Of course, moving thousands of troops is a difficult thing to hide completely in this day and age, and yesterday Reuters broke the story that large numbers of Russian troops, armed with tanks and artillery, have been sighted near the Ukraine border, more or less opposite the strategic city of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. Worse, Russians have been seen removing unit insignias from their vehicles and uniforms, in emulation of last year’s “little green men” episodes in Crimea and Southeast Ukraine. Putin is either readying to launch a renewed offensive in Ukraine or he wants the world to think he’s about to. Deception, what Russians call maskirovka, is a well-honed art there, so it’s possible this is yet another saber-rattle. But we don’t know yet. Though I suspect we’ll find out soon enough.Meanwhile, some additional US forces are being quietly deployed to Poland. Article here.
Russia is trying to hide its involvement in the war in The Ukraine. Typical of the Russian government, they say the war is between Ukrainian nationalists and Ukrainian separatists, and that it doesn't involve Russian soldiers. And Russia has sent mobile crematoriums to the area to dispose of the bodies of dead Russian soldiers so that they aren't sent home, confirming a Russian presence in a war. Article here.
Russian long-range bombers have been conducting flights in or near American airspace from the Arctic to the Gulf of Mexico. Article here. It's like they are trying to provoke a war by having one of their aircraft shot down.
Keep your eyes on the Middle East, but don't lose sight of Eastern Europe, especially now that the US military has been pared down to such an extent that it lacks the resources to fight a war on two continents. The time is right for an aggressive Vladimir Putin to assert Russian control over the old Soviet Bloc nations.
21 comments:
Winter is coming.
Where in the hell is that reset button?
I thought this was all taken care of.
The problem for an ordinary American in having a "position" on issues like this, what should "America" do about Russian aggression, or any other aggression, is that America, IMO, is no longer a republic. Does The State, DC, represent The People, represent me? Hell, does The State give a damn about us? Other than as a tax crop to be harvested? Not that I see. The State has its own interests, its own ambitions. It is no longer ACCOUNTABLE. Just one example: apparently The State has no problem with Mexican aggression, a far more vital threat to the life of The Nation (us peasants) than Russian aggression. When you don't trust your government any longer, when you don't even know what motivates it....fatalism ensues.
Maybe Merkel will stand up to Russia when Russia invades Ukraine...or Poland. Which begs the question: does Merkel represent the German People? I dunno.
Maybe Merkel will stand up to Russia when Russia invades Ukraine...or Poland. Which begs the question: does Merkel represent the German People? I dunno.
My first thought was what will they be wearing--the Germans always have the best uniforms: link
Huh. Well, at least the insignia is familiar (and probably offends Muslims). How did the German and the Turks ever form an alliance?
chick - Okay, here's the thing, the Germans wanted to get around Great Britain's Suez Canal and have their own access to the middle east so they pushed the Berlin to Baghdad railway project, which of course ran through Turkey (then, the Ottoman Empire). So they got very cozy with the Turks. There were even a sizable number of Germans who were known as Bosporus Germans. They were deeply into doing business with the Turks and built some famous villas in Istanbul.
Okay, here's the thing, the Germans wanted to get around Great Britain's Suez Canal and have their own access to the middle east
Yes, the British were into Hellenism.
I once spent a week in Berlin, living on beer and doner kabobs. Not a gyro in sight. Very hot and spicy. Burns twice.
Another parallel: The British have their Elgin Marbles while the Germans have their Pergamon Museum
Don't forget East-Asia.
Chinaand India have had a small-scale shooting war going for decades where the Chinese are trying to move their border into Indian territory. Besides the Chinese constructing "fixed aircraft carrier fleet" in the Spratly Islands threatening everybody's waters.
India and Viet Nam just concluded some kind of common defense treaty, and it would not be too surprising if the Philippines and other SE Asia states start asking, "Hey, can we get in on this too?"
Likewise, I suspect NATO will break up, and the Baltic nations will form their own defense league based on Germany, and the southern nations will group around ?
I suppose Turkey will be more worried about Iran than Russia, but who knows?
All hail Emperor Obama and his foreign policies!
Putin wants to rebuild the old Soviet Union, one way or another. He has often criticized Gorbachev for (essentially) surrendering to Reagan, for allowing the Soviet Bloc nations to gain their independence, and for instituting democratic reforms in Russia. He may never again see an America as weak as it is, and a leader as willing as Obama to do nothing in the face of aggression by other nations. Perfect storm.
Putin fits the profile of the hubristic dictator who leads his nation into catastrophe........I thought that perhaps madmen dictators would have learned a useful lesson from the fall of Saddam and have trimmed their sails a bit. Instead it appears that we have been the ones who have learned a useful season from the fall of Saddam and later Qaddaffi. It seems that no Middle Eastern dictator is so corrupt and ruthless that he can't be replaced with someone far worse.
The Chinese are building a military base in international waters.
Bottom line. If you are an expansionist, neighbor threatening bully, the Obama presidency is like a dream come true.
Putin continues to poison his political rivals.
Is the Former Soviet Union - aka Russia and the Ukraine - "Eastern Europe"? Meh, I suppose so, It just sounds funny to me.
Here's the deal. The Ukraine was ruled by Moscow for hundreds of years, the border between the two countries simply follows the old Soviet administrative border between the Ukraine SSR and the Russian SSR that was established after the Russian Civil war. There are large numbers of Russians who live in the Ukraine especially the eastern part.
Bottom Line: A border dispute between these two countries is none of our business and we should butt out. I know all the McCainiacs and warmongers miss the cold war and want desperately to think that Putin wants to rule the world - JUST LIKE HITLER!!! - but I doubt it.
The other point is that with Russia having 10,000 nuclear warheads and a large army thats 5,000 miles away, we have couldn't stop Putin from conquering the Eastern Ukraine even if we had overwhelming US interest in doing so.
One problem with Warmongers like Lindseed graham cracker and McCrazy is they talk tough and want to get us involved in every little foreign squabble but ignore the fact that the US army is at an all time low in terms of men, armored vehicles, and overseas lift capacity. How many divisions could we send to the Ukraine? One? How many tanks? A couple hundred?
And what do we do if the middle east explodes while we're bogged down in big muddy Ukraine?
As a major power or alliance, whether you will actually intervene or not, it is infinitely more useful and effective to make others think you will. Telegraphing your weakness or apathy is just dumb, and counterproductive for no gain. You are not taken more serious when you stay silent, even if you don't intend to act. At least a bluff adds risk to your enemies, whereas indifference is exactly what they hope for, and it encourages them. That said, you must be willing to act on occasion, and until recently, we did have that threat. Right now, we have no power to influence anyone, because they know we will never act under this leadership. Our greatest strength was we had leaders that our enemies considered either serious or crazy. They are confident that our current leadership is cowardly, careful, or naive, but not dangerous. We are invisible.
Why drawn "towards" and not "toward?"
Is it because Ritno is evil?
Bill Clinton signed a treaty with Ukraine in 1994. The treaty obligated the US (and a few European nations) to protect Ukraine's border with Russia in exchange for Ukraine giving up most of its nuclear weapons. More here.
Obama cancelled part of the European missile defense program the US had committed to in order to protect Europe from Russia. More here. And here.
Remember how he wanted Putin to know that he'd have "more flexibility" after the election? Interesting.
Poland should be very, very nervous. After Russia goes through Ukraine, Poland is next.
Not Poland, I fear for Kazakhstan. Once Putin begins to march on Ukraine and takes Kiev, he will no doubt go after Kazakhstan, the lynch pin of the Caspian Sea region. Then the dominoes will fall, with the end game leading Putin to Turkmenistan. At this point, the Caspian Sea will be a Russian Lake.
We must not let this happen. I just hope Obama has the guts to start WW III -if necessary - to prevent us from losing the Eastern Ukraine.
The early 60s and the late 60s meet the 30s in one year.
Incompetence this vast takes effort.
Putin and China smell weakness. The Brits have pared their armed services so much over the last 20 years since Thatcher that NYC has more cops than they have uniformed military. We have a feckless leader who is leaving this country more vulnerable than any time in my lifetime.
Putin has to be the most Democratic and laziest world conqueror ever. For a man, who's JUST LIKE HITLER!! - he's incredibly slow and timid. Remember the border dispute with Georgia, years ago? At that McCrazy proclaimed it "the most important foreign crisis since WW 2" - putin was on the march!
But then nothing. Then Putin took over the Crimea and again it was supposed to be step 1 in his plan for World Conquest, but he didn't do much of anything for quite a while. Now, in 2015 he's finally done something, he's making noises about Eastern Ukraine.
At this pace, he'll attack Poland in 2040.
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