Seventeen. What kind of hat will Bruno Mars wear during the half-time show? Fedora is such a heavy favorite that you have to bet $100 to win $66. It’s for good reason too. Bruno Mars showing up without a fedora is like Peyton Manning taking the field without a helmet or Joe Buck going live without a can of Aquanet holding his hair in place. It’s possible Mars could rock a fur hat (11/2) or a tuque (5/1), but the “wears no hat” option at 5/2 is absurd.
Sixteen. Will Richard Sherman get a taunting penalty? The odds are 4:1 on Yes. Two weeks ago, maybe. But after his Super Bowl week conversion to NFL statesman, there are better odds Sherman plays a down wearing Bruno Mars’ fedora.
Fifteen. Coin Toss - heads or tails? Even. RJ Bell of Pregame.com says this is the most popular prop bet of the Super Bowl because it’s easy to understand for people who don’t know much about point spreads and over/unders. “There’s also a perversity to it,” he said, “and it’s a topic of conversation.” Plus, bettors like a little action before the game even starts.
Fourteen. Peyton Manning total passing yards over/under 289. If coin toss is the most popular novelty, the yardage for the game’s most popular player is always one of the biggest on-field props. Manning threw for over 289 yards in 14 of 18 games this season. Of course, he wasn’t playing the Seahawks defense in any of those.
Thirteen. Even. Will the player who scores the first touchdown have a jersey number above or below 79.5? You’ll push if a player wearing No. 79.5 scores first.
Twelve. 2,500:1. Seattle or Denver to score exactly two points. Since the merger, a team has scored exactly two points in a game eight times. But two of those games happened in the past 24 months. I’m just saying.
Eleven. 20:1. Red Hot Chili Peppers to announce that they have renamed themselves Chili Peppers during the show. This is a weather related bet, obviously. Novelty props are easy to bet and the limits on the wagering (often as low as $50 on the quirkiest of props) invite light action. There’s also another motive for setting ridiculous offerings, like the one above. The word of mouth and viralness of these is an important consideration, the sports books are thinking if all these media outlets are talking about this, it’s free advertising.
Ten. Who will be seen on TV first Pam Oliver (46%) or Erin Andrews (54%)? This is a tough one. Does Oliver’s seniority win out or does Andrews’ post-Sherman fame get her the first on-air?
Nine. 12:1. Russell Wilson’s first pass to be an interception.
Eight. 10:1. Peyton Manning’s first pass to be an interception. Two interesting things about these odds. First, Manning threw an interception on 1.5% of passes in 2013. You’re getting terrible value if the odds are 10/1. Second, Russell Wilson threw fewer interceptions than Manning (9 vs. 10), but had a higher percentage of passes picked off (2.2%). Why are his odds steeper?
Seven. 3:2. Will Knowshon Moreno cry during anthem? These are the exact same Super Bowl odds I’ve set on my wife crying during a beer commercial in which a puppy befriends a horse.
Six. 3:1. Will Percy Harvin leave the game with an injury? Let's hope not. All you need to know about the fragility of Percy Harvin is summed up in those 3:1 odds. Given Harvin’s history of injury, this may be the easiest money on the board.
Five. Even. Will Wes Welker drop a pass?
Four. 13:2. Will the game go to overtime? Bets with long odds like this are a favorite among gamblers. Other “classics” are “will there be a safety?” (6:1) and “will there be a successful two-point conversion?” (9:2). There never has been a Super Bowl overtime, by the way. Other “classics” are “will there be a safety?” (6:1) and “will there be a successful two-point conversion?” (9:2). There never has been a Super Bowl overtime, by the way.
Three. 20:1. Will the power go out during the game? Pertinent question: Has the mayor of East Rutherford done anything to upset the Chris Christie administration?
Two. 7:2. Will announcers say the word “marijuana?” You make the call.
One. Even. Will any member of the Red Hot Chili Peppers be shirtless during their performance? Sightings of Flea and Anthony Kiedis wearing shirts on stage are rarer than seeing Bigfoot and the Loch Monster having brunch. Then again, given the NFL’s irrational fear of exposed nipples, maybe the 50/50 odds are spot on.
Game starts at 6:30 PM EST.
30 comments:
Where's the pre-game super bowl trash talk?
I imagine Icepick is up on the roof, setting up the blue luminaries and the giant sign that says "I've got your 12th man right here, bitchez".
I put all my money on the dachshund in the Puppy Bowl.
What are you watching?
2,500:1. Seattle or Denver to score exactly two points.
I want a prop bet on whether or not the score 2-0 is seen at some point during the game. It happened four times this year, if memory serves, including three times in one week. Definitely weird.
I imagine Icepick is up on the roof, setting up the blue luminaries and the giant sign that says "I've got your 12th man right here, bitchez".
I honestly don't care that much. I'm just tired of the "Peyton Manning is so fucking good, he's even more holy than Barack Obama": bullshit from the people who only listen to what the press agents put out.
I would prefer the Seahawks win, but my hatred of the Broncos predates Mailbox Head's arrival in Colorado by decades.
17: Bet Fedora
16: No
15: Tails
14: Under
13: Below
12: Won't happen
11: Won't happen
10: Pam Oliver
09: Won't happen
08: Won't happen
07: Will happen
06: Will happen
05: Will happen
04: Yes (overtime), No (safety), Yes (two point)
03: No
02: Joe Buck
01: Will happen
$1 Donation to the website for every bet lost. Anyone else up for it? Will help if the results are posted.
Does Oliver’s seniority win out or does Andrews’ post-Sherman fame get her the first on-air?
Most likely this is more a matter of whether or not something interesting happens that requires a sideline reporter for either team first.
Why are his odds steeper?
Because Wilson is more likely to be given a very safe first passing attempt. Manning will take whatever's there, including something that might be risky.
...
The only interesting action on the Chili Peppers would concern tube socks and light bulbs, and both would be extreme long-shots.
And for the record, I would bet Seattle for the win. But I imagine it will probably be a fairly tight game and I'm looking forward to it. But I just usually favor defense and running over a passing attack, at pretty much all levels of football.
I also expect it will be key for Denver to get some sort of running attack early, just to keep the front four on that Seattle defense honest. They can get really nasty when they can key on a passer. That could make a real difference in the red zone because Manning hasn't seen a secondary as long and tall as that, and he isn't the most strong armed passer in the world.
I bet that Leisure Suit Larry has touched every type of puppy in the Puppy Bowl inappropriately over the last twelve months.
I have a letter of authenticity to that effect from Dylan Farrow.
I'd take the Percy Harvin bet. He's been fragile since his days at UF. More explosive than Reggie Bush was, though, when healthy.
I have a letter of authenticity to that effect from Dylan Farrow.
And if you can't trust Dylan Farrow, who can you trust?
I'd like to have had a prop bet on the odds on a two-fer: that Bruno Mars and the Chili Peppers do that ode to heroin "Under the Bridge" during the half-time show AND that a celebrity would over-dose on the same day. But it wouldn't happen anyway, because the song is notionally about LA, not NYC. Maybe they could do a Ramones song about drug abuse instead.
"You really crack yourself up."
That was something my sister-in-law once said to her brother while he was being something of an attention-seeking ass. We'd all been drinking.
What she said struck a chord. I'd never before heard anybody put their finger right on a situation so perfectly before.
You see, his attention-seeking behavior was only part of it. He was also at the same time hedging his bet by pleasing himself because experience had taught him that he would never get the full reaction from others that he thought he deserved for being so very, very clever.
He still thinks himself very, very clever, even to this very day. And he's still cracking himself up.
I don't know whether he comments on blogs on the internet.
Will help if the results are posted.
I'd keep track, but...beer.
Huh. Forget this one.
Eighteen. Even. Odds of an actor dying in his Manhattan apartment of a drug overdose within 24 hours of the Super Bowl.
Although I would have bet the over if the bet was actor/rock star.
Another Lebowski achiever achieves room temperature.
What? Too soon?
What? Too soon?
Probably. But unavoidable. It's the top news story on every non-news site I've been on today.
And it is ironic that the half-time show will feature the band that did the most loving ode to heroin ever recorded on the day of (most likely) a celebrity heroin overdose.
And somewhere, someone is thrilled because they just won their celebrity death pool, beating out all the Justin Beleiber bets. (I haven't looked to see if anyone in our pool won with PSH.)
So it all comes back to betting action.
How about...
Who will roll the biggest spliff to the game?
It's the Bong Bowl!
Over and under on number of balls thrown by Manning that will bounce off receiver's hands tonight: Ten.
Over and under on number of balls that will bounce off Aaron Rodgers chin tonight: twenty five.
Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Don't answer this because now I flat don't want to know.
I did want to know how many times Broncos went to the Super Bowl. That is a very simple question. My elementary googlefu should lead directly to the answer, but after searching for half an hour
fine!
after searching five minutes I cannot find that simple answer, although I am offered the history of Broncos, the history of Super Bowl, the full history of sprorts statistics, for some reason that plain simple question cannot be answered directly online.
Conclusion: Sports writers are filled to the gills with facts and opinion and are eager to share it but are incapable of answering a direct and simple question.
Tails!
Who will roll the biggest spliff to the game?
Pete Carroll. He's had the most practice.
Over and under on number of balls that will bounce off Aaron Rodgers chin tonight: twenty five.
How the hell did he get an odd number? Is John Kruk gay?
...
Chip, seven times, counting tonight. There was a trip in the 1970s, a loss. Then Elway led them to three loses in the 1980s, before winning twice in the mid-1990s. And then tonight.
Super Bowl Appearances by Team
Safety to start the game!
Joe Namath taught Rappers how to dress before there were rappers.
Interception by Manning
#24 scores first TD
Security swarming the area as Ted Nugent shoots Joe Namath's coat.
No Fedora, no shirts, and Erin takes the lead.
I'm no seer of seers or prognosticator of prognosticators.
I'll just put in $20
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