Friday, June 10, 2016

Next two weeks seen as crucial for Trump

Erick Erickson:  If Trump can go the next two weeks without unforced errors and can do interviews along the way without embarrassing himself or the party, his nomination is assured. Trump has to be able to go out, without the Teleprompter, give speeches, and also give press interviews. If he hides in a bunker for the next two weeks, he will damage himself with prominent Republicans and donors. They need to see that he really is growing up and toning down.
If Trump can do that, he is the nominee, and not just the presumptive nominee.
But if Trump cannot control himself and exercise self-discipline in the next two weeks, the Republican convention is going to spiral out of control and look to a savior. That savior is most likely going to come from Wisconsin. It will not be Paul Ryan, but Scott Walker.
Right now there are several separate similar efforts to unbind the delegates at the convention. The Rules Committee is key and sources I talk to expect the delegates to be split on the committee with about 30% for Cruz, 25% for Trump, and 45% willing to go in the direction that saves the party destruction. If Trump continues on like this week, those separate similar efforts will become one effort.
Behind the scenes, it has not gone unnoticed that many of the major donors who are still opposed to Trump were also Scott Walker fans. There are rumors cropping up that Walker might be wiling to entertain being a dark horse candidate if we get to the convention and Trump has spiraled out of control. Walker’s withdrawal of his Trump endorsement was seen as a positive sign in that direction.
Missing in all of this is Ted Cruz.
Nothing will happen at the convention without Ted Cruz’s blessing. Cruz may be placed in the very unique position of having to be the statesman and lead his delegates. Because of the remaining animosity between Cruz and establishment players, Cruz might very well be able to shape a ticket that benefits Cruz without putting him in the top slot. If that ticket then goes on to lose to Hillary, Cruz is the one who stopped Trump and put the party above his own desires when 2020 comes around. If the ticket wins, he becomes President of the Senate before becoming President of the United States. Or he just fully takes on leadership of the conservative movement. (more)

49 comments:

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Trump has to decide whether to be a Sonny or a Michael.

But if he is a Michael, he will eventually settle all family business.

Lem said...

Trump is going to be Trump.

Leland said...

I do think Trump needs not to have unforced errors, but the notion that he won't be a candidate is #NeverTrump wishful dreams. There's a reason he has the votes on the first ballot, and it is not because the GOPe has filled itself with glory. Paul Ryan has already committed so many errors; he'd do good to shut-up, watch, and learn.

edutcher said...

Oh, Christ, give it a rest.

Erickson is trying desperately to make himself look important. He wanted to be the head of the new Conservatarian Party, but nobody else, except for a few NeverTrumpers, thought it was a good idea. Right now Trump has 1542 delegates and the One True Ted 559 with 31 delegates still up for grabs.

There is no way in Hell anybody gets the nomination but The Donald unless the Rinse goes completely suicidal.

And what's this Sonny or Michael nonsense? The "outrage" was all manufactured by the McConnell crowd to make them look good in the eyes of the media. The base didn't give a damn. He objects to the Judge hearing his case because he's all mobbed up with La Raza and that's supposed to be racist? Ann Coulter showed how ridiculous that is.

Keep playing the "We don't want to offend anybody" line and all you'll get is President Cacklepants.

AprilApple said...

Paul Ryan does need to shut up. Stop giving in to the rules set forth by the pro-democrat hack media.

AprilApple said...

Ed- Trump is gonna hand it to Hillary if he cannot stop stepping on his own wanker.

Sixty Grit said...

Some people think a poorly written piece of fiction is somehow relevant to real life. We call those people cuckservatives.

Trooper York said...

Nice.

edutcher said...

AprilApple said...

Ed- Trump is gonna hand it to Hillary if he cannot stop stepping on his own wanker.

Sweetie, you and EBL do it more than he does.

You also want him to do what you claim lost McCain and Romney the Rainbow House.

Telling it like it is got him here. Being a pussy will do him in.

Sixty Grit said...

"Wanker is a term that literally means "one who wanks (masturbates)" but has since become a general insult. It is a pejorative term of English origin common in Britain and other parts of the English-speaking world, including Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. It initially referred to an "onanist" and is synonymous with the word tosser."

In order to step on one's wanker one would have to employ or otherwise possess a person specifically hired for that task. Perhaps a different slang word would have been a more suitable choice in that sentence. I am almost certain that other words exist.

chickelit said...

I learned from rcocean a few days ago that Erickson is funded by a major anti-Trump donor. Edutcher questioned this, but there wasn't any evidence to rebut it. It makes sense to me. Erickson is just looking for ways to reconnect and remain relevant.

The donnor class will eat its own.

AJ Lynch said...

aPRIL SAID:

"Paul Ryan does need to shut up. Stop giving in to the rules set forth by the pro-democrat hack media."

You are so right. Do we ever hear Dems put down other Dems? No, they never do. Does Paul Ryan ever viciously rip the Dems? No, he never does. Repubs are deluded into thinking politeness is the way to get things done. It isn't in the Imperial City and the Dems have proved it.

Trooper York said...

So let me get this straight. If Trump is a good boy and acts like the is the point guard for the Washington Generals the delegates that were elected to nominate Trump as President will do what they are legally obligated to do. Trump has to pass some test that these comb over cuckservative cocksuckers devise so he will be politically correct and not upset the media or the liberals who invite these scumbags to all the right parties.

Who are they putting their money on? Scott Walker. Who proved himself to be the wettest gaping pussy this side of Vanessa Del Rio. Walker couldn't even make it out of the first primary. Ric Wilson raped him out of millions of dollars for a bloated staff, pollsters and this new bullshit data nonsense. Wilson lasted two weeks with the Trump campaign before he got fired. Now he is all over the media blasting Trump and telling us how they have to take the nomination away from him. Give me a freaking break. If Scott Walker tries to put his pansy freaking toe in the water they will break it off and feed it to him like rancid Wisconsin cheese rind.

What a load of bullshit.

Sixty Grit said...

Ted Cruz? Yeah, he's important. About as important as Tom Cruise. This Erickson fellow seems about as in touch with reality as a Scientologist, that's for sure. Are we clear yet Erick?

Michael Haz said...

Meanwhile, Paul Ryan and a few others are meeting today at Mitt Romney's ski condo in Utah, at Romney's invitation. It's a safe bet that booze and cigars are not the topics of the meeting.

I really like Scott Walker, and worked my butt off for him in his last three gubernatorial campaigns, including help with organizing Tea Party rallies, door knocks, literature drops, phone banks, and so forth.

He's a great guy. And Hillary Clinton will mop the floor with him because he doesn't have the innate meanness necessary to knock her off of her pedestal. Trump does. Trump relishes that fight.

Sixty Grit said...

Could not have said it better myself, Haz. Walker did fight the forces of evil in the land of cheese, but once he suggested a wall of cheese wheels to keep the hosers in the great white north it became clear that he needs to get out more.

Wisconsin nice does not travel well.

Rabel said...

"Missing in all of this is Ted Cruz."

Missing in all this is the decision by the voters.

FIFY, Eric.

edutcher said...

AJ Lynch said...

aPRIL SAID:

Paul Ryan does need to shut up. Stop giving in to the rules set forth by the pro-democrat hack media.

You are so right. Do we ever hear Dems put down other Dems? No, they never do. Does Paul Ryan ever viciously rip the Dems? No, he never does. Repubs are deluded into thinking politeness is the way to get things done. It isn't in the Imperial City and the Dems have proved it.


Ronald Reagan's Eleventh Commandment: Thou shalt not speak ill of another Republican.

OK, I'll give April 500 words on this subject vis a vis Donald Trump without comment because he did violate it. Granted, in a primary contest against 16 opponents, and we can all argue whether that's an excuse, but, if you go after him, be prepared to do the same to Jeb!, the eunuchs on the Hill, Kasich, and, of course, the One True Ted.

Point here is that it's done and Trump won it - a lot more fair and square than others that tried. If McConnell, Ryan, and anybody else is still fighting that war, it's because they want to curry favor with the media and the Demos.

Which may well put them, to use one of the Lefties favorite lines, on the wrong side of history.

Chip Ahoy said...

Every two weeks is critical for Trump. Each week is the one he steps on a time bomb and national effort of destroy him by PC will prevail.

It must.

It always has. It always worked before.

Apologies for not reading beyond the name Erick Erickson. A few days ago I looked up his creampuff bully face to see what a massive pink prick looks like. Weird, huh? Like wanting to see what Richard Simmons looks like. That was the impulse.

If I was expecting any chance of anything remotely Viking then the image search will disabuse that idea permanently.

Rabel said...

I like Walker, but after watching him in the debates I can see that he's in no way prepared to run against the Clinton machine. It would be a shame to see him stoop so low as to get involved in an effort to overturn the primary results.

But since there's very little connection between anything Erickson writes and reality I'm not too worried.

edutcher said...

Donald Trump blasts Crooked Hillary for endangering national security with her email setup.

So, is he stepping on his wanker or acting like Sonny? After all, she's the first female nominee for President.

Unless, of course, you count Victoria Woodhull.

Methadras said...

I told you all that if Trump gets shafted at the convention its fuck you to the GOPe and blood will run. I hope security details for all of these motherfuckers will be up to speed. I just might buy a ticket to Cleveland. I'm single, pissed, and have nothing to lose. Fair warning, if you are an illegal piece of shit and you want to take it on yourself to be a rioter, then allow me to introduce myself. The hard way.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

It is Trump's thing to lose. Nothing I (of for that matter you) will say will win this or lose it for him. Trump can still be Trump without losing opportunities and blowing the election. He can win this thing by being smart or he can be reactive and lose. I liked his speech a lot, I thought it was pretty good. I hope he beats the old witch.

Poorly done fiction, perhaps. I liked the movie. Does me criticizing the Donald make me a cuckservative? That's a jibe like that makes me want to jump right on board the Trump Train and write him a big check (he is not self funding anymore, so you better start breaking out your credit cards and checkbooks).

Trump is probably not going to get shafted at the convention. The GOPe are way to passive aggressive for that. They will just keep undercutting him until November.

chickelit said...

The GOPe are way to passive aggressive for that. They will just keep undercutting him until November.

After which they will say "See, you rubes should have picked ¡JEB! Now look what you did."

Then, the whole cycle will start over again. The George Will Georgetown set still don't realize that they are electorally dead -- perhaps irrevocably so.

Sixty Grit said...

You self identified. And threatening to vote for Hillary does not change my opinion of your intellect or temperament - I know you cows stick with your own kind.

When you stand next to her your hooves look so slim compared to her cankles, so there is that.

Trooper York said...

This also answers the question as to what Trump should do with Cruz, Rubio, Kaisich and Walker. They need to get on the train or get squashed. You don't leave the enemy in your rear echelon when you go out into battle. They will undermine you and work to defeat you. If they not acquiesce and at least adopt a noncommittal neutral stance then Trunp should blast them and let them know that millions upon millions of Trump voters will remember how they are acting now. They don't have to work hard or work at all since that is beneath a congressman's dignity. But they don't have to provide soundbites for Hillary's commercials. If they do they need to be crushed. Everybody gets one. This is the one.

Next time Trump should not play so nice.

Trooper York said...

Trump's last speech outlines his real line of attack. He can consistently ask how the Clinton's have amassed this vast fortune while ostensibly being public servants and elected officials. How she sold her office for money and contributions to the Clinton Foundation that supported her husband and daughters opulent lifestyle. Once he hits that target how are Bernie's legions going to feel? They might not vote for Trump. But they could definitely stay home.

Trooper York said...

How is the sleazeball media going to cover up the financial improprieties. If they bring up Trump University you hit them with Laureate Education. Hit them with the $55 million they paid to the owner of that fraud while Bill collected $16 million. How did they become so rich? How did all of these congressman get rich? How did that homo kid toucher Speaker of the House make so much money that he could afford to pay hush money to the children he fingered? Trump has to let normal Americans know how rotten the system is and how rigged the elections have been. Stick it up that sanctimonious cunt Paul Ryan's ass. How did he get his money to build a giant wall around his property. How about Mitch McConnell. Drop a dime to him and ask if he wants the Trump organization to start investigate his business dealings and how it ties into the corruption of the Clintons. I bet there is a lot to find there.

Sixty Grit said...

I do like the Ryan's wall angle. If walls don't work, tear down that wall!

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Sixty: And threatening to vote for Hillary does not change my opinion of your intellect or temperament

Try not to lie. I know it is hard for you because you are old and the plaques and years of drinking shitty whiskey are probably frying your neurons, but I have repeatedly said I am #NeverHillary, I will never vote for that witch. Whether I vote for Trump or not, depending on what he does from now to November.

I hope Trump pulls it together and beats her (and makes me want to vote for him).

Trooper York said...

It is just a symbol of the utter hypocrisy of that sanctimonious cunt. That is how the Washington game is played. Stick it up their ass. Ryan is never going to be a full fledged supporter. If Trump wins he can deal to have him dumped as Speaker. If he doesn't win than Ryan's enmity don't mean jack shit.

Listen Trump has to treat this worhtless motherfuckeer the way Gaspipe talked to him when they were pouring the concrete on the Taj Mahal. Nice little career you have here Paulie. Shame if anything would happen to it. HOW ABOUT YOU SHADDAUPPA YU MOUTH!"

Chris Christie understands how this works. Why do you think he is being the good soldier. It ain't because he loves Trump. It ain't because he believes in Trump. He knows what side his baked potato is buttered on.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Or the doughnut is frosted on.

Trump still has to win before he can take fully care of business on the GOP side.

ndspinelli said...

A painfully predictable thread. But, always looking for the positive, at least no lame rice bowl references.

Walker is AA and will probably never be a Major Leaguer. That was quite obvious to any objective observer here in Cheddarland. At least he had the sense to realize that and went back to the bushes. I give him credit for that.

If the GOP think Trump is a disaster, let them try a coup @ the convention. Then they will see a disaster of biblical proportions. I don't think that will happen. I hope it doesn't, anyway.

edutcher said...

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

It is Trump's thing to lose. Nothing I (of for that matter you) will say will win this or lose it for him. Trump can still be Trump without losing opportunities and blowing the election. He can win this thing by being smart or he can be reactive and lose.

Maybe, but the constant carping doesn't help. His way has worked so far and I'm not the one to second guess him at this point, but there certainly does seem to be a hint sour grapes in some of the objections.

As I said, the point of Trump's message is the University case is a political hit. I even linked Ann Coulter's piece in my first comment.

Trooper York said...

This also answers the question as to what Trump should do with Cruz, Rubio, Kaisich and Walker.

They've been pretty quiet. It's McConnell and Ryan that have been shooting their mouths off. They've made it clear they're on the side of the Demos, so they get their cut of any deals, should Trump lose. If Trump wins, the deals end and their goose is cooked.

Once he hits that target how are Bernie's legions going to feel? They might not vote for Trump. But they could definitely stay home.

Last poll I saw said up to a quarter might do just that.

ndspinelli said...

I don't know if hardcore Bernie people stay home. Some will vote for Jill Stein, which is fine for our purposes of beating Hillary by any means necessary.

edutcher said...

Something else regarding Troop's point. Going after McConnell and Ryan takes the eyes off the prize.

If Trump wins big, which many, including many who were NeverTrumpers, have been saying will happen, he'll have the time - and the mandate - to deal with them as he sees fit.

One thing I've noticed on some other blogs, people are beginning to notice that McConnell and Ryan are doing this because, when it comes to the deals, they're on the other side.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

ed, I am not constantly carping. You are just 100% true believer. Which is fine.

edutcher said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
edutcher said...

No, you are constantly carping.

Some criticism is always justified, but when was the last time you said anything positive about him?

Here? Anything?

Think about it.

You've also beaten that drum true believer several times too often, along with the NeverTrumpers living rent-free. You want to dismiss the idea your criticism has less to do with him than what you want. You want him to act more like the One True Ted. We all get that.

I think his way seems to be working and I'm willing to go with it. He's going up against the dirtiest fighters this country's seen since the Civil War and he's doing better than anyone could have expected. My problem is, if McConnell or Ryan, or even a slug like Erickson says something, you seem to pick up on it uncritically. Just because the media doesn't like it doesn't make it a bad tactic.

It usually means it's a good one

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

[W]hen was the last time you said anything positive about him?

I said I liked his recent speech. A lot. 3:02 p.m.

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

I don't take what Erickson says seriously, I said above I doubted there would be any serious challenge to Trump at the convention. The GOPe are too cowardly to do that.

The fight that matters, the only fight right now, is Trump beating the Democrats. Now I am not completely sure Hillary will be the candidate. They may be setting her up and bring in Biden. But barring that, I want him to go destroy her.

And I run stuff against her all the time. Way more than you do. You seem obsessed with Cruz and the GOP. Obviously Trump has to watch the GOP, but the real opponent are the Democrats and their media allies.

chickelit said...

thing I've noticed on some other blogs, people are beginning to notice that McConnell and Ryan are doing this because, when it comes to the deals, they're on the other side.

It's also because of rice bowls.

edutcher said...

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

The fight that matters, the only fight right now, is Trump beating the Democrats. Now I am not completely sure Hillary will be the candidate. They may be setting her up and bring in Biden. But barring that, I want him to go destroy her.

You may be right. The Blonde, who did 5 years in oncology, is now pretty sure she's got a brain tumor, but I don't think even the Demos are crazy enough to run Halo Joe. Problem is, who else do they have besides Fauxcahontas and Bernie.

And I run stuff against her all the time. Way more than you do. You seem obsessed with Cruz and the GOP. Obviously Trump has to watch the GOP, but the real opponent are the Democrats and their media allies.

I'm not one of the contributors and most of what I link is to back up a point. Depends on what the topic is.

You seem obsessed with Cruz and the GOP. Obviously Trump has to watch the GOP, but the real opponent are the Democrats and their media allies.

Less Ted these days, although it ticked me when he joined in the anvil chorus blaming the San Jose riots on Trump, but, yeah, I do go after McConnell and Ryan (Rinse has been pretty good these days) because they are working with the Demos; no subtlety or subterfuge about it. It's not obsession, though; when you've got people who are supposed to be on your side doing the other side's dirty work, they need to be denounced.

They are what used to be known as fellow travelers. When the blacklist was in force, it was because those people were aiding and abetting the big enemy. Same here.

I guess I'm with Troop on that issue, but I don't think there's anybody here, with the possible exception of Titus, who doesn't realize the enemy is La Cosa Democrat.


[W]hen was the last time you said anything positive about him?

I said I liked his recent speech. A lot. 3:02 p.m.


Fair enough.

edutcher said...

PS I may link this again.

Just to see what we're up against, watch the GIF.

ndspinelli said...

Some folks just can't help themselves. Cheeseheads are almost too easy to bait.

chickelit said...

Cheeseheads are almost too easy to bait.

I agree. It's amazing that Paul Ryan fell for the latest anti-Trump hoopla.

chickelit said...

Is Paul Ryan going to the Kreisau Circle Jerk in Utah?

Evi L. Bloggerlady said...

Is Paul Ryan going to the Kreisau Circle Jerk in Utah?

He's going to Burning Man, as a submissive slave.

Michael Haz said...

It's amazing that Paul Ryan fell for the latest anti-Trump hoopla.

Paul Ryan, aka St. Paul the Pious, hasn't fallen for anything. What he has done is continue the kabuki he began when the great mentioners hinted he should be the speaker of the house.

"What? Me? I don't want that job. Nope, not interested" was the meme of a carefully orchestrated plan to rise to the position he fully wanted.

The same thing is happening now, with his repeat of the meme, only inserting the word president for the words speaker of the house.

What Ryan didn't say was "Hey, Mitt, thanks, for real, love ya, but I'll take a pass on the get-together in Utah. Seriously, thanks, but I'm not interested. Say hi to the wife. Take care. Bye."