Monday, November 7, 2016

Make The Call

Here is the current polling for the presidential election to be held tomorrow:

NBC/SM: Clinton +6 Ipsos: Clinton +4 NBC/WSJ: Clinton +4 ABC/WaPo: Clinton +4 Herald: Clinton +4 Bloomberg: Clinton +3
Rasmussen: Clinton +2

LA Times/Dornsife: Trump +6
IBD Trump: +2

On Fox News this morning Joh Roberts reported his data showing Trump winning enough battleground states to net 270 electoral votes.

And Nate Silver just tweeted that Trump will win FL, making his election probable.

Who will win?

More specifically - (1) Who do you think will win, and (2) Who do you believe will win?

Who you think will win is the objective intellectual call. Who you believe will win is the emotional hope placed in the outcome. Assume that there will be no intervening event between now and when polls close tomorrow night.

My mindset this morning is: I think Hillary will win by +3, and I believe Trump will win by +2. I don't see how Trump overcomes the likelihood of rigged voting, the hammering by an in-the-tank media, and the permission given by Obama for illegals to vote. I don't like my answer, but there it is.




90 comments:

bagoh20 said...

Because of all the scandals, the obvious lying, the very high negatives and distrust the American people have for her on top of her poor delivery and divisiveness, Clinton is a worse candidate than Kerry, she's worse than Gore, worse than Dukakis, so why the hell is this even close?

ndspinelli said...

My daughter is 28. She is like myself, mostly conservative, but liberal on some issues. She has a large network of young women through social media and a small biz selling lip products. She voted for Trump. She lives in the Twin Cities and thinks Trump can win MN. She and many of her friends and customers talk about the social pressure, particularly in a venue like the Twin Cities, to not say you're voting for Trump. Now, my daughter is like her old man, she speaks her mind. But among young women, they hate Hillary and see right through the hypocrisy. They by no means like Trump, but like myself and some others here, are voting for him. My daughter believes there is a silent majority of Trump voters. Hopefully we'll know tomorrow night. Myself, I really hope Trump wins. And, the silent majority could be real. But, when you have an establishment focused on defeating Trump, including Obama telling illegals to vote, it is going to be very tough.

AprilApple said...

Clinton needed Trump to win. I've said so from the get go.

I wish Trump would have run third party. (you know -since the GOP is so horrid and awful and die die die!) That way his PerotII efforts would be transparent.

bagoh20 said...

OK then, I think Clinton will win. I believe Cruz will win.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

"And Nate Silver just tweeted that Trump will win FL, making his election probable."

A Florida win would be absolutely necessary for Trump to win, but it does not by itself make his election probable.

To make it probable would be a takeaway state from Hillary: such as Pennsylvania or Virginia or Wisconsin or Michigan or Colorado.

bagoh20 said...

I think there are silent votes on both sides. Very few people are proud Hillary supporters. I see support for Trump being more transparent - that's who has all the bumper stickers and signs. Trump's hole card is enthusiasm. I think his voters are 50% more likely to actually go out and vote. They are excited, while many Clinton voters just feel obligated, and can easily say: the hell with it. She'll be OK without me".

Sydney said...

Clinton will win. They've got cheating down to an art.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

If you haven't voted, go vote.

chickelit said...

Haz, the apparent fact that Hillary dominates in Wisconsin has my meter uncalibrated. I thought I understood those people but I don't. Let them have Hillary. I'll come back for funerals, but that's about it. WTF has Hillary done for WI?

bagoh20 said...

This election makes me very suspicious that this all might just be an entertaining flea circus orchestrated by our alien overlords. So far we have jumped through every hoop. Tomorrow, go outside and take a bow.

Michael Haz said...

Because of all the scandals, the obvious lying, the very high negatives and distrust the American people have for her on top of her poor delivery and divisiveness, Clinton is a worse candidate than Kerry, she's worse than Gore, worse than Dukakis, so why the hell is this even close?

Because vagina and abortion.

Michael Haz said...

Haz, the apparent fact that Hillary dominates in Wisconsin has my meter uncalibrated. I thought I understood those people but I don't.

The Republican strength in Wisconsin elections has been centered in two areas: The counties that surround Milwaukee County (Walworth, Racine, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha), and the counties in the northeast (Winnebago, Brown, Fond Du Lac, Calumet and Outagamie).

However, in the Milwaukee area influential conservative radio talker Charlie Sykes has gone all in as a never Trumper, and the likely result will be a depressed Trump vote in the Milwaukee market. Ditto conservative radio talker Jerry Bader in Green Bay which has the same effect in the northeastern counties. The unintended consequence will be causing Senator Ron Johnson to lose his senate seat to that asshole Russ Feingold.

The balance of the state leans liberal, with the exception of small areas in the far north. And in tehcase of your home area, Dane County is barely distinguishable from Cuba.

deborah said...

haz, cant grasp the believe vs think distinction, guess i'm too literal.

but there are too many variables/unknowns to predict the outcome, it could go either way.

as for voting machine hacking, it's not a given that only the dems can interfere...russia, and esppecially Anonymous, are possible players.

Amartel said...

It's not Russia.

Amartel said...

Don't stop
Believing
Hold on to that feeling

Amartel said...

Will this end like the last episode of the Sopranos?

Amartel said...

When the music stops and the screen suddenly fades to black, will we ever be able to find out/agree on what happened?

deborah said...

lol, it's not russia...

and it's dont stop belieeeeeeving.

Lem said...

I guess Hillary is getting in.

Michael Haz said...

@Chickelit - Part of the issue in Wisconsin is that Paul Ryan has been quite visibly avoiding endorsing Trump. Ryan has been playing cutesie by saying "I'll vote for my party's nominee" and such, but he has refused to appear with Trump. I'm listening to him on a radio talk show right now, and he simply won't tell listeners to vote for Trump.

Why? Much speculation, but the reasons boil down to (1) He's a RINO, (2) He believes he can gain more power by thwarting whatever Hillary wants Congress to do, (3) He wants to be the hero who runs against Hillary in 2020. All three are quite plausible. In the meantime, he's one of the Republican cabal seemingly indifferent to having a Supreme Court packed with Clinton justices, and having a corrupt, kleptomaniac president.

bagoh20 said...

"Because vagina and abortion."

The Democrats who lost big always had the abortion thing too, and it's not a clear winner popularity wise. And, the vagina only gets the same votes the abortion thing does.

So it must be something else making the worst candidate in history still competitive in a year historically favoring the party not in the Whitehouse.

AllenS said...

Took a little drive this morning, and there are about 15-20 more Trump signs than before, and just 1 for Hillary.

Leland said...

I simply don't know. Texas is clearly going Trump. I know the polls are skewed when a week ago their was a claim that Texas was in play.

Oh and Wendy Davis had a chance and was the new shining star of the Democrat Party. Remember her?

So I agree the polls are suspect. To what end? The cynical view is that the skew hides the cheating. I believe it. That's why I agree with Sydney.

If I were to do personal polling, and it showed the actual result; Hillary loses in landslide like Bags describes for Dukakis.

Michael Haz said...

Texas has changed. It's become Californicated because in net in-migration. Houston's previous mayor was a radical left lesbian who demanded (among other things) that all pastors in Houston submit their sermons to her for approval before they were spoken in church.

The mayor of Dallas is a Democrat. Ditto the mayor of Austin.

edutcher said...

Haz, I like the way you straddle a fence.

Me, I don't know, but a couple of things to keep in mind.

Surber notes the last 2 elections ('12 and '14), the polls were off 3 in favor of the Rs, which puts most of the media polls in the MOE. It's also clear the Demos are running scared, following Trump around the country.

Note also the fact the shills, like Ned Silver, are weaseling.

The vote fraud will be a factor, but so will Trump's warning of it.

bagoh20 said...

Because of all the scandals, the obvious lying, the very high negatives and distrust the American people have for her on top of her poor delivery and divisiveness, Clinton is a worse candidate than Kerry, she's worse than Gore, worse than Dukakis, so why the hell is this even close?

Who says it is? Other than the Lefty media?

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

"And Nate Silver just tweeted that Trump will win FL, making his election probable."

A Florida win would be absolutely necessary for Trump to win, but it does not by itself make his election probable.

To make it probable would be a takeaway state from Hillary: such as Pennsylvania or Virginia or Wisconsin or Michigan or Colorado.


I don't think he needs FL, but it looks like he'll take it. And there are too many states where he's dead even that he won't take at least a couple. Note also my comment on the Demos running scared.

PS The Bluebird of Happiness deludes herself if she thinks Little Marco or the One True Ted would be doing any better. By now, Little Marco would be one of "her Republicans" and the One True Ted would be whimpering in a corner because the media was mean to him.

And she tells us who she wants to win by wanting Trump to play Perot. We all know what that led to.

Up yours, sweetie.

Michael Haz said...

So it must be something else making the worst candidate in history still competitive in a year historically favoring the party not in the Whitehouse.

Don't dismiss stupidity.

bagoh20 said...

Haz, It's Occum's razor. Ryan doesn't like Trump for the same reason 60+% of the country doesn't. Then you put on top of it that Trump has personally and publicly insulted many of these people, and it's not that hard to understand. Actions have consequences. Politics is about garnering support and solidifying it - it's not an insult competition. Despite that, many of these people still say they will vote for him. I'd say he's lucky to get that.

bagoh20 said...

OK, Ed. It's not even close. Landslide Trump! I guess he doesn't even need our votes then. Cool, I can stay home.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

I think that Trump will be unable to overcome the overwhelming and already baked into the cake voter fraud. Our elections have been shams for several decades.

And while I wish that Trump wins because the thought of Hillary and her corruption tainting even more than now the already corrupt government, I feel that we are really quite lost as a country. There will be no turning back from this point that isn't fraught with danger and literally death.

My life and the life of people in my age group isn't going to change much. The people that I fear for and feel the saddest about are my Grandchildren and those young enough (under 40) to have to face the rest of their lives in a dictatorial socialistic system. They will never know what they have missed, when America was truly the land of the free.

bagoh20 said...

"...those young enough (under 40) to have to face the rest of their lives in a dictatorial socialistic system."

As long as they have their vote and a mind they can choose another path for themselves and their country. Nobody forces anyone to buy into the leftist lies. The alternative are out there, and everyone has internet to find them, but you have to choose them. Freedom takes courage. Are people willing to live without mother government's guarantees? If like our generation they are not, then they get what they deserve too. There are always liars and thieves running loose, but the blame for hiring them and trusting them belongs with voters themselves.

Synova said...

I'm trying not to think about it. I *believe* that poll watching is one of the reasons we're in this mess to begin with.

edutcher said...

For Sixty, the latest poll (state, so you know if it's for real) has Trump up 6 in NC.

Breitbart notes both state and the FBI have no commo between Frumpty and the Choom Gang the night of Benghazi

Dust Bunny Queen said...

I think that Trump will be unable to overcome the overwhelming and already baked into the cake voter fraud. Our elections have been shams for several decades.

And while I wish that Trump wins because the thought of Hillary and her corruption tainting even more than now the already corrupt government, I feel that we are really quite lost as a country. There will be no turning back from this point that isn't fraught with danger and literally death.


oopsy, that's where it usually leads.

bagoh20 said...

OK, Ed. It's not even close. Landslide Trump! I guess he doesn't even need our votes then. Cool, I can stay home.

I said this when? By saying the polls are probably off 3 puts everything in the MOE.

Chip Ahoy said...

Ha ha, you said, "polls."

Even as the incredible disparity among the array is demonstration itself of their unreliability.

Even with their history of unreliability.

Even as their presenters are well known liars.

Even as their bias is confessed.

Even as our own eyes glaze on the word "polls."

Even as our minds slip to song:

Zip a dee doo dah zip a dee aye

My oh my have a miserable day.

Nothing you conjure nothing you say

Can help your efforts in electoral sway.

How you doing, Brer Rabbit?

Mighty fine, Brer Fox. Please don't throw me in that briar patch.

Above the La Brea tar pits.

So close to the Mt. St. Helens volcano.

On the San Andreas Fault line

In the path of the SMOD.

Please don't do that, Brer Fox, I'll never escape.

Zip a dee do dah ...

Why you singing, Brer Rabbit?

It's either that or make a pop-up card involving a guillotine and a lot of splashed red blotches.

One time I read a book called Conservative Insurgency by a crackpot military colonel

Army.

They're worse than Air Force colonels.

The good part about the book is all the the liberals going insane through crushing disappointment and stay that way for a very long time, a full generation at least.

The bad part about it is that in the book, a novel based on a series of characterizations, it takes a miserable and hopelessly failed Hillary Clinton presidency and global tragedy to bring that to full fruition.

It's simultaneously short-sighted and remarkably prescient, both discouraging and fun.

Amartel said...

"and it's dont stop belieeeeeeving."

Streetlight
Peeeeeeppuuuuuuuuuuuuuullllllll

edutcher said...

Chip Ahoy said...

Ha ha, you said, "polls."

Even as the incredible disparity among the array is demonstration itself of their unreliability.


I would say so.

Even the Peacock is hedging today. They put the Beast at 274.

Trooper York said...

I personally agree with Vox Day and that it will be a Trumpslide.

I take all of the polls with a grain of salt. You are witnessing how in the tank the mainstream media is for the Democrats with the emails detailing how they get the approval of questions or give the debate questions to the Hillary Camp. The polls work the same way. In addition what would have been Republican "rigged" polls like Luntz were not because Trump refused to waste millions on them the way shit heads like Bush and Walker did when they wasted millions upon millions. So Trump has all the pundits, polls and media against him. Even talk show hosts like Beck, Sykes and Hewitt and others who want to make a dollar off of their anti-trump sentiment.

I find it very interesting that Nate Silver is backing away from his confident prediction that Hillary has it in the bag. He is totally hedging so he doesn't look like a complete fool. That is a canary in the coalmine.

Leland said...

Haz, I don't like disagreeing with you, but you don't know Texas. I understand why, but only your data is correct. Houston's former mayor was a radical leftist that pushed her agenda without mandate. Yes, the major municipalities are run by the left. This is just like the "purple" maps that show the county by county red/blue votes. Large urban areas are blue.

But Houston mostly resides in Harris County which is Republican run. In fact, the Houston mayor by law cannot run under a party, so each candidate is essentially an independent. Put a party in the name, which counties do, they lose. Exception is Travis county (home of Austin), which is always weird. I blame the poor education available in that town.

Texas has changed. From 1870-1970, Texas was a Democrat stronghold. In the 1980's, things began to change. Since 1992, we've held a Republican governor. Democrats would like to take Texas back, but they haven't figured out what caused the change in the 1980's. Hint, people here like having jobs, and they know where the jobs come from.

ricpic said...

"Will this end like the last episode of the Sopranos?"

If Hillary loses she takes us all out with an EMP?

ricpic said...

Oops, EMD.

Trooper York said...

There is an answer. The electoral college has to be changed to the Maine model. That is to say that electors should be apportioned by Congressional district and not by State winner take all. This can be accomplished by changing state laws. Since Republicans control most of the States legislatures they can push this through. What would that mean? Places like New York and California will actually matter. It will not be a monolithic vote one way or the other. Candidates would have to contest the whole country not just "battleground" states.

Combine that with salutary segregation and we can turn this around. In a big way. Immigration won't matter. The media won't matter. It will force the election to be decided by communities voting for their interest and not being perverted by arcane winner take all rules. Direct democracy. That is the best bet for America's future.

Michael Haz said...

Whoa. It has been reported that the Clinton campaign notified the Coast Guard that its plans to launch fireworks into the harbor in NYC election night have been cancelled.

Sixty Grit said...

I have to defer to the Great American Philosopher, Yogi Berra, and use his quote - “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

And that's all I have to say about that.

edutcher said...

The Hell you say, Haz.

Best news I've had all day.

Trooper York said...

There is an answer. The electoral college has to be changed to the Maine model. That is to say that electors should be apportioned by Congressional district and not by State winner take all. This can be accomplished by changing state laws. Since Republicans control most of the States legislatures they can push this through. What would that mean? Places like New York and California will actually matter. It will not be a monolithic vote one way or the other. Candidates would have to contest the whole country not just "battleground" states.

I think I raised this point a couple of times myself (and, if I didn't, I should have) because it's the best way to short-circuit electoral politics and corruption as they exist.

The 2 Senatorial electoral votes in ME go to the winner of the state. This system is also used in NE, so it bears serious consideration and adoption.

edutcher said...

For those interested, here's the item Haz mentioned, by way of Drudge, about no fireworks.

I remember reading how Jimmy Carter was told by Caddell the day before the election in '80 the numbers weren't there.

To underscore that, Drudge's headline has Trump markedly outperforming Romney in early ballots in FL and NC. He also notes NM has gone toss-up.

Make of that what you will.

AJ Lynch said...

I think, in the last 40 years, the Repubs stood by idly and watched as the country brought in 3rd World immigrants who ultimately vote for Dems by 6-1 margin. That is how Virginia was turned into a blue state. I have heard that the population in N. Virginia has changed from 5% foreign born to 30% foreign born. Repubs were asleep at the switch while Ted Kennedy and the Dems imported an electorate more to their liking.

They gave away our country and we did not even get a say in the matter. For that reason, I think Hillary will win handily. And I promise to ignore politics for the rest of my life - there will be no reason to fight - the war to save America as we know it has been lost.

Trooper York said...

That can change AJ if the voting is brought back to the people and we vote based on Congressional districts. Segregation is the new reality in the Western World. Look at Britain for example. They are experiencing white flight like we had in Canarsie Brooklyn in the 1980's. Gated segregated communities are becoming the norm. The urban areas that dominate the electoral map because of the imported minorities will lose their power if the electoral college is counted on a county by county basis instead of a state by state one.

This will be the new battleground. This is the only way that the country can be taken back by it's native people. The plans have already begun. The convention of the states will be the first step.

deborah said...

:)

next up d and a do 'it's not unusual,' a la Glee...

AJ Lynch said...

If you change Electoral College so that the state is irrelevant, the Dems will just focus more on gerrymandering districts so that [for example] Philly's Dem voting minorities will be apportioned out to hinterland districts. That will make more districts Dem districts.

windbag said...

I left New York 33 years ago. When I left, upstate was solidly normal (conservative/Republican/Libertarian). So much so that, if I recall correctly, Mario Cuomo only carried NYC when he won the Governorship. All of upstate went for Lew Lehrman. Anyhow, the reason I bring that up is that I don't understand why people are writing off New York for Clinton automatically. Won't upstate go Trump, and isn't there enough of a contingency in the City to root for the local home boy? I think he could pull it off. Perhaps I've been gone too long from the state, and I understand that many people have left the City for upstate, since it's possible to live off the welfare system just as easily in Binghamton or Rochester as it is in NYC. That would push upstate toward Clinton. So, maybe I'm clueless to bring up that possibility.

My current state of North Carolina is a puzzle. Sixty mentioned the influx of Yankee commies in a thread from the other day, and he's right. I'm in the boonies here, and it's solid Trump territory. The staunchest Democrats have been for Trump since before he won the party nomination, which is huge here. But, then you have Charlotte and the Raleigh area. Lots of people, and lots of lefties, which can erase the rural vote.

There is a lot of cheating. Dead people, illegals, double voting, etc., but why bother cheating in California or Vermont, when you're going to win anyway? The places they need to cheat and pad the votes is in the swing states. That's a lot harder to pull off. Of course, they are hard at it in Florida already. Wasn't there a report of people at the election board filling out absentee ballots?

I was very positive in 2012, and hopeful that Romney was going to pull it off and that common sense was going to prevail. I'm not as naive this time around. The silent majority phenomena just didn't materialize in 2012, and I'm not sure it will this time. Hillary has a lot of wealth backing her, and those people want a return on their investment. I'm fully bracing for a Clinton Presidency.

In my heart, though, I want James Knox Polk to rise from the dead and win. He only served one term, so he's still eligible. Hell, if the Democrats don't mind dead people voting, why not dead people serving?

Trooper York said...

I disagree AJ. If they could gerrymander the districts they would have done it already. The statehouses are in the control of the Republicans and they will control it. But even if it was sliced into even geographical bite sized pieces the fact is that housing patterns will determine the districts and more electoral votes will be freed up. Hundreds in just New York, Jersey and California alone.

We have to do something. This is the last peaceful solution. After that we will go to the knife. It still might come to that.

AJ Lynch said...

Re Florida, I bet at least 200-300K former Puerto Rico residents hve now moved to Florida and bet most of them will vote for The Witch. In fact, I bet we will learn soon that a of these re-locations was done in an organized fashion with the help of Dem groups.

I hate them but the Dems play to win!

Sixty Grit said...

Raleigh, and even Cary (Containment Area for Relocated Y*nkees) have a surprising number of people voting for Trump. Durham and Chapel Hill, on the other hand, would vote for Stalin were they given the chance.

Charlotte wants more BLM action. The last riot did not produce sufficient damage to the infrastructure.

Troop, never bring a knife to a gunfight, just sayin'.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

There is an answer. The electoral college has to be changed to the Maine model

I have always thought that THIS is the only fair and modern way to do the Electoral College.

California is a prime example of why. With the exception of the urban and some coastal areas the majority of the states districts vote Republican. In our particular district it is a 70 to 85% republican vote. Sure we don't have a lot of people compared to the SF area, HOWEVER, when our votes are totally erased we are disenfranchised.

For example when the State as a total may vote 52% Democrat and and 48% Republican this means that all of the electoral votes go to the Dems and the rest of the 48% are garbage.

Many states are this way. Rural conservative voters are stomped on by the urban liberals. Think what a difference it would make if each district were to be like in Maine where our votes actually counted!!! The campaign and the way that they go about it would have to change to recognize and listen to ALL of the voters.

If it takes a State vote, then I doubt it would happen in California because the Dems have a lock on the legislature. It may take a long drawn out Supreme Court Battle or a Constitutional Amendment.

I won't live long enough :-(

Trooper York said...

Oh I agree Sixty. That is why I plan to move to an enclave in Florida where I can get a carry permit.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

There is a lot of cheating. Dead people, illegals, double voting, etc., but why bother cheating in California or Vermont, when you're going to win anyway?

Why bother voting in California when your votes aren't worth anything. I vote because it is the thing to do and I have zero illusions that other than a local election, for the State Legislature or for our House of Representatives it is a complete waste of time.

Local bond issues. Local stuff. State Senator forget it. I'm not bothering to vote. We don't even have a republican on the ticket this year because they changed the rules and it is the two top vote getters from the primary. This means that we will NEVER have anything but a Democrat to chose from for our Senate seat. So we are stuck with two liberal retarded twats to choose from. I could have used the c**t word but I feel nice today :-) Two stupid libtard democrat women on the ticket.

ricpic said...

windbag - Though I live just outside Ithaca, which is solid commie, upstate should go strongly for Trump and I too have thought that Trump will do better than expected in NYC due to the home boy factor. Anyway, I'm voting tomorrow for Trump. It may be a quixotic hope but wouldn't it be beautiful if New York finally rejoined IQ 100 territory?

Quixotic is probably the wrong word but who's counting.

edutcher said...

OK, batguys and batbroads, riddle me this.

According to the country's newspaper of record, the London Daily Mail, the Beast called off her fireworks last Thursday. The news just slipped out today.

Make of that what you will

Trooper York said...

Batbroads?

Nice ed. You are channeling me buddy. Love it.

Rabel said...

I'd like to give Haz an answer but I truly don't know what to expect. The Trump enthusiasm is real but so is the Democrat vote machine.

As for a move to apportioning electors based on congressional districts, I'm sure that sounds promising to people in NY and California but with the likelihood of passing that in either of those states near zero you would end up with some number of red states with Republican legislatures making the change and essentially giving a few extra electors to the Democrat nominee while the big blue states remained solid for the Democrat. Seems like a losing proposition to me.

Sixty Grit said...

Is it too early to conclude that all the hints about bombshell emails and secret itineraries and all that other cloak and dagger bullshit was just that - bullshit? If anyone had anything they sure missed their chance to play it, and I am looking at you NYPD - you bunch of corrupt unionized leftists.

edutcher said...

Rabel, take a look at who owns what state legislatures.

More viable than you think.

Republicans own PA, VA, FL, and TX, and split CO and NY, among others.

Trooper York said...

I would do it in the form of a Constitutional Amendment passed in a convention of the states. This would be across the board and would definitely make it a lot more representative of the people.

Rabel said...

NY is only split in that the Senate is Republican while the Assembly is 103 to 42 Democrat. California and Illinois are solid Democrat and aren't going to vote to give some of their electors to Republicans. It's an intriguing idea until it meets up with reality. It still looks like a shot in the foot to me.

If Hillary wins it probably won't matter anyway. I doubt we'll see a conservative candidate win the Presidency in my lifetime after she gets through with a continuation of the Obama importation of Democrat voters. One chance we might have is if the Republican Golden Child of Bags' dreams comes down from the heavens to take the country by storm. Jesus is more likely to get here first.

windbag said...

Why bother voting in California when your votes aren't worth anything. I vote because it is the thing to do and I have zero illusions that other than a local election, for the State Legislature or for our House of Representatives it is a complete waste of time.

I get much more passionate about the local elections than I do about the national elections. A luxury in small communities is that you personally know the candidates. One guy is running this year, who is one of my dearest friends. I'd take a bullet for the guy. I'd help him bury bodies, if he needed me to. I'd do anything for him...except vote for him. He held office before and it was a flipping disaster.

...wouldn't it be beautiful if New York finally rejoined IQ 100 territory?

Yes, it would be. My dad lives over in Watkins Glen. I miss the Finger Lakes.

Methadras said...

Well, the pollsters are willing to eat their own shit to get the twitching shit sack of parkinson's carcass across the finish line. They are willing to eat their own credibility to do so. Like i've said before, I do not and will not believe these polls. The final tally will tell the tale.

Rabel said...

"...wouldn't it be beautiful if New York finally rejoined IQ 100 territory?"

"That is why I plan to move to an enclave in Florida where I can get a carry permit."

There's hope :)

bagoh20 said...

"One chance we might have is if the Republican Golden Child of Bags' dreams comes down from the heavens to take the country by storm. "

I just wanted someone who could beat the worst candidate in history. Was that asking so much? She has a 55% unfavorable rating, so I didn't want to use the guy with 60% unfavorable. I'm a crazy dreamer like that.

rcocean said...

The polls are nonsense. No one knows because it will all depend on turnout and voter fraud. How brazen are the Democrats?

It could be Hillary +3 or Trump in a squeaker. The state by state polls - which are all that matter - or even more dubious.

Given the history since 1992, it don't look good for the Mudsville 9. But maybe Mighty trump won't strike out.

bagoh20 said...

""That is why I plan to move to an enclave in Florida where I can get a carry permit."

Nevada, where I recently bought a house in anticipation of enjoying their freedoms, does not even require registration, and open carry of all guns is legal. Only concealed carry of handguns requires a permit, and it's a "shall issue" state for that. It's the wild west out here, and there's not blood running in the streets. How do they do it?

AJ Lynch said...

Here is what to keep your eye on.

Obama won PA 52-47 in 2012. If PA is much closer than that tomorrow, I think it will indicate that Trump is doing very well in FL, NC and some of the Midwest states.

Trooper York said...

My daughter and her entire family have carry permits. When we were getting ready to run in the face of the hurricane we had more arms than they did at the Bay of Pigs.

I want to be ready when it kicks off. Sixty and Dust Bunny Queen have a big advantage and I need to even it up. Soon. Because I just feel that it is coming sooner rather than later.

edutcher said...

Sixty Grit said...

Is it too early to conclude that all the hints about bombshell emails and secret itineraries and all that other cloak and dagger bullshit was just that - bullshit? If anyone had anything they sure missed their chance to play it, and I am looking at you NYPD - you bunch of corrupt unionized leftists.

You may want to hold your fire on that. Looks like more is coming out, like Willie engaging in fertility rites in Epstein's pagan temple on Sex Slave Island (yeah, I know...).

They may also be waiting to see who wins.

Rabel said...

NY is only split in that the Senate is Republican while the Assembly is 103 to 42 Democrat. California and Illinois are solid Democrat and aren't going to vote to give some of their electors to Republicans. It's an intriguing idea until it meets up with reality. It still looks like a shot in the foot to me.

Those three couldn't stand against the rest of the country. And we may get a chance to observe that. It's looking like the Beast is giving up on OH, NC, and FL and the Trump people seem happy with PA, MI, and VA, and are optimistic about CO and NM.

Troop's probably right about an Amendment (combine it with term limits for congress and the Federal bench).

bagoh20 said...

I just wanted someone who could beat the worst candidate in history. Was that asking so much? She has a 55% unfavorable rating, so I didn't want to use the guy with 60% unfavorable.

As I've said, the"worst candidate" stuff is Cruzzer propaganda. she has the media and all the crooked Democrat machines with her. That makes her pretty formidable.

As for unfavorables, did you know the one with the worst unfavorables often wins?

We're talking President Pissy and Ronald Reagan. So all the little milquetoasts would probably have gotten their asses whipped.

That's what I've liked about Trump.

William said...

I think Hillary will win tomorrow. She's a steady, dependable failure in all that she attempts and does-- except running for office and making money for herself and associates. Wall St. admires that in a candidate, and the market took a huge upward lurch today. To some extent, this has, at least for me, somewhat softened the blow......Back in 2008 I would have preferred her to Obama. I still do. I don't think that she will have a successful presidency, but neither will we have to endlessly read about how truly marvelous she is. What annoys me most about Obama are not his failures, but the way such failures are presented as triumphs. I don't think the same courtesies will be extended to her......For the record I don't think or believe that the apocalypse will occur during her tenure. Rome wasn't destroyed in a day. However, if white working class men become marginal, then America will cease to prosper.. But not for a while yet.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Blogger Trooper York said...
My daughter and her entire family have carry permits. When we were getting ready to run in the face of the hurricane we had more arms than they did at the Bay of Pigs.

I want to be ready when it kicks off. Sixty and Dust Bunny Queen have a big advantage and I need to even it up. Soon. Because I just feel that it is coming sooner rather than later.

November 7, 2016 at 5:54 PM


You might consider moving to a more defensible location...

edutcher said...

William said...

I think Hillary will win tomorrow. She's a steady, dependable failure in all that she attempts and does-- except running for office and making money for herself and associates.

Um, she's only won once IIRC.

I don't think that she will have a successful presidency, but neither will we have to endlessly read about how truly marvelous she is

Really?

How many years did we hear what a beautiful, stylish woman Moochelle was?

bagoh20 said...

For those of us who do believe polls - at least the RCP averages of them:

Latest RCP averages show Trump can win, but it is close.

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/11/07/final-ish-map-of-rcp-state-averages-has-trump-on-brink-of-270-electoral-votes/

Methadras said...

bagoh20 said...

""That is why I plan to move to an enclave in Florida where I can get a carry permit."

Nevada, where I recently bought a house in anticipation of enjoying their freedoms, does not even require registration, and open carry of all guns is legal. Only concealed carry of handguns requires a permit, and it's a "shall issue" state for that. It's the wild west out here, and there's not blood running in the streets. How do they do it?


Because an armed society is a polite society.

bagoh20 said...

As to the weakness of Hillary as a candidate, have you ever seen a Democratic candidate for President openly derided the way she was on MSNBC's Morning Joe? MSNBC for christ's sake! Have you ever seen a Dem. candidate lamented by the press like she has been by many over the wikileaks stuff. Sure, she is protected as well, just like they all are, but she is exceptional in that she is also so bad that even the sycophant media has shown open disgust at her lying, and revelations from wikileaks. No candidate has ever been exposed so much as a criminal, a liar, a fraud as she has. The left has to support her, but I never saw any Democrat so weak that they were actually embarrassed about it. Her weakness is not an opinion I get from others, it's what I see with my own eyes. She sucks in virtually every way a candidate can.

edutcher said...

bagoh20 said...

For those of us who do believe polls - at least the RCP averages of them:

Latest RCP averages show Trump can win, but it is close.


It's called weaseling.

The left has to support her, but I never saw any Democrat so weak that they were actually embarrassed about it.

Actually, the Left, the real Left, hates her. The people who like her are the Uni-Party.

Her weakness is not an opinion I get from others, it's what I see with my own eyes. She sucks in virtually every way a candidate can.

You don't remember 1980, do you?

edutcher said...

As if to make the point about how the Left feels about her, BlackLives crowd gives Willie a hard time.

bagoh20 said...

Trump really needs Pennsylvania now, or Colorado will even do it. The RCP with no toss ups has it at 272 Clinton /266 Trump, and PA and CO are her weakest in the win column.

bagoh20 said...

The 1980 nor any other decade had no candidate as a known criminal being investigated on multiple issues by the FBI, exposed as a serial liar and mishandler of classified information, while also running a fraud charity. It's not even close. She is exceptional in her unfitness, and everybody pretty much knows it.

edutcher said...

Screw RCP. They lie through their teeth.

The only dumber way to go is Ned Silver.

edutcher said...

Carter was in David Rockefeller's pocket and didn't have a clue.

As for known criminal, it has to be proven in court.

bagoh20 said...

RCP called 49 states correctly last election.

edutcher said...

They were given the totals ahead of time.

ndspinelli said...

If Hillary wins, Obama will shitcan Comey. It will be scorched earth and the eunuch Republicans will be the lapdogs they have been the past couple decades. I think there are some very dark days ahead.

edutcher said...

If she wins, but let's all make sure she doesn't.

Frankly, what's come out today sounds like the Demos don't have much faith.

MamaM said...

Thanks for the post, MHaz. Trump's last stop tonight is Grand Rapids, Michigan where he was due at 11 and will be arriving closer to midnight with a crowd estimated at 10,000 waiting.

http://woodtv.com/2016/11/07/donald-trump-at-devos-place-in-grand-rapids/

Michael Haz said...

Election Day update: Nate Silver is beginning to sorta walk back is predictions of a Clinton victory. By the middle of the afternoon, I expect other pollsters will do the same, citing the difficulties in reaching some voters, etc. Heh.

I voted at 10AM, wanting to avoid the throng of people voting on the way to work. My polling place was jammed. Full parking lot, full voting room. It was not this full for the Scott Walker recall election, which had a huge turnout.

Stuff is happening.