The first is the realist, geo-political consideration. In Putin’s world, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Russia has lost nearly one fourth of its geography, one half of its population, and more than half of its GDP. Among the “lost” territories are those that are strategically important or militarily advanced, such as Ukraine and the Baltic states. With the eastward expansion of NATO, and the integration of former Soviet satellite states and republics in Eastern Europe and the Baltics into Europe, the traditional buffer zone between Russia and the West is increasingly squeezed and Russia’s space for strategic maneuvering becomes smaller with each year... (read more)The Diplomat via ZeroHedge
The second consideration is more psychological in nature. Following the end of Cold War, embracing the West was the first priority of Russian foreign policy. But to Moscow’s dismay, it found that the West still harbored strong reservations and considerable distrust. Years spent courting and wooing provided little of what Russia craved most: equal membership in the West and economic prosperity. Though Russia became part of the exclusive G8, it never enjoyed the full status and say of the other seven members, always remaining an “other.” Economically, the shock remedy proposed by the West and faithfully implemented by Boris Yeltsin didn’t bring the expected economic benefit. Instead, it took Russia’s economy into freefall, leaving the average Russian worse off than before.
It was Putin who saved Russia from its miserable condition. He readjusted both Russia’s domestic and foreign policies, and distanced the country from the West, instead seeking opportunities to resurrect past Soviet glories. As the Russian economy improved, the West found that its time was passing. The 2008 economic crisis hit the U.S. and Europe hard and they found themselves more reliant on the emerging powers, Russia included. It is Britain, France, and even Germany who are now busy appealing to Russian oil bacons to buy more and invest more. The balance of power between Russia and the West has shifted... (read more)
Russians, and especially Putin learned a hard lesson from the post-Cold War romance with the West: For all the talk of democracy and freedom, the fact remains that the strong dictate to the weak.
With Europe rotten and United States weakened, a resurgent and confident Russia will definitely not let a geo-strategically important former Soviet republic fall entirely into the West’s camp. By annexing Crimea, Putin not only secured Russia’s naval base and its strategic gateway to the Black Sea, he also sent a powerful message to Ukraine and the West: Ignore Russia’s legitimate strategic concerns at your own peril.
Monday, March 24, 2014
The Diplomat: "Interpreting Putin's Decision"
"So why has Putin risked Russia’s economic welfare and political space to swallow Crimea, push Ukraine out, and alienate the entire Western world? Is Putin “in another world” as German Chancellor Angela Merkel claimed he is? In my opinion, there are at least two considerations behind Putin’s decision."
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35 comments:
Putin isn't risking anything.
I disagree with your basic premise.
I know Russian and Soviet history pretty thoroughly.
This is entirely a win for Putin on the domestic front. Resentment of the West and of the U.S. dominates Russian political thought. And, Russia is in the driver's seat in terms of economics, because it hasn't hamstrung itself in terms of energy production, as the West has done to appease the greenies.
And, the West cannot respond with military force unless it is willing to risk a nuclear exchange.
So, Putin is risking nothing.
I thought it was a very good article.
Hitler did the same thing.
Exactly.
And, until he invaded Norway, nobody did a thing.
Obama had more flexibility after the election. Turns out he was right.
With Europe rotten and United States weakened...
“Rarely on the world stage have we suffered through two such extremes as an erstwhile community organizer theorizing against a former KGB agent. If only Putin were a run-of-the-mill college president, then Obama might order a takeover of the faculty lounge. Or if Putin were a local bank president, Obama, the SEIU, and Acorn might yell on his lawn about lending more money to the inner city. Alas, even Chicago is not Russia.”
-VDH
Only the tragically hip have difficulty understanding Putin. Putin LOVES Russia. He is an unapologetic nationalist. In other words everything that has been left behind - they think - by the hipster with-it one world rulers of the destroyed West.
Couldn't get past Russian oil bacons.
I'm hungry.
Only the tragically hip have difficulty understanding Putin. Putin LOVES Russia.
A less naive view would be that Putin is motivated by a desire for personal power, and his appeals to nationalism are merely a means to an end.
Were he actually motivated by a desire to do what is best for Russia, we would be forced to conclude that he's not a very intelligent man. His policies are doing immense long-term harm to the country.
Poppycock. There is no long term downside to what he is doing. What people are going to be less afraid of Russia? They are going to be more trusting of the United States who abandons their commitments? They will be willing to abandon or forgo Nuclear Weapons like the Ukraine did for a promise of protection from the pitiful giant that is the US?
I don't think so.
Now don't get me wrong. I don't think we should be involved in the Ukraine. I would give them the arms and the anti-ballistic missile tech that Obama took away from the Eastern Europeans. But if we are not going to do that then we need to just sit back and let the bear enjoy it's meal. In this one case Obama's weakness and incompentence has a positive effect.
It also tells Israel that they need to take care of themselves. That they need to up their nuclear arsenal and take out the Iranian bomb if they can. Poland should take note. They should develop nuclear weapons before Putin starts to look at them like an appetizer.
Obama's weakness and incompetence will lead to additional nuclear proliferation and instability.
Heck of a job, Brownie!
Poppycock. There is no long term downside to what he is doing.
Wrong as usual, shit-for-brains.
Putin is running Russia the way the Saudi family runs Saudi Arabia -- enriching himself and his cronies, but doing nothing to diversify the economy, establish a viable political system, or
maintain good trade and political relations with neighbors. The Russian political and economic system is entirely reliant on Putin's cult of personality and the generous use of petrodollars to reward cronies.
Putin is just Hugo Chavez with a Russian accent. The end result will be the same.
Revenant, I know it makes you feel superior to see through everything and everyone but there's nothing deep about being a cynic.
Sure whatever you say there pal. Putin is running it like a crime lord. Crime pays.
The people of Russia are long suffering serfs who are totally behind Putin's program. They are tired of being punching bags. But he can buy them off by rewarding his friends and punishing his enemies. In the real world people respect strength. Or at least fear it and act accordingly. Grow up pinhead.
When you are an atheist you have nothing to believe in except your own moral superiority.
It is to laugh.
May I ask why, in your analysis, Europe is rotten and US is weakened. That stuck out because I consider the US rotten and Europe always weakened. So I both rotten and weakened. And that explains everything. And Russia even more so. Russia is weak. And rotted resolve everywhere else even weaker. Weakness and rot all around. Is that a fair assessment?
I've been thinking about rot a lot lately. That rhymes.
The smell of it. I thought of a scene that I lived and was transported to it. That happens. It's Colorado up here, it happens. We're a center for that sort of thing, you know. Outside the immediate base but still on the land and under the omnipresent ever turning ever vigilant radar is an apple orchard we took for private. Barry said so, but how would he know? He made up answers for me as we went along. I leaned that later. I'm actually smarter than he is but then he had the advantage of a few years. Probably planted by previous airmen. Late summer, warm day, trees loaded, or they were loaded, now mostly on the ground rotting. In a tight little valley like that the smell is held in the spot for the day and you detect the scent of fermenting alcohol as you approach the alluring group of trees.
We are starving. Always starving.
Just try to find a good apple in that whole group of trees.
Surely there will be several handy right there on the trees. But no. Every apple you pick up is ruined somehow. Got a worm in it, some bug, the insects invaded and had their ways with the trees. Fruit fell and you cannot take a step without squishing a rotten apple. And you cannot find a good one on the trees.
Eventually you do find a few good ones still on the trees. There are a few good ones left, but you really do have to look, and you really do have to be careful when you take a bite.
The smell of that is primal. Not altogether bad.
This is how wines were invented. Discovered. How it is known that chocolate is better when it has undergone such treatment as partial rotting on the ground.
The guys are out collecting chocolate nuts that grow on the trunks of trees, on the wide branches, all over, wildly, like a primitive tree form with bizarre budding habits and collect the pods on the ground, some rotting, split open and oozing fermenting goo. They stick their hands in and pull out the seeds. "Let's use them anyway. The king will never know." And they turn out to be the best of the lot.
Partial rotting, and controlled rotting used in foods all over the world forever. Cheese, as a way to preserve milk pre refrigeration, mold gets to it and they eat it anyway. They have to. Turns out okay.
Yogurt. Miso. Bread.
I watch hundredsxxxx okay fine, dozens of videos of people making some kind of dough. In each case the Youtube amateur chef says, "I let the dough rest for one hour"
Another says ten minutes.
Almost all say they don't know why, but that it is necessary.
It is necessary for rot. Enzymes are released when wheat seeds become wet, even in flour form. Enzymes do an unlocking thing. Unlock, unlock, unlock, like a thousand unlocks per second. They are fast. They are literally breaking down starch molecules. When wet, wheat begins to digest itself. That is what resting does. Along with other things, water distribution, absorption, and such, this is what "relaxing" means. Within 20 minutes dough for bread, noodles, whatever, becomes a different substance and can be worked much more easily.
Aged beef is noticeably better tasting than un-aged beef.
Rot. The US is rot. Life exists with rot, but there is no denying the primal odor of rot.
You want to talk about rot. Here is an example of European rot. English hospitals used the flesh of aborted babies to heat their hospitals. This is the type of medical system that Obama and the progressives want to bring to America.
I would like to see somebody blog about that.
Sorry for going off track. But this is were we are heading if we try to be more European in our behavior.
I first noticed revived American animosity towards Putin and Russians in general when he signed off on those "anti-gay" laws in Russia and it's been downhill ever since: conveniently forgetting that Putin confronted and defused a trigger-happy Obama over Syria; trashing the Russians at Sochi; and now the Crimea annexation.
And yet, the Lefties cannot be serious about confronting any future Russian threat. Just today we learn that Obama is eliminating our own Tomahawk missile program. I guess this could mean that the next confrontation will be full-on nuclear or cyber warfare.
Chip, if I wrote a comment that long I'd be done for the day. Exhausted. Headed for bed. And you're probably just getting started to bake a cake or construct a fantastic pop-up greeting card or map the Serengeti. Oh well, different energy levels.
Here is an example of European rot. English hospitals used the flesh of aborted babies to heat their hospitals.
You'd think that the Brits would have had the decency to build and use separate ovens. Even the Nazis didn't heat with crematoria.
What incredibly bad optics.
Hey this is the medical system that people like Obama and Kerry and Hillary and Pelosi praise to the skies. This is what they want to bring to the American Health Care system. The degradation of human life is just a bonus for them.
That is what you get when you let atheists run your government. Just sayn'
I see the author of that piece at The Diplomat is Wei Zongyou, professor and vice dean of the Institute of International and Diplomatic Affairs, Shanghai International Studies University, Shanghai, China.
Wonder if he's on Putin's payroll, or just laying the groundwork for China's future intentions, with lines like "For all the talk of democracy and freedom, the fact remains that the strong dictate to the weak" and "Ignore Russia’s [or China's] legitimate strategic concerns at your own peril".
I first noticed revived American animosity towards Putin and Russians in general when he signed off on those "anti-gay" laws in Russia and it's been downhill ever since: conveniently forgetting that Putin confronted and defused a trigger-happy Obama over Syria; trashing the Russians at Sochi; and now the Crimea annexation.
Jesus, man. Is there anything Russia can do wrong in your eyes? They're practically a 3rd world country. Sochi had to be the biggest joke of an Olympics, ever. Talk about bad optics.
It's almost like the lefties who were delusional enough to think the USSR had a good thing going now have a complement in righties who think a KGB thug can do no wrong. What gives? It's crazy.
As for things I can agree with right-wingers about, that NHS hospital scandal is pretty gruesome and horrid. They are not a health care system to emulate, and I don't think anyone does. Not every country's system is the same - most vary quite a bit in how they're run, actually.
The smell of rot is the smell of sulfur.
I thought it was the very aptly named cadaverine and putrescine, actually. Didn't you blog about them, at one point?
In any event, people obsessed with garlic certainly come off in a rotten way. I agree that the right touch of it adds exactly what so many dishes need, but a lot of folks seem to think that if they eat enough to saturate their sulfur-metabolizing enzymes with it, all is good.
All is not good when that happens. Ingesting enough to make your body smell like a garlic farm is bad news.
I thought it was the very aptly named cadaverine and putrescine, actually. Didn't you blog about them, at one point?
What is the world's smelliest chemical?
Cool link.
Now that you've done a series on the Biochemical Aroma of Stank, it's only fair that you do a series on the Biochemical Aroma of Sexy.
Did you know that wiki also has an article on "malodorants" as crowd control methods and a particular one experimented w/by Americans helping the French resistance called "Who Me"?
From your link, one of the stinkies I highlighted:
Skatole or 3-methylindole is a mildly toxic white crystalline organic compound belonging to the indole family. It occurs naturally in feces (it is produced from tryptophan in the mammalian digestive tract) and coal tar and has a strong fecal odor. In low concentrations, it has a flowery smell and is found in several flowers and essential oils, including those of orange blossoms, jasmine, and Ziziphus mauritiana.
Where is Palladian?
I think Putin has already overreached. The Russian economy is based on expensive oil. A great many people both here and in Europe will start rethinking their positions on shale oil. If Putin thought world leaders were suspicious and wary before, he should check them out now.......I see a lot of articles about how Crimea and the Ukraine were and/or should be a integral part of Russia. Maybe, maybe not. Ireland was a part of Great Britain for hundreds of years, but mostly in the way that the lion and the lamb dined together. I don't know much about Russian history, but the people of the Ukraine must have a massive grudge against the Russians, and this isn't going to be received as a good will gesture. Putin now has tens of millions pissed off people both on his borders and within his own country. There won't be a happy ending.
and a particular one experimented w/by Americans helping the French resistance called "Who Me"?
Le Pew!
Garlic is good for your testicles, Ritmo.
I'd think you'd be into that.
Seriously, a heavy dose of garlic does wonders for an Old Dawg.
I slice up and saute an entire head of garlic when I broil a steak. Add a little Worcestershire (go ahead, Ritmo, and bitch about my spelling), and you've got a dish that makes your gonads sing!
The "Singing Gonads" would be a great name for a rock band.
R & B said....
All is not good when that happens. Ingesting enough [garlic] to make your body smell like a garlic farm is bad news.
Ah, you've spent a fair amount of time in Korea, I see.
Chicken Little's list of stinky stuff has my favorite (essense of vomit) at # 3. Butyric Acid was the bad frat trick du jour for those in Biochemistry labs back in my day.
Those in bio-chem hated everyone else...because everyone else smelled better. Paybacks are a b....
Oh, and back on topic, I think Trooper York has it right vis a vis Putin and Russia.
Based upon my personal experiences, there several sizes of 3rd world nations....and a huge one can be one hell of a lot more dangerous than Venezuela or the KSA.
Godwin Alert: There was once a little Corporal who was a thug organizer...
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