts. Cruz may or may not prevail. And Cruz undoubtedly knows this. If he isn’t able to win on a second ballot then the doors are wide open to a compromise candidate. That will not be some go-along-get-along apparatchik anointed by the GOP leadership. Delegates that have carried off this coup will never, ever agree to that. We could see Rubio reemerge as a contender. Or Rick Perry. Or Scott Walker. Or someone else but whoever it is will be a quantum leap over Donald Trump.
What effect would this have on the election? It might make things more difficult. Obviously a lot of Trump supporters are going to suffer ass abrasions and stay home. That’s fine. Anyone who would actually support Trump to that extent is probably too stupid to be trusted with the franchise in the first place. The fact that the GOP rank-and-file delegates acted on their own to clean house when the leadership was getting ready to kiss Trump’s pinky ring (assuming you could find one narrow enough to stay on those little tiny fingers) would be a huge positive. I think even if Cruz was not the eventual nominee it would be very easy for the GOP to coalesce around a compromise candidate and fight the next election because the important mission of saving the GOP from Trump would have been accomplished.
But at least we would have a fighting chance. Hillary is a terrible candidate and a GOP that has excised the Trump tumor would be competitive. A GOP either behind Trump or acting to block Trump would suffer defeat of a horrendous magnitude.
Commentary: These are your #Nevertrump people. These are your Ted Cruz partisans. These are they people who say the people who support Trump are part of a cult. That we want to destroy the Republican party.
30 comments:
It's not the obscurity, it's the pliability of the rules. GOPe will try to find a way to subvert one person/one vote.
I really don't think this is going to happen. Not for Ted Cruz.
Someone brought up the Eisenhower convention. Taking it away from Trump and giving it to a hero general is one thing. Taking it away from the guy who won it fair and square and giving it to Ted Cruz is another thing entirely.
The thing is Trump can win the general. If he does a lot of these mooks will be scrambling for a job. There is no upside to them submarining Trump for Cruz. Cruz is not going to staff his administration with GOPe functionaries. Trump very will might. Follow the money. They are not going to do something this radical in service of Ted Cruz's ambition. If Trump wins big tomorrow that will be that.
The bitter enders can be amusing though. Their delusions remind you of those Japanese soldiers still hiding out on a South Pacific Island or something. Jeeezz.
Try anything goofy and the Republican Party, in any form, ceases to exist.
If Ted Cruz wins in Indiana we are almost certainly headed for a contested convention
First of all, if the One True Ted wins tomorrow, it will likely be a split decision, and that's not going to help a guy down 500 delegates.
But the fantasizing of these people We could see Rubio reemerge as a contender. Or Rick Perry. Or Scott Walker.
In what alternate universe? My God, Rubio's cooked and so is Perry. And Walker never got in the oven.
Of course, this is RedState, so we're talking Libertarians.Their fantasy is, if the Republican Party dies, they pick up the pieces and take over Conservatism in this country.
We saw the chances of that with the Rand candidacy.
PS Meth, Haugland hasn't been watching the fortunes of the One True Ted sink faster than HMS Hood once people got a good look at his kind of rulesmanship.
He's living in the days of Boss Tweed and even William Marcy Tweed expired quickly once people found out what Tammany really was.
You have to ask yourself how stupid the inner circle of the GOP is. The easy answer is very stupid. But I think that some in the GOPe are considering the consequences of a successful steal. A very real possibility is that it will kill the party. Don't block Trump and the party will either win with him or lose with him but the party will go on. So it's a survival issue facing the inner circle. And some know it. Or at least sense it. I think reality will be accepted...reluctantly -- no steal attempt.
I agree ric. This is just strum and drang signifying nada.
They can't conspire to make America into Mexico again.
Troop, they hardly speak for all of us. Like I said, I am #NeverHillary.
And let's face some facts, if you want to be real and objective about it, if this went the other way a lot of Trump supporters would have either stayed home or voted for Hillary out of spite. I suspect most would stay home. But had it gone that way we are talking numbers at least equal but probably larger than these #NeverTrump folks.
It is what it is. The best thing to do is leave it alone for now. November is a way off. Folks have to go through their five or seven stages of grief. Trump may pleasantly surprise us all. I find five or seven stiff drinks helps.
If Trump does beat Cruz, then 1237 will mathematically be in reach. The only way that Trump loses it is if the GOPe utterly cheats out in the open, which I'm suspecting they are going to try if Trump walks into the convention with 1237 and they take it from him anyway. if that happens, then I believe hangings should ensue, in the open, publicly and start with Priebus and work on down.
That is one shvach German!
I was shvached as all get out!
The thing is Evi these RedState guys are indicative of the whole conservative intellegensia as a whole. There are some pedantic dimwit who calls Trump supporters Nazi's and cult followers but these guys are just the tip of the iceberg for the anti-Trump shock troops. They will go to any lengths to stop the will of the people. The will of the people expressed through their votes. This guy is expressly throwing that out the window. I think they need to be addressed and not glossed over.
I am tired of being attacked non-stop by the likes of these ideologues. They need to be slapped down hard before they try something that will have disastrous consequences.
Methadras said...
If Trump does beat Cruz, then 1237 will mathematically be in reach.
Right now he's got ~1000. IN is 57, next week WV (where he is heavily favored) and NE have 70.
WA and OR (looking good there), in the following 2 weeks will go with 72 delegates.
In June, CA (where he's now up 34) and Jersey (up 24) hold 223 delegates between them out of 303 (NM, SD, MT have 80).
He could emerge on June 8 with at least 340 more delegates - if the polls are anywhere near accurate and the trends follow NY and the other states where he go ~60%, not counting the states where Cruz looked good before CO, WY, and ND.
Trooper York said...
I am tired of being attacked non-stop by the likes of these ideologues. They need to be slapped down hard before they try something that will have disastrous consequences
Nicely put.
Consider the words of Glenn Reynolds, who most of us thought was a fairly straight ahead guy
TRUMP VS. HILLARY:
Okay, this is something I’ve been wanting to talk about — reliance on “unfavorables.” It seems to me, we’re going to end up with 2 major-party candidates that most people don’t like. The election is going to be decided by the people who are going to be stuck voting for one of 2 people neither of whom they like. The question isn’t who has higher unfavorability, but which one is more capable of getting a vote from a person who is disgusted by both of them. As Sullivan’s paragraph suggests, one is exciting, risky, and entertaining. The other is dreary, predictable, and medicinal.
Hillary is the Cod Liver Oil of candidates. Except that Cod Liver Oil is at least good for you.
Another blog that's dead to me.
He is an employee of The State, and as such, cannot go against The State. To do so would mean he was no longer of The State. He is for Hillary, as is his former girlfriend, the redheaded strange person up in Cheeseland.
As with other law profs, he has drunk so much alcohol that he has rendered himself non compos mentis.
RedState guys are indicative of the whole conservative intellegensia as a whole
I think it may be over for Cruz tomorrow (unless he has a big night). It is what it is. All I am saying is it is a long way till November.
That's just it.
He's making sounds like Bluto when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor.
Reynolds is quoting Althouse. He and Roger Simon (and maybe Richard Fernandez) are the only people at PJ Media who aren't hard core anti-Trump. He's definitely not a Hillary supporter.
Re-read that quote he pulled. It identifies Trump as more likely than Hillary to overcome his negatives. He's quietly and slyly promoting Trump. I've seen him do that many times.
And why is it that writers on the "right" who get so much enjoyment talking about Trump's unfavorability never acknowledge the large part they have played in driving those numbers up?
Once Trump secures the nomination I'm sure we'll see the drumbeat of negativity die down and Trump's numbers will begin to recover. I'd say it's about 50/50 that he's our next President.
Rabel said...
Reynolds is quoting Althouse
If so, my bad.
Hmmm, the cod liver line is his and that's what set me off. You may be right, Rabel.
I'll take this one under advisement.
PS Sixty, except for the time she got a little huffy with him, he's always linked to her.
I've wondered about that continued linking to Althouse, who never seems to show much gratitude and, like Ed said, she got quite huffy with him at least once in the past. I think it's a power play on his part.
did you see the prediction on 538?
This was deep within comments to a post deep within Twitchy that was linked to deep within Insty. All that depth it's a wonder it's even noticed.
The page says 2016 Indiana Rep. primary.
The first graph Trump's line goes steadily down down down down down down down across the page while Cruz's line below him goes steadily up up up up up and you can see they will meet in about two weeks time. But then, suddenly, the fateful day April 30th is the point in time both lines sharply reverse course and in one day May 1 Trump's line leaps well above were it started and Cruz's line drops well below the point that it started. So, the graph looks like the outline to the legs and feet of the Rameses colossus its side. No wait, it looks like a lamp on its side. No, wait wait wait, it looks lie a watertower on its side. No wait, it doesn't look like anything except two lines on a graph that could have crossed being favorite but returned sharply instead with a snap that exceeds both starting points. It's funny were not so much real tragedy involved and hurt feeling all around.
It says, 97% chance of Trump primary win, 3% chance for Cruz.
They say a lot more than that.
Lately whenever I hear the name Indiana I start singing Gary Indiana. The only words I know to it are Gary Indiana repeated over and over, not the real Broadway musical song, the name of the place put to another melody so that a different syllable in Gary Indiana is stressed to force fit the place name to the melody. The melody suggests bustling industry but I don't know the name of it. It goes:
(downward) Doodle doodle doodle doodle doodle doodle
(upward) Doodle doodle doodle doodle doodle doodle
G-a-a-a- - - - - r-e-e-e-
I-n-n-n-
d
ann
ah.
That song. Over and over. It's a delightful tune. You can tell the writer had an abiding fondness for Gary Indiana because that's all he ever says and he repeats it happily like cheerful industry.
Ed, that changes what I wrote, how?
Changes nothing.
I just wanted you to know the linking never stopped.
Rabel said...
Once Trump secures the nomination I'm sure we'll see the drumbeat of negativity die down and Trump's numbers will begin to recover. I'd say it's about 50/50 that he's our next President.
It's already happening. Trump's already in positive territory as Cruz sinks.
There are several Trump- Hillary match-ups and he's winning. In the MOE, granted, but how many times since Eisenhower has the Republican gone into an election season ahead?
This one is for you Chip!
I agree Instapundit is saying Trump has more chance than Hillary...
It's subtle...
Hmmm, looks like deal time for Ted is over.
Trump is cool to Cruz for SCUS.
So are Senate Conservatives.
I take it things are quiet on the Other Side.
Holy Rice Bowl Republicans! Check out this Prof's column out: link.
Thankfully, he gets eviscerated in the comments.
That holy rice bowl link. "crude charlatan, an ignoramus, a fraud, conducting a modern medicine show that combines the worst of politics with the worst of professional wrestling. He is a disaster for the Republican Party, limited government, (what remains of) decency in politics, the Constitution, and the country."
Is that all you got? C'non. He's missing, what, misogynist. nationalist, isolationist, incoherent, egoist, narcissist, reality show, short fingered, bad hair, orange skin, untethered, unmoored, philosophically vacuous, Democrat, user, taker, greedy, man behind the curtain in Oz, snake oil salesman, vaudevillian autocrat.
With very gauche taste. Gold plated helicopter blades. Gold plated yacht propellers. Solid gold tidily winks. Who does that?
Then,
"Is that stealing the nomination from the voters? If it is, I don’t care."
"Is that shooting you in face with shotgun intended for elk? If it is, I don't care."
The best Trump burn was provided by that writer at Breitbart that left in a huff. Conservative Jewish lawyer big on campus circuit. Forget his name right off but he's famous. He said Trump ripped off the face of Republican party and wears it around like Hannibal Lecter.
Aw, burn! Good one.
And just as soon as he said it, I retorted in my mind that's what Republicans have been doing! They've ripped off the face of conservatism and have been wearing it, lo, these last decades. Trump ripped it off their stolen face and put it on himself. How's that for stretching a gorgeous analogy. I do like that one. What an image. Trump ripped the face off and wears it. Oh man, that's good. That's why he gets paid the big bucks.
Who was that? Starts with a B. Maybe Benson. [editor quit breitbart] Michelle Fields quit with editor Ben Shapiro. Told you it started with B and sounds like Benson, and it does, Shapiro! He said Trump is Hannibal Lecter wearing the face of Republican party. And he IS. That is perfect.
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